887
FXUS64 KMOB 071953
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
252 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH MID WEEK AS "IKE" SLIPS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND HEADS WEST NORTHWEST. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM MAY NEED TO KEEP SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AT EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY I-65 AND EAST AS THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE BETTER
IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR POPS ON TUESDAY EXCEPT MAY BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME FRINGE
EFFECTS FROM IKE...HOPEFULLY WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BE SPUN UP THIS WAY. DO HAVE POPS
TRENDING LOWER TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING UP TO AROUND 105 NEAR THE BEACHES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /11
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IKE. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER WE WILL HAVE INCREASING
POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID ADJUST THE MID WEEK POPS DOWN A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. AS ALWAYS...
PLEASE STAY INFORMED BY KEEPING UP WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST. /11
AVIATION
(FOR 18Z FORECAST)GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE
FA WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER BOUNCING BETWEEN BKN AND SCT...BUT CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. ONLY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE NF FL COAST AS A WEAK GULF BREEZE MOVES INLAND INTO
TONIGHT.
/16
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST BEHIND AN UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ALONG THE US/CA BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...BUT AS THE CENTRE OF IKE MOVES
WEST OF CUBA LATE TUESDAY...INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT FLOW
AND GENERALLY SETTLED SEAS WILL AFFECT AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS.
AS IKE CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...AN INCREASED SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AS
IKE PASSES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORMS LEVELS. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
EASTERN TX GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN TAKING A NORTHEASTERN TRACK AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN THE ADVERTISED SOLUTIONS THE
FARTHER IKE GETS INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AS IKE APPROACHES.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 69 91 72 92 / 05 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 72 90 74 93 / 10 20 10 20
DESTIN 73 87 76 89 / 10 20 10 20
EVERGREEN 65 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 63 91 67 91 / 05 10 10 10
CAMDEN 64 93 67 92 / 05 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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