002  
FLUS44 KTSA 221014  
HWOTSA  
 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
514 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-  
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-  
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-  
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-  
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-  
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-  
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-  
514 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
..SEVERE POTENTIAL RAMPS UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS  
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  
   
DAY ONE
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
TORNADO.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 IN NORTHEAST  
AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  
RISK...ELEVATED.  
AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAWNEE TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE.  
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.  
 
FLASH FLOOD.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAWNEE TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE.  
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.  
 
HEAVY RAIN.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAWNEE TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE.  
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF  
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO  
60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, HOWEVER, ISOLATED REPORTS OF  
LARGE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE BUT THOSE  
THREATS ARE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.  
 
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER WESTERN  
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
STORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND  
MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD EXIT WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY AROUND 4 AM. THE  
LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD AFFECT  
THE REGION AGAIN GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A LESSER SEVERE  
THREAT.  
 
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...  
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.  
   
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.  
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.  
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.  
 
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...  
 
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON. WITH UNSEASONABLY  
HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, THE RISK FOR ALL  
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING  
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY  
CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD  
WESTERN ARKANSAS BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WIND  
THREAT.  
 
DEPENDING ON THE FOOTPRINT FROM TONIGHT'S STORMS, SATURDAY'S  
STORMS COULD POSE A GREATER FLASH FLOOD RISK IF THEY TRAIN OVER  
THE SAME AREAS.  
 
WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL DECREASE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, STRENGTHENING THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE  
REGION. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL COME TO AN END OVER MUCH OF  
THE REGION. LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN, HOWEVER,  
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORM  
COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME  
COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA, AND COULD FOCUS AT  
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 
RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE INTENSIFYING HEAT AND HUMIDITY  
WILL BRING FORECAST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO POTENTIALLY  
DANGEROUS LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY, AND COULD POSSIBLY EXTEND THRU THE  
END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
LACY  
 
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