425  
FNUS74 KLZK 081930  
FWSLZK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELECTRIC ISLAND RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
230 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IMMEDIATELY.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S  
ACROSS ARKANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME  
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY  
DOWN IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW UNDER  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.  
RH..................69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 4 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING  
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........24 INCREASING TO 34 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 4700 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 5047 FT MSL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............69 73 75 77 78 80 81 81 81  
RH..............69 62 57 53 51 49 46 46 44  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.  
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
STABILITY CLASS.....E.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........27 DECREASING TO 7 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 1700 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 2095 FT MSL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............80 78 75 72 69 67 65 65 64 64 63 62  
RH..............46 47 54 60 69 74 80 82 84 85 90 92  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1  
EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW S S S SW SW SW W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82.  
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........9 INCREASING TO 18 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 4100 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 4475 FT MSL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............62 63 66 69 73 75 77 79 80 81 82 82  
RH..............93 90 85 75 69 65 62 61 56 54 51 49  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3  
EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
 

 
FORECASTER...D CAVANAUGH  
REQUESTED BY...KYLE LAPHAM  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1708828.0/LZK  
.EMAIL KLAPHAM@TNC.ORG  
 
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