183  
FXUS64 KMOB 141717 AAB  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z ISSUANCE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TYPICAL AFTERNOON  
CU DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES GENERALLY FROM 3 TO 5 KFT. RADAR SHOWS  
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF I-65, SOUTHWARD TO OVER  
THE FL PANHANDLE. WITH SHRA/TSRA FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
THRU THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COAST, A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IS  
MAINTAINED. TSRA LOWERS CIGS AND VSBY TO MVFR CATEGORIES. BRIEF  
STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. AWAY FROM TSRA,  
WINDS LIGHT. /10  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR/AT ALL SITES.  
TEMPOS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND THERE WILL BE TEMPORARY  
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS IN ANY CONVECTION. WINDS, OUTSIDE OF  
CONVECTION, SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR  
LESS AT KMOB THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, KMOB WIND  
DIRECTION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY CONVECTIVE  
OUTFLOW. AT KBFM, ANTICIPATE TYPICAL BAY BREEZE/SEA BREEZE  
INTERACTIONS WITH EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. KPNS WILL ALSO SEE AN EARLIER SHIFT TO  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH  
CONVECTION SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT AT ALL  
TERMINALS, WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AT  
KPNS.  
 
JLH  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND WILL  
EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA  
TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. HEAT  
INDICES SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM 100 AND 105 DEGREES DURING PEAK  
HEATING. FURTHER EAST, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65, WEAKER  
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW  
FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS SHOULD FURTHER INITIATE ALONG THE INLAND  
ADVANCING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING ALONG STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS MAY SHIFT INTO THE  
NORTHERN ZONES OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE  
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE  
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG BY  
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
 
BY LATE EVENING, MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. /JLH  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK UPPER  
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO START THE SHORT TERM.  
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS RIDGE WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE DEEP LAYER  
PROFILE A BIT AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION, THOUGH SOME  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT,  
HAVE LOWER POPS AND HIGHER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS COVERAGE OF  
STORMS (AND THUS, CLOUDS) WILL BE LOWER AND HEATING WILL BE  
STRONGER. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S,  
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE. A MORE TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THEN DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH POPS AND TEMPS  
RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY. /49  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE PERSISTS, WE SEE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIG EAST  
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEIGHT FALLS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH, COMBINED WITH TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE, WILL SUPPORT A MORE SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,  
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASE ONCE AGAIN  
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND OR JUST UNDER  
SEASONAL LEVELS EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND  
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. /49  
 
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COASTAL  
WATERS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS  
THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. WINDS, WAVES, AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO  
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS  
DURING THIS PERIOD. /JLH  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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