231
FXUS64 KJAN 232108
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE STRATUS DECK IS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
OF COURSE IT IS ALWAYS BETTER TO PREDICT SLOWER CLEARING THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR AND WILL STAY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WE WILL BE LOOKING OUT FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATER THIS EVENING AS CLEARING OCCURS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION IS HIGHEST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS AWAY FROM THE UPPER DELTA AND WE WILL BE MONITORING.
A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO THE INHERITED LOW-END CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR TUES
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SQUEEZE OUT A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS...BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. /EC/BB/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRING A COLDER SHOT OF AIR TO THE ARKLAMISS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CHILLIER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH LOWS LOOKING TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
ERN MS. A 1026MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND TAKE RESIDENCE GENERALLY OVER THE
ARKLAMISS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT MAKING
FOR GOOD TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RETURN FLOW RESUMES WITH SOME WEAK WAA.
DURING THIS TIME...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TILT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES STARTS TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS....A SFC
LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS ON
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT IT COULD BE A
WET LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MEX MOS AS IT SEEMS
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM
RUN TO RUN. /28/
AVIATION
THE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WERE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. CEILINGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000FT WHILE MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
2-3KFT HAVE HUNG ON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAKUP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH SOME CLEARING AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DENSE LIFR FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS 09-13Z TUESDAY.
INCREASED FLOW OVER THE DELTA REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. LOOK FOR MORE BROKEN
STRATUS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. NO THUNDER BUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 45 65 45 63 / 0 15 22 3
MERIDIAN 41 67 40 65 / 0 8 21 5
VICKSBURG 46 66 43 63 / 1 19 22 2
HATTIESBURG 45 68 45 67 / 0 4 20 3
NATCHEZ 48 66 43 63 / 0 16 23 2
GREENVILLE 48 64 43 61 / 3 31 19 2
GREENWOOD 47 66 43 63 / 1 24 22 4
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/BB/28/22
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