523  
FXUS65 KVEF 232208  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
208 PM PST THU NOV 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RECORD CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE  
NEXT WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM  
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED WINDS, COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES OR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
UNYIELDING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT  
ON THE WEATHER AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO DAILY RECORD VALUES  
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY, SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD GOING  
INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS ITS APPROACH TO THE  
WEST COAST. LOCALLY, THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY, SOUTHERLY WINDS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN EACH AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED WARM  
TEMPS. RIDGETOP WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL INCREASE  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER.  
WINDS ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WILL FOLLOW SUIT A BIT LATER  
INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN  
THESE WINDS MAKING IT DOWN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WIND ADVISORIES  
MAY BE NEEDED. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN SIERRA LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE EXISTENCE OF A TROUGH SWINGING  
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE, SO  
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE AND MINIMAL CHANGES  
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS SHALLOWER AND  
FASTER AND THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER AND SLOWER, SIMILAR TO  
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE UPSHOT WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST  
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT EITHER MONDAY IF THE FASTER SOLUTION  
PANS OUT OR MONDAY NIGHT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION DOES, FOLLOWED BY  
A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND  
TEMPERATURES FALLING DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER  
NORMALS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES  
RISING AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT PERHAPS NOT SO MUCH IN THE  
VALLEYS. FOR THURSDAY, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC, BUT LITTLE OR NO AGREEMENT ON ANY  
DETAILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANYTHING FOR NOW AND SEE IF  
FUTURE RUNS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS THREATENING RECORDS THAT HAVE STOOD STRONG FOR DECADES  
IN MANY INSTANCES. BELOW IS A TABLE FEATURING A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND  
THE REGION AND THEIR CURRENT RECORDS AND YEAR SET.  
 
THU 11/23 FRI 11/24 SAT 11/25 SUN 11/26  
LAS VEGAS, NV 76 (1995) 81 (1949) 76 (1970) 75 (1997)  
BISHOP, CA 78 (1959) 80 (1949) 78 (1954) 76 (1954)  
BARSTOW, CA 82 (1949) 85 (1949) 81 (1959) 81 (1977)  
NEEDLES, CA 82 (1995) 84 (1949) 83 (1949) 85 (1913)  
KINGMAN, AZ 82 (1915) 84 (1921) 83 (1921) 84 (1924)  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL  
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 20  
KFT.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCT-BKN  
CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GUILLET  
LONG TERM....MORGAN  
AVIATION...HARRISON  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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