529  
FXUS64 KJAN 251531 AAC  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1031 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
PREV UPDATE HAS CAUGHT THE MORNING PRECIP EVOLUTION WELL AND THERE  
STILL REMAINS SOME ACTIVITY BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR THE  
ACTIVITY DECREASING. THIS FITS WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS WELL  
AND THIS UPDATE WAS TO KEEP THAT EXPECTATION WITH LOWERING POPS  
INTO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS TO LOWER  
HIGH TEMPS TODAY. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO  
HOLD STEADY MORE AND ONLY SLOWLY WARM AS WE GO INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. /CME/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING AND ADJUST  
THE LOCATION/ORIENTATION OF THEM ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT AREA OF  
PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS INCREASED  
CONVERGENCE/LIFT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE  
AREA AND AIDED LIFT ALOFT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THESE HAVE  
COMBINED TO SUPPORT HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH A SLOW  
EASTWARD DRIFT. ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS,  
BUT A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LATEST GUIDANCE  
HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ONTO THIS SITUATION AND INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY  
TO MAINLY BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE AFTERNOON LOOKS  
TO SEE DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS AND DRIER AIR  
FILTERS IN. THE POPS/WEATHER WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW THIS TREND.  
/CME/  
 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:  
 
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST  
OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE  
THAT THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN WILL  
BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO  
SET UP AFTER THAT. A FEW QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS  
WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS AS A 1025 MB SURFACE SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. DRIER AIR  
AND A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE  
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS  
REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY A RETURN OF  
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN UPTICK  
IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH A BROAD RIDGE  
WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK, AFTERNOON SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
CHECK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. /NF/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BRIEFLY  
LOWER VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY  
WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL STIES. /NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 82 63 87 66 / 44 2 1 5  
MERIDIAN 83 63 86 65 / 29 1 1 5  
VICKSBURG 82 63 86 66 / 50 2 1 5  
HATTIESBURG 84 66 86 66 / 22 2 4 5  
NATCHEZ 81 65 85 67 / 25 3 5 5  
GREENVILLE 84 63 85 66 / 11 0 0 4  
GREENWOOD 84 62 85 65 / 10 0 0 4  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NF/17/CME  
 
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