042
FXUS65 KREV 231935
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1235 PM PDT TUE APR 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. ANTICIPATE TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM RISKS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SMALL HAIL. BE AWARE OF RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS IF RECREATING OUTDOORS.
DISCUSSION
AN TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD INTO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES TODAY, WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND
RANGE.
PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS, STORMS IN NE CA
WILL CONTINUE TREKKING TOWARD THE NNE, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. THIS WILL BRING
STORM CHANCES TO WESTERN NEVADA STARTING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM FOR
AREAS NEAR A LINE EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OREGON BORDER. THIS INCLUDES
RENO/SPARKS, CARSON/MINDEN, YERINGTON, FERNLEY, PYRAMID LAKE,
GERLACH. STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH A 40% CHANCE
FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO BE HIT
DIRECTLY. ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
AND RAIN/PELLET SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, A 20-40% CHANCE THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND NEAR SOCAL,
WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY-50. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A 50-70% CHANCE FOR STORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF MONO,
MINERAL, SOUTHERN LYON, AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY MID-AFTERNOON,
EXTENDING NORTH AND EASTWARD NEAR THE HWY-95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR STORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AS TODAY, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD (40% IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION) OF WETTING RAINS (0.10"+) THROUGHOUT THE AREAS
MENTIONED. WE'LL ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. ABOVE
8500 FT IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" ARE
POSSIBLE. ALONG THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FT, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8" ARE POSSIBLE.
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING ENHANCED WINDS ON
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO REACH 50 MPH ALONG THE
EASTERN SIERRA FRONT, EXPANDING INTO WESTERN NEVADA, WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTING A "MORE LIKELY" 35-40 MPH WSW GUSTS.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL, OR ~20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT WE STARTED THE WEEK WITH. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE CHILL FACTOR.
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY PM
THROUGH FRIDAY PM, ALONG WITH A 15-25% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND/OR PELLET SHOWERS. THE COLDER WEATHER EVEN BRING THE RETURN OF
THE S-WORD, AKA SNOW, TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ROAD
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO RECENT WARMTH AND
THE SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE'S ONLY A 25% CHANCE TO
REACH 4" OF SNOW IN THE HIGH SIERRA, SO WE'RE NOT TALKING MAJOR
STORM BY ANY STRETCH. JUST BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
CONDITIONS THAN WE SAW LAST WEEKEND.
WHILE A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY, GENERALLY
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL. -DAWN
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING REDUCED
CIGS/VIS, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DUE TO THE HIGHER
BASES ON STORMS. THAT BEING SAID, MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BECOME OBSCURED
WITHIN THE CLOUDS. HIGHEST STORM CHANCES (40% AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION)
WILL BE NE CA AND THEN WESTERN NEVADA FROM KMEV-KRTS NORTHWARD,
WHICH INCLUDE KRNO AND KCXP, WORKING EAST TOWARD A KHTH-KNFL-KLOL
LINE INTO THE EVENING. TYPICAL IMPACTS INCLUDE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, A 25% CHANCE ACROSS W NV,
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY-50 STARTING MID-
AFTERNOON, EXTENDING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY-95 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. -DAWN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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