924  
FNUS74 KLZK 101152  
FWSLZK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TEST FIRE...WFO LZK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON AUGUST 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IMMEDIATELY.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (501) 834-0308 AND ASK FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER IF  
YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
TODAY
 
 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84 AT IGNITION...MAX 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS WEST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION..........10 INCREASING TO 27 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 18 LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 9607 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 9000 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC MC  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............84 87 88 89 89 90 89  
RH..............70 61 57 56 54 52 54  
20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW NW NW W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 4 4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 8 7 6 5 3  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 70.  
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 90 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.  
STABILITY CLASS.....E.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
DISPERSION..........9 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 6673 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 6100 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV.....SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW  
TSTM COV........SCH  
TEMP............87 86 83 81 79 78 76 75 75 74 74 73  
RH..............57 61 67 72 77 76 82 84 84 87 87 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S SW SW SW W W W W SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 5 7 8 7 5 3 3 3 5 5  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 57 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION..........9 INCREASING TO 15 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 10041 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 9400 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............73 72 75 78 81 83 85 87 87 87 87 86  
RH..............87 90 84 79 74 70 63 59 59 59 57 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W W W SW SW SW S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5  
20 FT WIND GUST. 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W NW N N NE SE S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 6 6 5 2 1 1 2 3 5  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20  
 

 
FORECASTER...T JONES  
REQUESTED BY...NWS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1814339.0/LZK  
.DELDT 08/10/18  
.EMAIL THOMAS.E.JONES@NOAA.GOV  
 
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