878  
FXUS64 KMOB 172349 CCA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
649 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE  
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH  
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA NOTED NEAR KMOB AT 17/2330Z. EXPECT CLEARING  
SKIES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SIMILAR  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE  
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /21  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER  
THE AREA TODAY HAS RESULTED IN A MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL QUICKLY FADE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE  
TO BE MUGGY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE  
COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
MOVES EAST AND SENDS A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THE COMBINATION  
OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE, APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND INCREASED  
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY  
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOT AND  
MUGGY CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL  
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 100-106 RANGE. /13  
 
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WEST AND  
DEPART THE AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN  
INVERTED TROUGH MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE EAST OVER  
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE INCREASING  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS  
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY FOR  
STORMS TO TAP INTO BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY  
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS  
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS  
INLAND LOCATIONS.  
 
TOASTY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS  
IN THE MID TO LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. HEAT INDICES OF 102-106 CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE  
FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 70S FURTHER INLAND.  
07/MB  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER  
THE GULF CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST AND DAMPEN OUT AS UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. THIS  
PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE RETURN OF MORE DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE,  
ALTHOUGH CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED EACH AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY STRONG STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,  
GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SOUND LIKE  
A BROKEN RECORD EACH DAY - HOT AND MUGGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
TOP OUT IN MID TO LOW 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING HEAT INDEX  
WILL BE IN THE 102-105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG  
THE COAST TO THE MID 70S FURTHER INLAND. 07/MB  
 
MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL  
WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN  
THE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. /13  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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