905  
FXUS64 KMOB 251025  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
525 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE  
ANIMATION SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS  
EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT  
MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS SPREADING FROM FAR  
SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWESTERN LA AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WHERE REGIONAL RADAR  
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY  
ADVANCING EASTWARD. RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET ACROSS OUR FORECAST  
AREA AS OF 4 A.M., ASIDE FROM SOME VERY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. A WARM  
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING IS  
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,  
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY ADVANCES  
EASTWARD TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE PAST FEW RUNS OF  
THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE 26.00Z WRF-ARW LENDS CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MS  
COUNTIES ESPECIALLY AROUND AND AFTER 10 AM, BEFORE CONVECTION  
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST AL, GENERALLY WEST OF I-  
65 THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65  
CORRIDOR FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE EXPECT  
THERE TO BE OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT DE-STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY INCREASING  
TO 500-1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE  
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW  
AND UP TO 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY COULD ENABLE  
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO  
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER  
STORMS GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-6.5 C/KM AND WBZ  
HEIGHTS AROUND 9 KFT AGL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO LOOKS  
POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EAST. WE MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE BETWEEN 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S  
TO AROUND 80 INLAND, WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.  
 
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING  
AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WANES. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POPS LIKELY  
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS FORCING  
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY  
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES  
OVERHEAD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.  
/21  
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
THE ACTIVE WEATHER  
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW DISTINCT TROUGH PASSAGES OVER THE WORK WEEK.  
 
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT  
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SUNDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THIS  
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE, SOMEWHAT  
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LEADING TO A MOSTLY  
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED INTO  
THE REGION AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
WARM INTO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST WITH LOW TO MID 80S  
PREVALENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.  
ACCORDINGLY, LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE  
RATHER WARM AS WELL WITH LOW 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE BEACHES.  
 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN AS  
THE NEXT TROUGH NEARS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND  
LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WILL INCLUDE  
LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THE  
DYNAMICS WITH MONDAY'S SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE WEAKER THAN WHAT WE  
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW  
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING OWING TO MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO  
35 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. NICKEL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND  
GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE HAZARDS WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TO HAVE THE  
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND SHEAR ARE  
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ON  
THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY EVENING BUT  
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS  
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS THE LOW  
80S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED AT COASTAL  
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID  
60S. 05/RR  
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY  
COULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR  
TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT  
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN  
TEMPORARILY IN THE MID LEVELS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS THE  
NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LEADING TO  
MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER OUR AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS THE LOW 80S INLAND  
AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER  
WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE INLAND AND UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-10, A BIT  
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS  
SYSTEM MAY HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION OF SURFACE AND  
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR STRONG STORMS BUT WON'T GET OVERLY  
FOCUSED ON THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS  
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND AND MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. 05/RR  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ELEVATED SEAS BETWEEN 5-7  
FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BETWEEN A RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING  
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ALSO INCLUDING LOWER MOBILE BAY AND THE MS  
SOUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF  
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,  
WITH LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OTHERWISE  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 77 62 79 64 / 90 40 20 10  
PENSACOLA 77 64 76 64 / 80 60 30 10  
DESTIN 73 65 74 65 / 60 70 30 10  
EVERGREEN 78 60 80 61 / 80 60 30 10  
WAYNESBORO 76 61 81 62 / 90 40 20 10  
CAMDEN 77 60 80 61 / 80 60 30 10  
CRESTVIEW 79 61 79 62 / 60 70 30 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ631-632-  
650-655-670-675.  
 

 
 

 
 
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