695
FXUS65 KTWC 072050
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL TAKE THE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SONORA
CHIHUAHUA BORDER NEAR THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT US A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WHILE THE CONVECTION WAS HEADED NORTHWEST TOWARD
AZ...AND A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20S...AND
THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WILL KEEP AZ DRY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS NEAR CLOUD
BUILDUPS.
AFTER THE LOW EXITS...EXPECT SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MILD TEMPS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO SE
AZ TUESDAY. MORE LIKELY WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ABOARD SE WINDS RATHER THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS POINT TO AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN US DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES LIKELY TO AFFECT SE ARIZONA BUT AN INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SOME
COOLING ALSO A GOOD BET AS HEIGHTS DECREASE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WHITES FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIP...KD
AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO OCCUR INTO
SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page