413  
FNUS74 KLZK 191238  
FWSLZK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PCS BUFFALO RX...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
738 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON JUNE 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IMMEDIATELY.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (501) 834-0308 AND ASK FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER IF  
YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH  
NORTH WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO  
POP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81 AT IGNITION...MAX 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION..........39.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 5273 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 4300 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............81 82 84 84 85 86 84  
RH..............70 66 64 60 59 58 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 14 14 14 14 14 15  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 30 30 30 30 30  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 71.  
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 96 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
STABILITY CLASS.....D.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
DISPERSION..........26 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............83 82 80 78 77 76 75 74 73 73 72 71  
RH..............62 64 68 73 77 77 79 81 83 85 87 92  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 6 5 4 4 4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 13 12 10 10 12 12 12 10 9 8  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 65 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  
DISPERSION..........17 INCREASING TO 50.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 5331 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 4300 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MC MC CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC  
WEATHER COV..... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
TEMP............71 71 73 75 77 79 80 82 83 83 84 84  
RH..............93 96 91 85 79 74 71 70 68 66 65 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 10 14 16 18 20 20 17 16 15  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60  
 

 
FORECASTER...S CLARKE  
REQUESTED BY...R.L. SELF  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1811656.0/LZK  
.DELDT 06/19/18  
.EMAIL RLSELF@FS.FED.US  
 
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