485  
FXUS65 KREV 242156  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
256 PM PDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A  
COUPLE OF SPRINGTIME STORMS BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.  
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BREEZY WINDS MAY PRODUCE CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS  
AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TURBULENT AIR TRAVEL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WAS PUSHING  
ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND RENO-SPARKS VICINITY EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON, PRODUCING A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW AROUND THE  
LAKE AND STEADY RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN, SHIFTING  
THE BEST SNOW CHANCES SOUTHWARD TO ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES.  
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY  
AREA AROUND TAHOE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF US-50  
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. FARTHER NORTH, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE  
LESS, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MORE CONFINED TO  
AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND FAR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.  
THEREFORE WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 71.  
FOR WESTERN NV, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO AREAS  
EAST OF US-95 THIS EVENING WHERE UP TO 0.25 INCH IS POSSIBLE,  
WHILE ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.  
 
FOR SATURDAY, A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF  
SHOWERS GOING MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS  
GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FEET, BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO  
BE LESS ORGANIZED, WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION TYPE RAIN  
AND SNOW DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT--ALTHOUGH  
CURRENT QPF PROJECTIONS ONLY SUPPORT A FEW INCHES FROM NORTHEAST  
CA INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 4-8 INCHES  
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. EVEN THESE LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS COULD  
PRODUCE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE NEAR  
THE SIERRA. FOR WESTERN NV, LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE  
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS. THEN DURING THE  
DAY MONDAY, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR PELLET SHOWERS GOING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOWER  
50S IN WESTERN NV AND LOWER 40S NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD  
   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
 
 
A QUIETER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD AS RIDGING TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF  
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE  
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA YIELDING A  
TREND TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS BEGINNING MID-WEEK. THERE IS SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR A BRUSH-BY SYSTEM THURSDAY BUT THIS HAS BEEN  
TRENDING TOWARDS STAYING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BEST  
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF I-80. CONFIDENCE  
IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS RELATIVELY LOW, SO WILL  
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN A WEEK OUT OF  
ESTABLISHING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC  
BASIN. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WHICH  
WOULD DIMINISH OUR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL HEADING INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND. DID WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH THIS SOLUTION IN  
MIND. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 50S  
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KTRK, KTVL, KRNO, AND KCXP  
WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POST-  
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z FOR TAHOE AND WESTERN  
NEVADA TERMINALS (05-06Z FOR KMMH).  
 
MOST SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 03-04Z BUT A SECOND WAVE  
OF WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AFTER 12Z  
SATURDAY MORNING BUT AT MOST BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN  
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS  
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NEAR RIDGE LEVEL WEAKEN WITH TROUGH PUSHING  
EASTWARD.  
 
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK EARLY SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS SIMILAR  
TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, EXCEPT MOST OF THE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO OCCUR  
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FUENTES  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT SATURDAY NVZ002.  
 
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT SATURDAY CAZ072.  
 

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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