253
FXUS65 KPSR 250008
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
508 PM MST WED APR 24 2024
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DESERT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SIGNIFICANT UPTREND IN WINDINESS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO LA PAZ
COUNTY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY
WITH DESERT HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S BY MONDAY AND
FLIRTING WITH 100 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A PATTERN CHANGE HAS BEGUN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW (CENTERED OFF THE SOCAL COAST) ADVANCES
EASTWARD. THAT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE MODEST.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A COOL FRONT ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
FORCING TO TRY TO OVERCOME THE LIMITATIONS. TO VARYING DEGREES,
DETERMINISTIC CAMS ARE SHOWING A BATCH OF SHOWERS STARTING UP OVER
LA PAZ COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD BRUSHING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL. SOME SUBTLE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NBM POPS TO INCREASE THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES JUST NORTH OVER THE
FGZ FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
MORE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION (ANTICIPATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX THERE AS WELL).
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY ISN'T IDEAL FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TRENDS UP A LITTLE BIT. PLUS, THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECONDITIONING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM LEADING
TO MORE WIDESPREAD POPS OVER AZ. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS WILL STILL BE
MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN AZ BUT MORE OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
(INCLUDING PORTIONS OF GREATER PHOENIX) WILL NOW HAVE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION - MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A SIGNIFICANT UPTREND IN
BREEZINESS/WINDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST CA. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE TONIGHT WITH A NEW ADVISORY THERE
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NEW ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR THE SAME TIME
FRAME. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY CONTINUES TO HAVE
A LONGER LIVED ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THOUGH THERE ARE ANY ADVISORIES FOR THURSDAY, IT WILL STILL BE AT
LEAST BREEZY; LIKEWISE WITH SATURDAY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND
BEGINS SUNDAY WITH DESERT HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S BY
MONDAY AND FLIRTING WITH 100 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0008Z.
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. SURFACE DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO AN E TO SE COMPONENT, HOWEVER IT MAY BE BRIEF AND WINDS MAY
VEER BACK S-SW WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (5-10%) FOR SOME SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO PHOENIX THURSDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 12-17Z. MOST ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH,
WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXITING WITH CLEAR SKIES RETURNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THEN FEW, TO BRIEFLY SCT, CLOUDS AS LOW AS 5-6K FT MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN RISE TO 10-12K FT DURING THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS
EVENING, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS PEAKING UP TO 35-40 KTS AT KIPL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS PEAKING UP TO 25-30 KTS AT KBLH. SOME REPRIEVE
FROM THE GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KICKING UP DUST, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION
AT KIPL IS NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY (MVFR OR
LOWER). THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR A HIGH-BASED SHOWER TO
DEVELOP NEAR KBLH BETWEEN 7-10Z BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND CLEAR
BY THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
AZZ557-558.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
CAZ560-563-565>567.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ560-563-565>567.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
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