129  
FXUS66 KEKA 291050  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
350 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST
 
MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES  
WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER  
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS WILL RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE WEST COAST  
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER  
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN SOME UPSLOPE FLOW  
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN  
SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. THE DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH IN  
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS  
SHORTWAVE HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE  
AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER DEVELOP OVER  
THE DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR SOME DRIZZLE TO  
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.  
 
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.  
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AFTER  
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN  
ISSUED AT THIS TIME DESPITE LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID  
30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO  
COUNTIES.  
 
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN  
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST  
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST  
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS  
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY  
WARM TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND  
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER  
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER  
TROUGH/LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF  
INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION  
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR MOISTURE TO  
SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY  
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOWER  
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DUE TO  
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF AN  
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL  
IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH TONIGHT.  
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THIS MORNING  
WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING  
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KUKI.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING  
THE WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY  
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED  
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH  
THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN OUTER WATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING  
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING  
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR  
PZZ470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR  
PZZ475.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.  
 

 
 

 
 
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