385  
FXUS66 KEKA 271535  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
835 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
WARM INTO THE 90S TO OVER 100 DEGREES FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE  
MID 60S CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MATCH THE CURRENT  
CLOUD COVERAGE. THE MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF MEDFORD CONFIRMS THE  
EXISTENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION, WHICH SHOULD RESTRICT  
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IF CUMULUS DEVELOPS WITHIN THE  
RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT  
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
DISCUSSION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE  
NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR ALONG  
THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON BUT A FEW DAYS OF  
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST IS LIKELY...DUE TO THE  
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH BETTER MIXING INTO TUESDAY  
SO AGAIN PERHAPS SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY  
TUESDAY. SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN SOME  
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUSLY  
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A  
BAGGY TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST  
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME COOLING  
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /RPA/JT  
 
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MARINE STRATUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NIGHTTIME  
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST IS  
ENGULFED BY THE MARINE STRATUS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MARINE STRATUS  
IS ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE COAST. DO EXPECT LOW CLOUD CEILING, WITH  
LIFR CATEGORY, WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREA THROUGH THE  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PROFILER SHOWS THAT THE THICKNESS OF  
THE MARINE STRATUS LAYER IS AT LEAST 2000 FEET THICK. WITH A STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MIXING TO DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PROBABLY BE STUCK IN IFR.  
MARINE STRATUS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT, BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS BACK  
TO THE COASTAL AREA. /RCL  
 
MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT  
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL DEVELOP INTO GALE FORCE  
WINDS AND SEAS BY TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
THE START OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN, AND THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR  
CALIFORNIA. THESE WEATHER FEATURES COMBINED WILL CREATE A NORTHERLY  
PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. DO EXPECT  
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET MONDAY. THE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY MONDAY EVENING, AND THAT WILL LEAD TO A  
STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE. DO EXPECT GALE  
FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS TO DEVELOP BY  
LATE TONIGHT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND.  
 
WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS, NORTHERLY SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL  
INCREASE AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SEAS TO  
BUILD TO 13 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TO 16 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
THE ELEVATED SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK  
WEEK. /RCL  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT  
TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR  
PZZ475.  
 

 
 

 
 
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