209  
FGUS74 KSHV 201511  
ESFSHV  
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-  
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-  
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-  
419-423-449-459-499-210911-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1011 AM CDT THU APR 20 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING  
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MUD CREEK NEAR JACKSONVILLE  
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANGE THE  
MUD CREEK WILL RISE ABOVE 8.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID FOR APRIL 20 - JULY 20 2017  
 
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
 
MUD CREEK  
JACKSONVILLE 7E 9 3.9 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.6 10.0 11.2  
EAST FORK ANGELINA RIVER  
CUSHING 4N 10 11.2 12.5 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.6 16.3  
ANGELINA RIVER  
ALTO 8E 29 14.5 15.8 19.6 21.5 23.7 26.3 27.6 28.2 29.4  
LUFKIN 8N 10 7.1 7.1 8.7 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.2 14.2  
ATTOYAC BAYOU  
CHIRENO 3E 14 7.4 8.8 10.9 12.8 14.9 16.0 18.1 19.5 19.9  
AYISH BAYOU  
SAN AUGUSTINE 10S 12 7.1 7.1 8.7 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.2 14.2  
NECHES RIVER  
NECHES 4NE 12 6.2 6.2 6.3 7.4 7.8 10.4 11.2 12.1 15.0  
ALTO 8SW 16 7.1 7.1 10.6 12.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 17.6 18.3  
DIBOLL 4S 12 10.6 10.6 10.6 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.6 13.9 15.2  
ROCKLAND 26 8.4 8.4 9.1 9.5 10.8 14.2 17.2 18.6 25.9  
 
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  
LK PALESTINE 345.1 345.1 345.2 345.2 345.3 345.3 345.5 345.8 346.1  
 
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK USES PROBABILITIES COMPUTED  
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL  
AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY PROVIDING THE  
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK  
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT THIS URL: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV  
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).  
 
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DURING THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
VIII.  
 
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