076
FXUS65 KFGZ 091034
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE FEB 09 2010
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND FAIR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK...WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD NEAR THE ARIZONA-MEXICO
BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE STORM'S EVENTUAL TRACK...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 4500-5000 FT RANGE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
SHIFT APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE FORMING OVER
THE WEST AND THE MAIN JET STREAM HEADING TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL
STILL BE A THREAT OF A WEAK STORM OR TWO DIVING ACROSS ARIZONA...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WITH AREAS
MVFR AND LCL LIFR/IFR OVER AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THRU
16-18Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG PSBL THRU
16Z. AFT 10/00Z -SHRA/-SHSN TO REDEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
AREAS MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC.............KD
AVIATION...........DB
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.
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