447  
FNUS76 KMFR 200223  
FWSMFR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR COVE...USFS, MODOC NF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
723 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 PDT ON AUGUST 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH OVER  
CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE EAST WINDS IN THE MORNING, THEN NORTHWEST  
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OWING TO FULLY SHELTERED  
FUELS AT EYE LEVEL, BUT 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE MORE GUSTY. THE FLOW  
ALOFT SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE.  
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
NEARBY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF  
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING. MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY,  
BUT THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH. EVEN  
SO, HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR  
MASS BEGINS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A SHOWER  
OR THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE.  
 
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. PATCHY SMOKE.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST 0-2 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING  
NORTHWEST 1-2 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING  
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 7-12 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY SMOKE.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 35-45 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH 1-2 MPH BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 0-1 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH IN  
THE EVENING BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
CLOUDY. PATCHY SMOKE.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0-2 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING  
SOUTHWEST 1-2 MPH BY 1300, THEN WEST 1-4 MPH  
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING  
SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH BY 1300, THEN BECOMING WEST  
AND INCREASING TO 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 21  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST BECOMING WEST 10 MPH.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
TUESDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
PATCHY SMOKE. LOW NEAR 60. HIGH 88. SOUTH BECOMING WEST AROUND 5  
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY SMOKE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH 86.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  
LOW NEAR 60. HIGH 84. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...SPILDE  
REQUESTED BY...AMANDA SHOAF  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1714409.5/MFR  
 
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