405  
FXUS65 KREV 171031  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
331 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN  
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MONO  
AND MINERAL COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD  
ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND  
AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST; HIGH  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.  
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING AROUND NOON TODAY AS  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM 16-19C. THESE TEMPERATURES CORRELATE TO  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 100-106 RANGE WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE  
HOTTEST DAY. THE DURATION OF THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH  
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS 65-75 ARE THE DRIVING FACTORS FOR THE  
ADVISORIES. SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AND THOSE WORKING OR RECREATING  
OUTDOORS SHOULD CONSUME EXTRA WATER AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT  
RELATED ILLNESS.  
 
OTHERWISE, AREAS OF SMOKE FROM THE FERGUSON FIRE AND  
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUTLINE THE REMAINING WEATHER  
CONCERNS. AIR QUALITY MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO  
THE SOURCE; SMOKE TRANSPORT MODELS FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONO COUNTY AS THE AREA WHERE SMOKE WILL BE  
THICKEST AND AIR QUALITY POOREST. SOME HIGHER TRAILS NORTHWARD TO  
AROUND LAKE TAHOE MAY ALSO HAVE AIR QUALITY IMPACTS. ELSEWHERE, IT  
WILL BE MAINLY HAZY WITH SOME DEGRADATION TO AIR QUALITY WHICH  
SHOULD IMPROVE WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES IN MONO/MINERAL  
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 80  
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SUPPRESS  
CONVECTION AROUND RENO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS DO PROJECT  
SOME HEIGHT FALLS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF LATE  
AFTERNOON STORMS GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES  
AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING  
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW DUE TO VERY HIGH  
DENSITY PERTURBATIONS FEEDING INTO LARGE MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN  
VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BOYD  
   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND
 
 
THERE WERE NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
MONSOON MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BRINGS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS NEAR BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN AND  
URBAN AREAS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD ENHANCE  
CONVECTION, EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND  
STRENGTH AS PWATS APPROACH 1". BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE A POSSIBLE WAVE FRIDAY WHICH COULD FAVOR THAT DAY FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80  
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE TOWARD THE OREGON BORDER.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND  
CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY. THERE  
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF  
THE U.S. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT AND LIMIT IT MAINLY TO  
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. HOHMANN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HAZE  
AND SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE FERGUSON FIRE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. LATE  
AFTERNOON-EVENING WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE  
US-395 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. A DRIER WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MONO-MINERAL  
COUNTIES TODAY THEN EDGING NORTHWARD TO NEAR US-50 BY WEDNESDAY. FOR  
THE MAIN TERMINALS, ONLY KMMH IS AT RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY  
THUNDER--LESS THAN 10% PROBABILITY TODAY, INCREASING TO NEAR 20%  
WEDNESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD LATER  
THIS WEEK. MJD/HOHMANN  
 

 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ003-004.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ005.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ001.  
 
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070.  
 

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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