236  
FXUS65 KFGZ 200952  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
252 AM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER  
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES  
WILL WARM ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY, THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY TO  
CHALLENGE LONG STANDING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH  
THANKSGIVING DAY THEN SLOWLY HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND.  
 
FOR TODAY...VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG NIGHTTIME  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE CHILLY LOW  
TEMPERATURES THIS MORN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ANOTHER  
5 DEGREES OR SO OVER SUNDAY AS A MILDER AIR MASS MOVES IN. LOOK  
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO  
THANKSGIVING DAY THEN SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE  
RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND PERIODS OF  
HIGH CLOUDS. ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HIGH AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM  
AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE RESULT  
WILL BE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW LONG  
STANDING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SEASONABLY MILD UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE  
IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM  
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE AT ANY DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION STILL  
APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN TEN DAYS AWAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH  
INCREASING MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS  
ARE ANTICIPATED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY AND  
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PERIODS OF HIGH  
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-  
NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER BECOMING 15+ DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM  
AVIATION...KD  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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