757  
FNUS74 KLZK 231139  
FWSLZK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR M/O 491 ROAD...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
639 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IMMEDIATELY.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, A STORM  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE SEEN. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO  
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE SEEN LATE  
SUNDAY TO MONDAY, THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE COMING WEEK.  
   
TODAY
 
 
TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.  
RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7  
MPH.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........19 INCREASING TO 51.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 4800 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 6243 FT MSL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............55 60 63 67 71 73 75 76 76  
RH..............68 61 57 52 48 45 43 42 44  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 13 13 14 15 17 18 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.  
RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 22 MPH.  
STABILITY CLASS.....E.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........56 DECREASING TO 10 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............75 73 71 69 68 67 66 65 64 64 63 63  
RH..............45 47 51 54 56 58 60 62 66 68 72 73  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 22 22 22 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.  
RH..................MIN 63 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 31 TO 40 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 37 TO  
46 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 32  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....C.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25  
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION..........42 INCREASING TO 56 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 72 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 94 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 100  
DECREASING TO 86 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 5100 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 6532 FT MSL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
TEMP............62 62 62 64 65 67 68 70 70 71 71 71  
RH..............77 79 78 76 72 68 67 64 63 64 63 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
EYE LVL WND GST.20 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 22 25 31 36 40 44 46 45 41 37 32  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 70 70 70 70 70 70  
 

 
FORECASTER...M TREXLER  
REQUESTED BY...ADAM STROTHERS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705011.0/LZK  
.EMAIL ASTROTHERS@FS.FED.US  
 
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