984  
FXUS64 KMOB 240449 AAC  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1149 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...REGIONAL OBS AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT PATCHY  
MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS DEVELOPMENT, WILL SHOW THE  
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF BROKEN MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EARLY  
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT INTO DIURNAL CUMULUS BY MID TO  
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY  
SUNDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, BUT ANTICIPATED  
COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS MENTION AT THE FORECAST  
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL PERSIST.  
34/JFB  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...IT'S A QUIET AND MUGGY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
AN ONSHORE BREEZE ENSURING IT WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING (PARTICULARLY AROUND 925 MB.) THIS  
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOP OF SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING  
PATCHY STRATUS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE  
EVEN SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY  
IN THE MORNING AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. THE  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER  
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL  
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STILL KEEP  
COVERAGE ISOLATED OVERALL.  
 
THE BIG STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES, WHICH ARE  
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 105-108 RANGE IN GENERAL OVER THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND 102 TO 106 FAR INLAND. A HEAT  
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,  
BUT WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT NEW GUIDANCE. IF  
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED OR  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES A BIT MORE, THIS MAY PRECLUDE  
OVERALL HEAT INDICES REACHING THE CRITICAL 108 DEGREE MARK.  
REGARDLESS, EVERYBODY IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY WELL HYDRATED AND  
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTSIDE. 34/JFB  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
00Z ISSUANCE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT VIA LOW LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED LOW  
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR  
CIGS ALONG COASTAL AREAS, BUT CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN  
THE CHANCES TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINATE CIG IN THE FORECAST. A S  
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY  
ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  
34/JFB  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WILL START THIS FORECAST PERIOD  
WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AT HIGH LEVELS FROM  
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A SERIES OF  
MID LEVEL IMPULSES HAVE BEEN RIDING EASTWARD AT THE BASE OF THE  
UPPER TROF AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN ACTIVE ZONE OF  
DEEP CONVECTION ALIGNED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK  
EASTWARD TO NORTHERN GA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MOST ACTIVE  
ZONE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF  
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE EVOLVES OVER THE  
DEEP SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
OVER THE LOCAL AREA, TO ISOLATED AT BEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
HOLDS OVER THE GULF.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY, SOME 3 TO  
7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY, LOOK TO  
AVERAGE AROUND 3 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL. THE FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURE  
SUNDAY SHOWS A RANGE OF 103 TO 108 DEGREES IN HEAT INDICES. AT THIS  
TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR ISSUANCE OF A  
HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX 108 DEGREES AND GREATER) FOR SUNDAY, BUT  
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IT'S ALWAYS GOOD TO MAINTAIN HEAT SAFETY;  
TIPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT. /10  
 
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE BROAD UPPER  
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE  
AN UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES PASSES  
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,  
AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT  
TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MIGRATE  
EASTWARD WHILE AN WEST-EAST ORIENTATED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN  
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND.  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY RANGING FROM 93 TO 97  
DEGREES INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES, HEAT  
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES BOTH DAYS.  
AGAIN, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR ISSUANCE OF A  
HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX 108 DEGREES AND GREATER) FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS DUE TO DECREASING STABILITY, AND  
ESPECIALLY ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. /22  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHILE EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE, WHILE A LARGE  
CLOSED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN  
GREAT PLAINS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS  
BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK UPPER LOW  
PRESSURE AREA FORMING SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AND  
SHIFT SOUTH AS A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA REFLECTED AT THE  
SURFACE UNDER THE UPPER LOW POSSIBLY FORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST  
GULF OF MEXICO, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT  
THE WEEK, WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO  
ABOVE NORMAL. /22  
 
MARINE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORED TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT  
BECOME 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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