380
FXUS64 KMOB 042047
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SURFACE MAP
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...STRETCHING FROM NEAR DESTIN TO NORTH
OF PENSACOLA AND MOBILE TO NEAR WAYNESBORO. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROF IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY WITH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROF INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA
COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE...SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND AREA
WIDE BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA (NORTH OF OUR CWA) FOR EARLY SUNDAY INTO
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO JUST BELOW OR AT SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MONDAY. /04
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
NO BIG CHANGES MADE IN THE
LONG TERM. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO
REFLECT CURRENT THINKING...AS WEAK FRONT SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. /04
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 05/00Z
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WILL BE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME FOG
PATCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT CATCH A RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BETTER ODDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE AL/MS BORDER...CLOSER TO AN
OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING. /11
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE DEPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH A
SLOW INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL INCREASE THE WESTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME ITS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE COASTAL
WATERS...FORECAST IS FOR WESTERLY BUT MAY SEE A LAND BREEZE INDUCED
NORTHERLY WIND AT NIGHT. FURTHER OFFSHORE...BEYOND 20 MILES EXPECT
WINDS TO BE NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. /11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 75 86 / 10 30 60 60
PENSACOLA 77 91 76 86 / 10 30 60 70
DESTIN 78 88 78 85 / 10 30 60 60
EVERGREEN 72 92 73 86 / 10 40 60 60
WAYNESBORO 74 92 73 92 / 10 30 60 60
CAMDEN 74 95 74 92 / 10 40 60 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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