637  
FXUS66 KEKA 211256  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
556 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL  
CONTINUE TO SEE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN  
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NW CAL THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG WILL REGENERATE EACH NIGHT AND FOR THE  
MOST PART MIX OUT EACH AFTERNOON. LESS WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING  
HAS RESULTED IN LESS DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.  
PESKY LITTLE VORTICES TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE  
COASTLINE MAY MAKE COMPLETE CLEARING DIFFICULT...WITH CLEARING LESS  
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW ON THU AND THEN DIG  
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHT  
COOLING TO THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS  
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRI. THE COOLING AND INCREASE IN WINDS  
SHOULD LIFT UP THE MARINE LAYER AND PERHAPS WIPE OUT THE SMALL  
SCALE EDDIES TRAPPED NEAR THE COASTLINE.  
 
MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSING  
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC TO  
BUILD CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARMING ALOFT  
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW NEAR MEAN SEA  
LEVEL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO  
BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE WARMING  
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY EXTREME OR OUT OF THE ORDINARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS  
HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS THIS MORNING. EXPECT ANY CLOUDS  
THAT MAKE IT INTO ACV AND CEC WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS  
MORNING. THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS IN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND ALONG THE  
COAST SO THESE WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE  
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT NEAR TO UKIAH THIS MORNING.  
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IT WILL BE LATE  
AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. MKK  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS  
AND SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL  
DIMINISH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
DISRUPTS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS  
INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH  
MONDAY. TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS  
WILL WEAKEN THE FLOW AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN. MAINLY  
WENT WITH THE NAM AND DGEX WHICH WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF  
WINDS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. CUT THE WAVES  
FROM SWAN DOWN A BIT AS IT SEEMED TO BE OVERDOING THE WIND WAVES IN  
A FEW PERIODS.  
 
CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE BUOYS IS A LONG PERIOD WAVE AROUND 1 FOOT AT  
14 SECONDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS PEAKING AROUND 4 FT AT 12 SECONDS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS  
SHOW THIS WAVE PERSISTING INTO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW TO MODERATE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS FAIRLY UNUSUAL TO GET A  
SOUTHERLY WAVE THIS LARGE. MKK  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING PZZ450.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.  
 

 
 

 
 
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