674  
FXUS65 KFGZ 210425  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
925 PM MST THU JUL 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
EXPECT VERY ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH  
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER STORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
MUCH QUIETER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. SEVERAL FACTORS  
WENT INTO THIS, MAINLY THE ATMOSPHERE WAS A BIT WORKED OVER, A BIT  
LESS FORCING AND NEARLY NEUTRAL STEERING FLOW. THERE IS STILL SOME  
POTENTIAL THAT AN MCS COULD FORM JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING  
AND PUSH SOME ACTIVITY BACK NORTH. EVEN IF THIS DID HAPPEN, IMPACTS  
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  
 
MODELS FORECAST MORE WEAK STEERING FLOW TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THE  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BE VERY MOISTURE RICH. NORTHEAST  
THROUGH EAST STEERING FLOW AND SOME SHEAR RETURNS SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY. LONG STORY SHORT, WE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH MOISTURE AND  
CONVECTIVE LEVELS REMAINING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS LOOK FINE AND ASIDE FROM RADAR AND MET  
WATCH, THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE
 
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA  
TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN TO KINW TO KRQE. A  
SIMILAR DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, SCT TO NUMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD  
+TSRA AFT 17Z-19Z. MVFR/IFR IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION  
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAIN  
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT. EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER  
PATTERN ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...PETERSON  
AVIATION...PETERSON  
FIRE WEATHER...RR  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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