473
FXUS65 KFGZ 091018
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST WED JUL 9 2008
SYNOPSIS
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER CA CONTINUES TO
BRING A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHILE EASTERLY
FLOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ MAINTAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THAT AREA.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIM AND TO THE SOUTH.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
MOST OF AZ. MODELS INDICATE A NUMBER OF S/W TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW AND THESE FEATURES WILL COUPLE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER PUSH OF
WESTERLIES IN THE AREA AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DRYING TREND.
AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE
EXPECT SCT FAIR-WEATHER CLOUDS
NORTH OF KGCN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...AN
EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 10KFT AGL WILL
BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT TSRA FROM 17Z-19Z
THROUGH 02Z-03Z WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE PERIOD RESULTING IN INCREASED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT NORTHERN ARIZONA.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC.............ONTON
AVIATION/FIRE WX...PETERSON
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page