387  
FXUS66 KEKA 100358  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
758 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WEEK...WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND BY FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE  
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT  
COASTS. RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY  
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DRIZZLE OR  
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN  
INCREASED IN THESE AREAS AND DRIZZLE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE  
FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS  
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 325 PM PST
 
 
DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ALONG  
THE WEST COAST AS A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE HOLDS STRONG.  
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS  
RECORD VALUES AS EXPECTED...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
COASTAL READINGS IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70...AND INTERIOR VALLEY  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. RELATIVELY DENSE HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO KEPT SKIES A BIT MORE OBSCURED THIS  
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THESE SHOULD CLEAR PRIOR TO  
SUNSET FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST.  
 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE WEST  
COAST RIDGE...SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS TOWARDS THE  
COAST AS IT DOES. THESE FRONTS ARE ALL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN  
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY BARREL INTO THE RIDGE...AND AS A  
RESULT...MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL  
FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. EVEN  
THEN...RAINFALL WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE  
COUNTIES...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ONE INCH  
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT ONLY VERY SLIM  
CHANCES OF SPRINKLES NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST FRONT  
DRAWS NEAR...AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
HILLS EARLY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
FRONT. A BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN IS ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO BRING  
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 
BEYOND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF  
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEANINGFUL  
RAIN. ON SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL CLIMB THE TOP OF  
THIS RIDGE AND IMPACT THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST...HOWEVER  
IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION WILL BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD  
OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK  
DOWN SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER  
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND REGARDING THE FINER DETAILS AT THIS EARLY  
JUNCTURE. /BRC  
 
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS RIDGING  
ALOFT SITS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE UNITED  
STATES...HOWEVER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN  
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO  
WHETHER OR NOT HAZE OR MIST WILL RETURN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COAST OR IF OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS  
WILL PREVENT THEM FROM DEVELOPING. INTERIOR TERMINALS WILL HAVE A  
CHANCE AT SEEING PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KUKI  
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS... IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY  
FOG TO CREEP INTO KUKI WHICH WOULD REDUCE VISBY AND CIGS...BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN THAT HAPPENING. /KAR  
 
MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AS  
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WEST COAST. A WESTERLY SWELL WILL  
BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS  
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE  
ISSUED WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 10 FT BY THU AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THIS SWELL WILL ALSO BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SNEAKER  
WAVES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FORERUNNERS ARRIVE. THE  
SWELL WILL BUILD IN MAGNITUDE ON THU AND THEN PEAK BY EARLY  
FRIDAY. ANYONE PLANNING TO GO TO THE BEACH NEEDS TO REMAIN ALERT  
AND KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE SURF WHICH MAY APPEAR TO BE  
TRANQUIL AND SAFE AT TIMES. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE  
WEEKEND...HOWEVER INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A  
SLIGHT RAMP UP IN SHORT PERIOD SEAS BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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