173  
FXUS65 KVEF 260353 AAA  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
853 PM PDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS  
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS  
TO HEAD EAST OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY  
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH  
EARLY TUESDAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS AND A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  

 
   
UPDATE
 
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT  
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR DATA AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.  
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MAY  
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE TO A TYPICAL  
DIURNAL SW DIRECTION. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS  
EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS  
FAVORING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY  
SUNDAY.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS  
THROUGH SUNDAY. DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS  
IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO  
COUNTY WHERE WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS ARE  
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.  

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...224 PM PDT
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS  
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY OVER  
LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN  
THOSE AREAS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS CAN  
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN  
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA  
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT  
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER ESMERALDA AND  
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP  
SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT.  
SHOWER CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST  
AREA BUT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. LINCOLN COUNTY WILL  
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
COUNTY COULD SEE OVER A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION.  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH  
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH START TO DROP DOWN  
ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN  
CLARK COUNTY. MEANWHILE, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND  
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. IT LOOKS  
LIKE THOSE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO INYO COUNTY  
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH WINDS  
ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, WE WILL LIKELY  
NEED TO BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL ZONES FOR MONDAY AND  
MONDAY EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FOR NOW TO SEE HOW LATER  
MODEL RUNS TREND WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
TUESDAY WILL SEE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING  
CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT PERSISTENT  
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. AREAS NEAR LAUGHLIN CAN  
EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THIS TIME AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE  
A GOOD BET AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON  
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THE THURSDAY-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD AS  
YET ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS  
MORNINGS 12Z ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE COLD AND BULLISH DEVELOPING A VERY  
STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE  
GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS  
HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS  
SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR AT BEST, BUT THERE WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE  
WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY. FOR  
NOW, ADVERTISED ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING AND VERY MODEST INCREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION, BUT ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN  
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SALMEN  
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON  
LONG TERM...OUTLER  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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