856  
FXUS64 KMEG 300425  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1125 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CALM  
DOWN SOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE  
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
ARS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017/  
 
CURRENTLY FEELS LIKE SUMMER OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN  
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS  
WERE ADDING SOME RELIEF TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 90F.  
 
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...CONVENTIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODELS  
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT UPPER  
LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO AND THE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD IN THE  
EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. LEANING WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS  
GENERATED FROM THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEPING THE LOW DELAYED TOMORROW  
AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE SURFACE LOW IN  
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BEFORE  
OCCLUDING. STORMS SEEN CURRENTLY OUT IN WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE  
BEEN ABLE PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDDAY  
LZK SOUNDING NOW REFLECTS A BROKEN CAP. THE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS  
REMAINED SUBSEVERE DESPITE THIS AND THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW IN  
THE REGION. WITH THE CAP STRONGER IN OUR REGION BELIEVE THE  
EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...AFTER 30/09Z THINKING.  
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAINED BACKED AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION  
ARRIVES LENDING TO SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION...HOWEVER MIDLEVEL  
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BACKED...ALLOWING FOR SLOWER MOVING AND  
TRAINING OF CELLS. DUE TO STORM COVERAGE...HAVE BACKED OFF THE  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO  
HINTING ON A WAKE LOW SITUATION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LINE AS  
GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN STRONG. SO THE HIGHEST  
WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE  
NEEDED. CAPE AMOUNTS TODAY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3500 TO 4000  
J/KG...BUT WILL EASILY BE CUT IN HALF TOMORROW AS THICKER CLOUD  
COVER KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ALL IN ALL A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND A MODERATE FLOODING RISK FOR 3-5 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL SEEMS REASONABLE. TOMORROW EVENING RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL  
TRANSITION EAST AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  
SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE  
50S...BUT A CONTINUING BREEZE SHOULD DAMPER ANY FOG POTENTIAL.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE  
MIDSOUTH WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL  
RUN JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...MID RANGE MODELS HAVE  
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT CUTOFF 500MB LOW FORMING IN THE  
RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TRACKING THE  
LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE ARLATEX AND INTO MISSISSIPPI. THIS  
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AND A RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. CUT-OFF LOWS ARE KNOWN FOR  
REMAINING STATIONARY WELL BEYOND MODEL FORECASTS SO CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW FOR ANY BIG WEATHER IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON HRRR  
DATA.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE TENDENCY HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND. BRIEF IFR OR  
EVEN LIRF CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER PREVAILING CONDITIONS  
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.  
 
BACKED OFF OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT....BUT ANY  
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 10 AND  
15KT OVERNIGHT 15-20KT TOMORROW. HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT WILL  
RETURN TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 31/06Z.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-  
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR CALHOUN-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-  
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-  
SHELBY-TIPTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
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