051  
FXUS64 KMEG 240310  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1010 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS  
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH WITH A SE BREEZE  
AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UPDATED  
FRIDAY NIGHT'S POPS EARLIER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST  
GUIDANCE THAT SLOWS THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS IN THE MEMPHIS AREA TO  
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES NEEDED.  
 
SJM  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017/  
 
CURRENTLY A PLEASANT SPRING DAY OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH GENERALLY  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 60F ACROSS THE  
FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MORNING CLOUD COVER LINGERED...TO  
NEAR 80F IN THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES. WINDS WERE IN THE 5 TO  
15 MPH RANGE FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTH.  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES WILL CLOSE OFF AT 500MB AS IT SLIDES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS  
EARLY TOMORROW. THIS DEEPENING WILL TRIGGER THE INTENSIFICATION OF  
A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT WHILE SURGING A WARM  
FRONT NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN  
RESPONSE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE  
DELTA COUNTIES LIKELY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TOMORROW.  
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS  
850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 60 KTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. DESPITE WAA CLOUD COVER AND FEW POP-UP  
SHOWERS IN THE WEST THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY  
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF  
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW EVENING AT WHICH  
TIME THE STORM MODE SHOULD BE MAINLY LINEAR WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING  
SEGMENTS. MODELS KEEP HINTING THAT A WEAK WAVE WILL FORM OUT  
AHEAD OF THE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THAT  
WOULD BACK WINDS 10 OR 20 DEGREES PROVIDING THE BEST WINDOW FOR  
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IF ANY STORM FORMS  
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL WANE SOMEWHAT  
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EITHER NEW CELLS FORM ON THE COLD FRONT OR  
THE NEARLY STALLED LINE INTENSIFIES FROM CAPE INCREASING BY MIDDAY.  
THIS NEW CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD  
POSE A GREATER HAIL THREAT AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL  
BE AT THEIR MAXIMUM. WHERE THESE NEW STORMS FORM IS STILL  
UNCLEAR, BUT LIKELY THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST  
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EVENING.  
 
SUNDAY...A QUICK PASSING RIDGE WILL DRY OUT THE REGION...WITH MILD  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S/50S.  
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  
 
MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR  
STORMS...OF WHICH A FEW COULD AGAIN BE SEVERE. THE GFS CURRENTLY  
IS FARTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRIGGERING BOTH  
BETTER SHEAR AND CAPE...WHILE ECMWF IS SOUTH AND MORE CONSERVATIVE.  
 
EXTENDED PERIOD...STORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST AGAIN BY  
NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MILD AND THE  
FLOW ALOFT FAIRLY STRONG. A SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FOR THURSDAY.  
IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OVER  
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO  
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF  
IFR CEILINGS. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN  
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH FAR WESTERN  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD  
AFFECT TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE  
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS STARTING  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVER WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP  
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-  
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-  
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DUNKLIN-  
PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR COAHOMA-  
DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.  
 
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DYER-  
LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
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