772
FXUS64 KMEG 242341 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND OF
THEM.
AT 330 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OVER WEST TN AND FAR NORTH MS. A COLD FRONT
WAS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER...NEAR A CARUTHERSVILLE MO TO
MARIANNA AR LINE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S
OVER NE AR TO THE MID 60S OVER NE MS.
THROUGH 8 PM CST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40. APPEARS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TN RIVER AND
MS/AL STATE LINE BY 8 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND PROBABLY BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR A TUPELO MS TO PARSONS TN LINE BY 8 PM. SKIES
QUICKLY WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL. MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S APPEARED
REASONABLE...THOUGH THEY MAY BE TOO WARM IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCEPTED MOS LOWS IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE AS WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
THANKSGIVING DAY...A BREEZY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLOUD UP NORTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO MEMPHIS TO TUPELO MS LINE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR PARIS TN. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE 12Z MAVMOS AND METMOS THINKING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WENT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 12Z MEXMOS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
50S...THEN LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN GEM FASTEST...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE
RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...TOOK A
BLEND...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
APPEARS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET WET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA
WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MBS
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
KHKA...TO KMEM...TO KUTA...AND KGLH. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR KMKL
AROUND 02Z AND KTUP AROUND 04Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY AT
MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH ALONG WITH BR COULD RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MILES. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
BY 03Z AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
BORGHOFF
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MEM 43 61 40 53 / 0 0 10 10
MKL 40 59 36 51 / 10 0 10 10
JBR 42 59 37 50 / 0 10 10 10
TUP 43 61 38 55 / 10 0 0 10
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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