459  
FXUS64 KJAN 152037  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS  
HEAT STRESS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI  
HAVE KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 70S PROVIDING SOME RELIEF  
FROM THE HEAT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN  
EFFECT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EAST MISSISSIPPI BUT REMAINS IN  
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND  
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.  
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOST  
SITES WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WL REMAIN  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADING OVER OUR CWA  
FROM THE WEST WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH  
OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION  
OF CONVECTION IN OUR EAST AGAIN AND WITH A LITTLE GREATER  
COVERAGE INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON  
HIGHS AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
AREA. WL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED AREA IN OUR HWO FOR HEAT INDEX  
VALUES AOA 105F OVER THE DELTA REGION AND CARRY A LIMITED AREA  
ELSEWHERE. WL HOLD OFF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY THIS FORECAST  
PACKAGE BUT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY FOR AT  
LEAST THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS  
REACH INTO THE MID 90S AND LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED.  
/22/  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND....A MORE ACTIVE AND DYNAMIC  
WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE MID TO LONG TERM PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST. AS WE GET INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WE'LL BE UNDERGOING AN  
UPPER PATTERN CHANGE. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WHILE STOUT UPPER  
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN UPPER NW FLOW FOR THE MS VALLEY REGION AT LEAST THROUGH  
MIDWEEK.  
 
A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE  
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ARKLAMISS BUT WILL GET CLOSE  
ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE STORMS ON TUESDAY. HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN  
AN ISSUE ON TUESDAY BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF THE CRITERIA BEING MET WILL BE IN  
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS WHERE THE RIDGE OUT WEST  
WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION. SOME STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE  
ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW  
PATTERN COULD APPROACH THE REGION ON LATE TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. ITS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PUT AN EXACT TIME ON  
EACH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE SO POPS AND A MENTION OF STORMS WAS  
CARRIED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL  
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS SOLUTION  
COULD RESULT IN A RETURN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND INCREASING  
HEAT STRESS THREAT. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A MORE NOTABLE UPPER  
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN  
THE WORK WEEK AND BEGINNING TO DEEPEN AND SLIDE SE GREAT LAKES AS  
WE GET EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST IMPACTS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP DISTURBANCE LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE  
ARKLAMISS, IT COULD PUSH A FRONT INTO THE AREA, INCREASING OUR  
CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.  
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WERE NOTED ON RADAR AT 1730 OVER EAST  
MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS AT GTR-  
MEI-HBG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST  
INTO CNTRL MS AND AFFECT GWO-HKS-JAN BY 21Z. AWAY FROM TSRAS VFR  
CONDS WL CONT THROUGH MON MORNING. CONVECTION LOOKS TO GET AN  
EARLY START IN EAST MS MONDAY AND WL COME IN VCTY OF MEI-HBG BY  
17Z. /22/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 76 93 75 93 / 14 46 31 52  
MERIDIAN 74 92 75 93 / 30 71 37 59  
VICKSBURG 76 95 76 93 / 6 26 29 49  
HATTIESBURG 76 92 74 92 / 18 77 31 60  
NATCHEZ 76 93 75 93 / 7 21 21 54  
GREENVILLE 76 95 75 92 / 8 50 44 49  
GREENWOOD 76 93 74 92 / 13 44 45 48  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-  
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-  
023>026.  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.  
 

 
 

 
 
JPM3/22  
 
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