673  
FXUS66 KEKA 162331 CCA  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
430 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS  
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY. THEN...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM  
IMPACTS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF BRINGING  
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED  
STATES HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUD COVER ALOFT  
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.  
MOST RAIN WILL BE RESTRICTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH AMOUNTS  
AROUND 0.10" OR LESS AND PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL  
NORTE COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER  
SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE  
MENDOCINO WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT.  
 
A MORE PROMINENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS  
SOUTHWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING  
SHORTWAVES IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE SIGNALED A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPENING  
LOW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL  
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM BUT PAST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ECMWF HAS BEEN  
TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. AS A RESULT, STARTING ON  
MONDAY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM AN ALL MODEL BLEND WITH THE CAP  
UP IN 50 THE PERCENT RANGE AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF  
THE FORECAST.\KML  
 

 
   
AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER  
0900Z DUE TO CEILINGS. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL  
WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KENNEDY  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO  
THE WEST. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF  
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SO KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING. THESE  
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9:00 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE  
NEEDED FOR THESE WATERS ONCE THE GALE IS CANCELLED. THE SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS CONTINUES UNTIL 9:00 PM THIS  
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS  
CANCELLED AS THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL  
GENERATE ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS. KENNEDY  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ455.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.  
 

 
 

 
 
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