760  
FXUS66 KEKA 271129  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
429 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK. COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE  
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO WILL  
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR 130W BUILDS  
CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS  
INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO  
INDICATE WEAK CAPE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE HORN OF TRINITY AND  
YOLLA BOLLYS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBLITY OF ISOLATED  
SHOWERS. THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TOO MUCH MID LAYER  
STABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS CONVECTION TODAY. NAM12 AND GFS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND DECREASING STABILITY ON  
THU AND FRI. BOTH MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS. ONCE AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO STABE FOR TSTMS. A  
FEW SHOWERS CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE. OVERALL DRY AND WARMER  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE  
AREA MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH SAT AS A BROAD FLAT RIDGE HOLDS OVER  
THE AREA. THE STRATUS FORECAST WILL BE BASED LARGELY ON  
PERSISTENCE. WARMING ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY SMASH THE  
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND ALLOW FASTER CLEARING TO THE COASTLINE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGLY ONSHORE AND  
ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF.  
 
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING AN UPPER  
TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST SUN INTO MON. BOTH MODELS GENERATE SOME  
PRECIP AS WELL. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP ACROSS THE  
BOARD. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE IF THE MODELS  
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A RAIN OUT ON SUN OR  
MON. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE TIMING AND  
COVERAGE ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MORNING PICS FROM SPACE SHOWING ANOTHER DEEP MARINE  
LAYER THUS NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CLEARING AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH  
CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO MARGINAL VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERIOR  
VALLEYS LOOKING BETTER IN TERMS OF A LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS AND  
ANY CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING  
LEAVING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONED JUST OFFSHORE. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED LAST NIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS  
MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL SHORT PERIOD WAVES. STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST  
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRESH WINDS. OTHERWISE A SOUTH, SOUTHWEST WAVE  
GROUP WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES  
CALIFORNIA AND A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470-475.  
 

 
 

 
 
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