510  
FXUS66 KLOX 141632  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
932 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
14/756 AM.  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMING IS  
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MINOR CHANGES GOING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO THE  
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT DECREASING BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
 
14/929 AM.  
 
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THRU THU. A VERY WEAK UPPER  
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT EASTWARD  
TONIGHT/WED, THEN IT WILL DISSIPATE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE REGION WED AND THU, CAUSING  
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TO RISE A BIT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BECOME  
MORE SHALLOW, AND NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE  
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EDGE UPWARD  
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
VALLEYS AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE LESSENS. BY THU MAX TEMPS WILL  
GET CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IN THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS.  
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO EASTERN  
SECTIONS OF THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THU ACROSS THE MTNS OF L.A.  
COUNTY, BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.  
   
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
 
14/415 AM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION FRI AND SAT.  
NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL IN COVERAGE AND  
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT MORE FRI,  
LIKELY REACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST  
LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.  
LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS EXPECTED SAT. THERE WILL STILL BE A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER THE  
EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS FRI, THEN IT LOOKS DRIER SAT.  
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING SOME COOLING SUN/MON. HOWEVER,  
LATEST RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND ONSHORE  
GRADIENTS, SO EXPECT ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN TEMPS AND NIGHT THRU  
MORNING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE SUN/MON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
14/1256Z.  
 
AT 1130Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1100 FEET. THE TOP  
OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT  
27 DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
OVERALL... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/KPRB TAFS AND  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INLAND TAFS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL WAFT  
IN AND OUT OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THEN WILL RETURN  
AFTER 03Z. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE AND  
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 
KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS  
WILL WAFT IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINAL AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN WILL  
RETURN AFTER 05Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL  
NOT BE EAST WINDS GREATER THAN EIGHT KNOTS DURING THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 
KBUR... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF. THERE IS A LESS THAN  
TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
14/929 AM.  
 
FOR THE OUTER WATERS... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY,  
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF  
WINDS REACHING SCA LEVEL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A FORTY PERCENT  
CHANCE DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  
 
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL  
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY, AND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS A  
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS IN  
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 

 
 
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MW/DB  
AVIATION...KJ  
MARINE...SWEET  
SYNOPSIS...DELERME  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page