464  
FXUS66 KHNX 281100  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA  
400 AM PDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND TO THE  
AREA BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING AND POTENTIALLY WINDY STORM  
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AND AND THURSDAY  
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MORE SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS  
FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPPED SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF OUR  
AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AZ AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE  
FOUR CORNERS REGIONS TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS  
AMPLIFYING OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 130W AND THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED  
TO BUILD INLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS  
AND A WARMING TREND TO OUR AREA.  
 
AT THIS TIME, SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME  
RESIDUAL LOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE  
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS  
MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE WINDS  
HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON A FEW  
INDICATOR SITES IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE STILL  
REPORTING GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.  
 
GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND  
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE  
AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE PAC  
NW. LIME THE MONDAY STORM, THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,  
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES, A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS AND  
CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN  
SIERRA NEVADA.  
 
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS  
SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER RIDGE  
BUILDING INTO CA FOR NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES. THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THEN  
AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA ON  
MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF  
OUR AREA. THE GEM IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO IDEAS  
INDICATING A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE  
GFS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED WITH THE DRIER ECWMF AS IT HAS SHOWN  
THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE RMOP IS INDICATING VERY LOW  
PREDICTABILTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING THAT CONFIDENCE  
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS IN TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES, CREATING AREAS OF MVFR  
CEILINGS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR IN LOW CLOUDS THRU 18Z  
TUE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
NONE.  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...DS  
AVN/FW...JEB  
SYNOPSIS...DS  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page