880  
FXUS66 KHNX 170931  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA  
231 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING HOT WEATHER IN PLACE. EASTERLY  
FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO  
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A NOTED CLOCKWISE  
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE STATE. OVER  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AN EASTERLY RESULTING FLOW IS BRINGING ANOTHER  
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AND SONORA ACROSS THE COLORADO  
RIVER. OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AN EASTERLY WAVE IS  
PUSHING TO THE WEST AND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE  
ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE WILL BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT OF  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
LATEST GFS MODEL KEEPS THE WESTERLY PUSH OF MOISTURE FOR TODAY  
HOWEVER IT LIMITS THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10  
AND HAS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA. ON WEDNESDAY  
AS THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES OFF THE SO CAL COAST THE FLOW TURNS TO  
THE SOUTHEAST THUS ALLOWING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO  
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A MORE GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP AND  
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF  
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN REMAINS  
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING  
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK FLOW, ALTHOUGH FROM AN  
NORMAL DRYING DIRECTION IS WEAK AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN  
IN PLACE FOR AN CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA.  
 
CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES IN THIS MID TO LATE JULY PATTERN. THE  
ONLY POTENTIAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM  
COMPLEXES FORM AND LEAVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF  
THIS OCCURS HOWEVER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE FERGUSON FIRE IN MARIPOSA COUNTY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN  
20Z TODAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
 
ON TUESDAY JULY 17 2018... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN  
COUNTY AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.  
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...DUDLEY  
AVN/FW...DURFEE  
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
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