328
FXUS64 KMEG 060122
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
822 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008
DISCUSSION
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH IS ON THE TAIL END OF AN ACTIVE
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN PROGRESS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. A H5 SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCED CONVECTION
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS.
RECEIVED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO REFORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40. WILL WAIT UNTIL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ENDS BEFORE UPDATING
THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG BUT FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE
STAYED UNDER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR.
AREAS OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MUCH OF THE SAME LOCATIONS AS LAST NIGHT. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
HELPING TO INITIATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AGAIN BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. AS A RESULT...WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
EVENTUALLY BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE GREATEST.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY AND WARM WITH SOME AREAS NEARING THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S WITH LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MEM 72 91 75 92 / 30 20 10 10
MKL 66 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 70 93 73 95 / 30 20 10 10
TUP 69 88 71 90 / 40 30 10 20
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
KNS/RJO
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