542  
FXUS64 KJAN 240230 AAB  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
930 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED UP  
SLIGHTLY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS  
LEFTOVER CUMULUS FROM THE DAYTIME CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER EAST  
MS. A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE  
AREA AS WELL. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD,  
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND A STEADY  
SOUTHEASTLY WIND IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF  
ANYTHING, WINDS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM  
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN  
LOW STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP IN MOST AREAS  
OVERNIGHT, AND FORECAST LOW TEMPS WERE TWEAKED UPWARD BY A DEGREE  
OR TWO IN MANY AREAS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, NO NOTABLE CHANGES  
ARE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST. /DL/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS  
SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS PUT A  
LID ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA AT THE MOMENT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO  
SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORM  
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A STEADY INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN  
TONIGHT AS WESTERN STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. THIS WILL DRAW  
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SPREADING  
OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING,  
BUT SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL  
HELP MAX TEMPS APPROACH 80. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THE LOW LEVEL  
CAPPING INVERSION WILL PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, BY  
LATE AFTERNOON BETTER FORINCG IN THE WEST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE  
SOUTH SHOULD BE AS SUCH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE  
BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BETTER  
FORCING. /26/  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A PRETTY ACTIVE PERIOD OF  
WEATHER TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT. A STOUT CLOSED LOW SWINGING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO  
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO AND  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.  
AN ONGOING LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ARKLATEX  
FRIDAY EVENING, LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE CWA  
BETWEEN 11 PM FRIDAY AND 1 AM SATURDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS SOME  
SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE WANING DURING THIS TIME, AND THE LINE OF  
STORMS ITSELF FOLLOWING THE SAME WEAKENING TREND, IT DOES APPEAR  
THAT PARAMETERS ARE JUST ADEQUATE ENOUGH THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE  
SEVERE OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR  
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, BUT QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND EVEN A  
BRIEF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THERE WILL BE SOME DEEP-LAYER  
SHEAR PRESENT OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.  
 
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED  
LINE OF STORMS, LOOKS TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
WITH THE FRONT STILL LAGGING BEHIND, THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING  
AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WILL AGAIN RESULT IN STORMS  
BREAKING OUR ACROSS THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH THE  
BOUNDARY OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN,  
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE  
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUCH STORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING PERIOD LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
 
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING, WITH  
STORMS COMING TO AN END OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SHOWER  
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY OVER EAST  
MISSISSIPPI, AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT  
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. WITH RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDING  
EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK ON MONDAY, YET ANOTHER BOUT OF STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RACES EAST  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED WARM,  
MOIST, AND NOW VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AS A RESULT OF SOME VERY  
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, LOOKS TO RESULT IN YET ANOTHER (AND PERHAPS  
MORE SUBSTANTIAL) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE SEVERE STORMS  
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20  
CORRIDOR, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL FOUR DAYS OUT AND BASED UPON  
FUTURE MODEL ANALYSIS, IT'S LIKELY THAT THIS "THREAT AREA" WILL BE  
ADJUSTED AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS  
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO RESULT IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER BOTH TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER CONDITION WILL ALSO  
EXIST DURING THE TIME. /19/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MVFR  
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 24/08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF  
THE PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE  
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA TOMORROW. /28/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 64 80 64 79 / 6 13 66 69  
MERIDIAN 62 78 60 77 / 10 9 28 75  
VICKSBURG 64 83 64 78 / 2 15 83 62  
HATTIESBURG 64 79 63 80 / 14 21 32 75  
NATCHEZ 64 81 65 80 / 3 18 81 59  
GREENVILLE 63 80 62 76 / 2 13 88 65  
GREENWOOD 64 79 63 77 / 3 10 78 69  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DL/26/19/28  
 
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