680
FXUS64 KMOB 202110
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GETS ORGANIZED OFF THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST AS STRONG UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND OUT OVER THE WEST GULF. HAVE OPTED TO TRY AND BLEND THE NAM AND
ECMWF LOW POSITION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BOTH MODELS TAKE
SURFACE LOW TO NEAR MOBILE THEN WEAKENS IT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY. EITHER WAY...RAIN LOOKS DEFINITE ON SATURDAY AS ALL THE
MODEL DATA HAS A SURFACE LOW WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT INITIALLY
MOVING INTO A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL
SECTIONS. SURFACE LOW WINDS UP AND GOES EAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THEN THE CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LESS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...LIKELY ELEVATED. MAY BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING OR EVEN AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT ALL RAIN TO BE GONE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 60S WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST IN THE RAIN. LOWS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MOST PLACES. /11
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST
BY MID WEEK BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
NO POPS IN CURRENT EXTENDED AND WILL LET RIDE FOR THIS CYCLE. /11
AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (MVFR) AFFECTING MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS 06Z
THROUGH 12Z SAT. LOW CLOUD CIG MORE PREVALENT BY 12Z SAT WITH MVFR
TO IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z SAT THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
INCREASING BY 12Z SAT. 12/DS
MARINE
A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE GRADUALLY
INCREASING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF SATURDAY AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...OCCURRING MOSTLY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHTER FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE
AREA...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
12/DS
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT RAIN OVER ALL THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HUMIDITY REMAINING
ELEVATED...ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 51 61 49 63 / 30 100 40 20
PENSACOLA 54 65 53 64 / 30 100 50 20
DESTIN 55 67 57 64 / 30 90 60 20
EVERGREEN 45 60 50 61 / 20 90 60 20
WAYNESBORO 47 59 47 63 / 30 90 60 10
CAMDEN 46 60 49 61 / 20 90 60 20
CRESTVIEW 48 64 52 64 / 20 90 60 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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