085  
FXUS65 KVEF 220316  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
715 PM PST WED FEB 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF  
WIND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DESERTS ON THURSDAY AND A BAND OF RAIN  
AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL  
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

 
   
UPDATE
 
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING AS SOME  
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF IN THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE  
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING  
SKIES WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, PERHAPS A  
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE MORE IDEAL SKY  
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE  
PLANNED THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
A WEAK, DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS  
THE AREA TODAY AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT, STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM  
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE A  
ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SAN  
BERNARDINO, CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AND INTO  
THURSDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WEST  
WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS  
OF 50 TO 65 MPH IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH DOWN INTO  
THE OWENS VALLEY.  
 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE, LINCOLN AND  
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING LINCOLN  
COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR A  
MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE  
COMMON AT LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 93 AND ALONG I-40 EAST OF KINGMAN.  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW TOTALS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE. SNOW  
LEVELS WILL BE QUITE LOW, FALLING BELOW 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE A  
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP  
RANGE AND IN ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE  
LIMITED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY  
MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH THAT ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY  
TO BE SNOW. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.  
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT  
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.  
 
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE PUSH SOUTH AND INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY  
EVENING WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.  
ELSEWHERE, THE SYSTEM WILL JUST PROVIDE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF  
COLD AIR, HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THEIR SEASONAL  
NORMALS.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH TEMPERATURES  
REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MODELS ARE LESS  
CONSISTENT BEYOND MONDAY BUT GENERALLY HAVE A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TAP OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION  
EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
THINNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, A  
BRIEF PUSH OF SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE VALLEY, WITH  
THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.  
ABUNDANT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY MOISTURE FROM  
REACHING THE GROUND, BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED GUSTS AND  
TURBULENCE. GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND MOISTURE  
INCREASES. HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR ALONG THE MORMON  
MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND  
LIMITED MOISTURE, ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY  
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BRIEF AND HAVE SOME SNOW POTENTIAL, THOUGH NO  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION  
FOR THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 45 KTS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS  
FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.  
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT AT TAF SITES, WITH LOWER  
CIGS POSSIBLE FOR BIH AND AREAS WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION.......CZYZYK  
AVIATION.........STEELE  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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