177  
FXUS66 KEKA 022044  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
144 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END  
OF THE WEEK, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL  
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD  
NORTH AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL  
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE FROM THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX TOWARDS THE  
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS  
WEEK. -PETRUCELLI  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS STARTING  
TO CREEP BACK TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY. OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW  
HOURS HAS BEEN SHOWING THE STRATUS GOING THERE, THEN RETREATING.  
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN  
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE MARINE  
STRATUS JUST SOUTH OF CRESCENT CITY TOWARDS CAPETOWN IS SHOWING  
SIGNS OF ERODING AND IT'S POSSIBLE IT COULD CLEAR OUT TOWARDS  
EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL  
PICTURE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.  
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY  
BREEZES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN DEL NORTE HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY  
COUNTIES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. THE  
THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY  
THURSDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WE'LL SEE THE  
MARINE STRATUS START TO SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARDS POINT ARENA AND  
FORT BRAGG LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS  
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH CAPETOWN THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND WILL GET CLOSE TO EUREKA. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL  
REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  
 
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH UP THROUGH THE PAC  
NW FRIDAY UNTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE'LL REMAIN DRY OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA WITH MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT RIVER VALLEY  
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. INLAND  
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -PETRUCELLI  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF  
CRESCENT CITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KACV SHOULD SEE CIGS BURN OFF  
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...YET LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE  
COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE KCEC  
TERMINAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY  
RETURN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERSIST  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT  
KUKI THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE PAC NW  
COAST AND A THERMAL TROF OVER THE CA MAINLAND WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS INCREASING N WINDS TO SOLID GALE FORCE OVER  
THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM. THE GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL BRING  
STEEP SEAS TO THE WATERS NEARER TO SHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.  
THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THOSE  
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FAIRLY RAPIDLY WED NIGHT AS  
THE THERMAL TROF SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. JBL  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
THE SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE PACNW THROUGH  
TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE DRIER AIR AND AN INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVER THE DISTRICT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL  
BE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND CONTINUED VERY DRY AFTERNOON  
MINIMUM HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR  
THIS OCCURRENCE WHICH WILL MATCH UP WELL WITH THE HEADLINE FROM THE  
MEDFORD WFO. COORDINATION WITH AREA IMETS RESULTED IN NOT ISSUING A  
WATCH FOR THE CONTINUED CONDITION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
BUT WE DO EXPECT THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITION TO LIKELY CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE RIDGES IN AT LEAST ZONES 203 AND 204. SO STAY TUNED.  
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS  
FRIDAY SO THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN. LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OFF  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA OVER  
THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT'LL LEAVE THE AREA FREE FROM  
LIGHTNING...WHICH WAS A CONCERN AT ONE POINT FOR SOME. LOOKS  
FAIRLY DRY AND NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY PRECIP SO  
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD. STAVISH  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY  
CAZ004.  
 
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ450.  
 
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY  
PZZ450.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT  
THURSDAY PZZ455.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT THURSDAY  
PZZ475.  
 

 
 

 
 
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:  
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page