859
FXUS64 KHUN 121727
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY (MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). EXPECT WE COULD SEE A
FEW 80 OR 81 DEGREE HIGHS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN NORMAL URBAN WARM
SPOTS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA.
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT LOOKING AT 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. IT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT, BUT LIKELY WILL BE A BIT LOWER
(30-35 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS) THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS (10 MPH OR LESS) AND FAIRLY MOIST FUEL LEVELS SHOULD KEEP
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, SOME PATCHY FOG (MAYBE
SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG) IN TN RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NE
ALABAMA WILL LIKELY FORM.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE TEXAS AND EXPANDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND PUSHING
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S AT LEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN GUIDANCE,
WONDERING IF MODELS ARE USING TOO MUCH CLIMATOLOGY TO COME UP WITH
HOW WARM IT WILL BE. THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL IN
CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 IN REALITY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S AT LEAST. SOME CLOUD
COVER MIGHT BEGIN TO TEMPER HIGHS A TAD. BASED ON THE PATTERN
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THOUGH.
MODELS TRY TO PUSH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS
HAVE THIS TROUGH AXIS FALLING APART AS IT ATTEMPTS TO DO SO.
MODELS MOVE A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
AND UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS REALLY SEEMS TO DISPLACE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND DEVELOP AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE INCREASED SHEAR AND FORCING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL COLD FRONT AS WELL. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT. HIGHER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THESE
EXPECTATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS WAS
INCLUDED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page