336
FXUS64 KMOB 091310 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
705 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
MESOSCALE UPDATE
09.12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INITIAL FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SHIELD OF RAIN HAS BEEN
MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
NOW MOVING EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. FORECASTERS HAVE MADE AN UPDATE TO
POP/WX AND QPF GRIDS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. SUBSEQUENT UPDATES THIS
MORNING TO GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN SHIELD...CLEANING UP AND REMOVING THE RAIN CHANCES TO ITS
WEST. RAINS NOW LOOK TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THE NOON
HOUR. LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER AWHILE LONGER...INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS. THUS...MADE A MINOR CHANGE TO SKY CONDITION
FOR THIS. NOTE CHANGE TO PRELIMINARY POPS BELOW WITH CATEGORICAL
COVERAGES IN THE EAST...MATCHING RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. /10
AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]
RAIN FORECAST TO END THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES. IFR/MVFR CIGS THOUGH...LOOK TO LINGER UNTIL 18Z
MOB/BFM AND 21Z PNS...GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF LOW STRATUS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AT UPDATE
TIME. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES
COULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. /10
.......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................
SHORT TERM
WILL BE TRENDING COLDER. IT APPEARS DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE OCCURRING BEFORE THE NOON HOUR WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...NORTHWEST
WINDS SET UP AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.
UPSTREAM...FORECASTERS SEE A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS IN THE CARDS TONIGHT AS THE HIGH NOSES EASTWARD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE MID
20S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE READINGS
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. BRISK CONDITIONS WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK TO CONTINUE NEAR THE BEACHES TONIGHT AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP A STRONG SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. /10
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER A MORNING START WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SQUEEZED OFF TO THE
NORTH AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND DEVELOPS
THE NEXT GULF LOW. THE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN STAYING WELL
SOUTH OF THE COAST. THE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ALLOW MORE COLD AIR TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK. WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE WARMER GULF OF MEXICO AND ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER. STILL...THICKNESS VALUES ARE CRITICAL
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND A JUST FEW DEGREES AND A MORE OR LESS
MOISTURE IN THE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE CAN MAKE OR BREAK A FORECAST.
WILL START OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALL
ZONES EXCEPT A SLEET/RAIN MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE DRY AIR MAY
ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING FOR SLEET...REST OF AREA MORE THAN LIKELY JUST
SEEING SPRINKLES. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY HAVE
COOLED ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO TO NEAR 40. THURSDAY NIGHT THE MIX WILL
SPREAD SOUTH TO THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY BEING ALL SNOW TO THE
NORTH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATION STATEMENT IN THE ZONES BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING. /11
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE GULF
LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AND MOVING EAST WITH A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY AFTERNOON EXPECT
THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM ENOUGH ALOFT THAT IT WILL ALL CHANGE TO A
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WITH UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. PARTLY
CLOUDY BUT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. /11
ENDED
MARINE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS SETTING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST GRIDDED
FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS SUGGEST EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR THE AL/WRN
FLORIDA OPEN GULF WATERS TO NOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MID WEEK...WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID GULF
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW RESPONDS BY INCREASING
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL OF A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY. /10
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
GUIDELINES BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS BEFORE
PUTTING UP A WATCH OR WARNING FOR THURSDAY. /11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 54 26 52 29 / 10 00 00 10
PENSACOLA 58 30 54 32 / 100 00 00 05
DESTIN 59 33 53 34 / 100 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 53 25 52 26 / 60 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 51 25 50 26 / 10 00 00 05
CAMDEN 51 25 49 26 / 60 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 57 26 53 25 / 100 00 00 05
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
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