942
FXUS64 KJAN 220153 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATE
FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ABOUT TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS
TO STEADILY PUSH E/SE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE
SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. DRIVING THIS LINE IS A COMPACT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN OK AND A LARGE COMPOSITE COLD
POOL (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) WHICH HAS CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE
OVER NE TX/NW LA/SW AR. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME BETTER BALANCED WITH THE CONVECTION AND THIS
SHOULD PROVE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE IT MAY RUN OUT OF STEAM. INSTABILITY IS NOT
GREAT (1500 J/KG MLCAPE)...BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS LOOK TO SUPPORT SVR
STORMS THIS EVENING AND A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE LINE COULD BE WITHIN THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 130 AM...THEN DIMINISHING EAST OF THAT
AFTER 1-2 AM.
AS FOR HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. THE EARLIER THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
HAS DECREASED DUE TO 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED TO THE NE AND THE
LINEAR COMPLEX PROPAGATING TO THE E/SE. A SVR TS WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. /CME/
AVIATION
TIMING THE RESTRICTIONS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE
FOCUS TONIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-14Z WED
MORNING. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WED
DUE TO WHAT IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE HAPPEN FROM THE STORM COMPLEX
TONIGHT...THUS WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. /CME/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 85 61 90 / 79 48 9 6
MERIDIAN 65 85 60 90 / 41 43 22 5
VICKSBURG 70 86 59 89 / 100 43 5 5
HATTIESBURG 68 87 67 90 / 31 40 17 10
NATCHEZ 70 86 64 88 / 95 49 10 15
GREENVILLE 68 85 61 88 / 100 34 3 3
GREENWOOD 69 84 58 87 / 100 43 4 5
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CME/
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