401  
FXUS65 KFGZ 271015  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
315 AM MST SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT  
WINDS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER  
ARIZONA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES  
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER  
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE  
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER TODAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW  
CLOUD BUILDUPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY WILL AMOUNT TO  
NO MORE THAN SOME VIRGA OR A STRAY SPRINKLE.  
 
FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD  
OVER ARIZONA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS  
THE STATE. UNTIL THEN, MOISTURE WILL NUDGE UPWARD AS FLOW FROM  
OVER NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS FROM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA  
TRICKLES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE WILL BE JUST  
ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A BETTER  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE THE BEST CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESIDE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA  
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES. THE FINAL DAY FOR ANY REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
WILL LIKELY BE ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.  
 
BEYOND THURSDAY...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER ARIZONA.  
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF  
OF CALIFORNIA BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERWHELMED BY THE  
DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT. PRETTY TYPICAL STUFF AS WE SLOWLY MAKE OUR  
WAY TOWARD THE MONSOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE
 
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRUSH  
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE  
GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER  
THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL  
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND A SLIGHT  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM  
AVIATION...MAS  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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