554  
FXUS65 KFGZ 270448  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
947 PM MST WED APR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS TO FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL  
INCREASE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS  
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY  
EASTERN ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR  
SUNDAY.  
 

   
DISCUSSION
 
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN  
AND UTAH THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA  
TONIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE KAIBAB  
PLATEAU TO THE FOUR CORNERS. BREEZE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR  
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS  
WELL.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /227 PM MST/
 
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, WITH BREEZY  
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES  
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER  
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW 30'S TO  
MID 40'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. IN ADDITION, A PASSING  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FAR  
NORTHERN ARIZONA, WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEAR THE FOUR  
CORNERS.  
 
ON THURSDAY, A APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE  
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOST OF THE REGION WILL  
EXPERIENCE WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE;  
HOWEVER, AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EAGER TO WINSLOW TO  
THE FOUR CORNERS MAY SEE GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.  
 
ON FRIDAY, BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT  
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL  
BE OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES IN EASTERN ARIZONA. IN  
ADDITION, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER, WITH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST PLACES. WELL BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITS OVER  
NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION, MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE  
WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO A HARD FREEZE IN THE 20S FOR THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS EACH MORNING, WITH LOWS EVEN APPROACHING THE FREEZING  
MARK FOR VALLEY AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SUCH AS WINSLOW  
AND ST JOHNS. A STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST COAST TOWARD ARIZONA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL  
DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT -SHRA ALONG AND  
NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE UNTIL AROUND 12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT  
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AHEAD  
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. LOWER  
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL APPROACH CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES  
AND WIND SPEEDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY BUT THESE  
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG LIVED. THERE IS  
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE UTAH BORDER AND FOUR CORNERS  
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLDER WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL  
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARIZONA\NEW MEXICO LINE.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MAS/RR  
AVIATION...MAS  
FIRE WEATHER...SUK  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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