752  
FXUS65 KFGZ 191643  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
943 AM MST THU APR 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED  
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS IN STORE FOR A WINDY DAY AS A STRONG  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. WIND ADVISORY AND WARNING  
PRODUCTS AS WELL AS A DUST STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO  
NEEDED CHANGES THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD  
SHAPE. WE'LL BE WATCHING A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE  
AREA THAT COULD INHIBIT SOME STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN, BUT  
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR PRETTY THIN AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY. NO  
UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/
 
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR  
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING  
AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO  
TONIGHT LEADING TO MORE STRONG WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 700  
MB WIND SPEEDS OF 50-60 KTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL TRANSLATE  
TO WIDESPREAD ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL GUSTS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.  
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND  
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN THIS AREA, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF  
55-65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ELSEWHERE. THE  
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST  
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR  
ZERO AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND PRODUCTS AND THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ALL ARE  
IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL ON THE KAIBAB  
PLATEAU, EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIQUID  
AMOUNTS OF 0.10" OR LESS.  
 
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. LONG-RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO  
DIVERGE MID NEXT WEEK, BUT LOOKS LIKE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS  
COULD BE ON THE WAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE
 
EXPECT VERY STRONG SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH 03Z FRI DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. SURFACE WINDS - SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 20-35 KTS  
WITH GUSTS 40 TO 60 KTS, FASTEST SPEEDS ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE  
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AFT 03Z FRI, WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10-  
20 KT GUSTS TO 30 KT, AND SHIFTING DIRECTIONS TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, EXCEPTIONS ARE AREAS IFR IN  
BLOWING DUST FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE 18Z-03Z, AND AFT  
06Z FRIDAY AREAS MVFR WEST ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY AS CIGS FALL TO  
NEAR 3000 FEET. ISOLD TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN MAINLY N OF A KFLG-  
K0V7 LINE AFTER 06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF  
AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS  
AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE REGION  
TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN NAVAJO AND APACHE  
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER FOR ALL BY FRIDAY  
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MUCH LESS WIND IS  
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS RETURN  
STARTING SATURDAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST  
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ012>017-039-040.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ104>118-  
137>140.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>011-037-038.  
 
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ005-  
009>014-039-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MCT/TPS  
AVIATION...JJ  
FIRE WEATHER...DL  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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