255  
FXUS65 KVEF 211533  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
830 AM PDT THU SEP 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEVADA THIS  
AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  
NEVADA. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN  
SIERRA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL. DRY BUT COOL  
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

 
   
UPDATE
 
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. I MADE A FEW MORNING  
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR GENERAL TRENDS AND FINE TUNING OF AFTERNOON  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ALREADY ACROSS THE  
REGION BUT FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO I  
WILL RETAIN THE START TIME OF 11AM FOR THE WIND ADVISORY. I ALSO  
ADDED SOME MENTION OF BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN  
MOJAVE DESERT GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND GUSTS AND DRY SOILS.  
 
-OUTLER-  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS NEVADA USHERING IN  
SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. FIRST, GUSTY WINDS  
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING  
WINDS OVER 30 MPH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS WILL  
OCCUR ACROSS LINCOLN, CLARK, SOUTHERN NYE, MOHAVE, AND PORTIONS OF  
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 45 MPH ARE  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES FOR THOSE  
LOCATIONS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES NECESSARY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO  
OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA  
WHERE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER  
SLOPES. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING PRECIPITATION FALLING JUST  
WEST OF MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE SIERRA OF  
INYO COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY AFFECTING MAINLY  
ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY  
FALL IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. DUE TO  
STRONG FORCING WITH THE FRONT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER  
CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED THOSE  
TO THE FORECAST. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
ESMERALDA COUNTY, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE EAST.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT WAS  
SEEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING OF 5 DEGREES ON FRIDAY  
LEAVING MOST AREAS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST  
SINCE MID MAY. SOME AREAS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY INCLUDING DYER WILL  
LIKELY SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND  
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES FOR  
FRIDAY MORNING TO COVER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THESE FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT  
ARRIVING JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL. THE MAIN  
IMPACTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED FREEZES THIS WEEKEND  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. AREAS OF CONCERN INCLUDE HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INYO COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING. PROPER PRECAUTIONS REGARDING PETS  
AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED THIS WEEKEND IN THESE  
AREAS. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND  
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES  
WILL INCREASE 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY UNDER CONTINUED BOARD TROUGHING  
BEFORE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL  
BY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS (ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY) CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH GUSTS  
EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES ALONG A BELT FROM THE WESTERN MOJAVE  
DESERT INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH, AND ALSO ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. MUCH  
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY  
HIGH FUEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITIES.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS  
MORNING WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LENTICULAR CLOUDS, BUT NO  
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS  
WILL BE STRONG SURFACE WINDS, TURBULENCE, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER  
30 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG  
WINDS OVER 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LINCOLN, MOHAVE, CLARK AND  
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,  
HOWEVER, EXPECT ENHANCED WINDS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE AND  
ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE NEAR MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON  
ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
A MORE FALL-LIKE PATTERN WILL BRING  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, REPORTS OF WIND  
IMPACTS SUCH AS BLOWING DUST OR DAMAGE ARE APPRECIATED.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...GORELOW  
LONG TERM...KRYSTON  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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