649
FXUS64 KHUN 090949
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
349 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
TROPICAL REMNANTS OF IDA AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CURRENTLY...HURRICANE IDA REMAINS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IDA WILL MAKE
LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE NORTHERN EFFECTS OF IDA WILL
BE FELT TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY AS SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...WHILE PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA MAY REMAIN
DRY.
ON TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF IDA BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH PICKS UP THIS SYSTEM. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WITH THAT
SAID...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MARSHALL...JACKSON...AND DEKALB COUNTIES BEGINNING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM CST TUESDAY. RAIN MAY MOVE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA SOONER THAN TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS
SYSTEM PICKS RAPIDLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
ALABAMA WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TAKES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. SIDED WITH THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
HUNTSVILLE 71 53 65 47 64 / 10 70 80 20 0
SHOALS 72 52 69 47 66 / 10 40 50 10 0
VINEMONT 68 53 63 46 64 / 10 80 80 20 0
FAYETTEVILLE 70 52 63 46 63 / 0 60 70 20 0
ALBERTVILLE 67 53 62 46 64 / 10 80 100 20 0
FORT PAYNE 67 52 60 46 64 / 10 80 100 30 0
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEKALB...JACKSON...MARSHALL.
TN...NONE.
KNS
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