436  
FXUS66 KLOX 261205  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
505 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT TO MANY AREAS AWAY  
FROM THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND  
SHIFTS TO THE EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TDY-TUE)  
 
THE KDAG GRAD IS ONLY A MB AND IS TRENDING OFFSHORE THE KBFL GRAD  
IS A MB OFFSHORE. THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 1100 FEET DEEP. THERE  
ARE NO CLOUDS ACROSS THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BUT THE VTA AND SBA  
COASTS ARE SOCKED IN. THE BEST EXPLANATION FOR THIS IS THAT THE  
EDDY HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND PULLED THE CLOUDS AWAY  
FROM L.A. BY MID MORNING THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE THE PROBLEM OF  
THE DAY WILL BE THE TEMPS. SLOTOWN IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK.  
THEY HIT 98 THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS THEN DROPPED TO 79 ON  
FRIDAY AND SHOT BACK UP TO 96 DEGREES YESTERDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE  
THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE WINDS AGAIN TODAY IN THE MORNING SO THE  
CENTRAL COAST RESIDENTS AWAY FROM THE COAST CAN EXPECT A BURST OF  
SEARING HEAT MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN A COOLING TREND FROM  
NOON ONWARDS. ELSEWHERE 594 HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE  
TODAY A WARM ONE WITH VLY AND INLAND TEMPS ALL ABOUT 8 TO 12  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT LOOKS LIKE PASO ROBLES WILL BE THE  
WARMEST TODAY WITH A FCST HIGH OF 108 DEGREES.  
 
ANOTHER WEAK EDDY TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE L.A.  
AND VTA COASTS.  
 
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE  
MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE HUMID AT LOW LEVELS.  
DO HAVE TO WATCH THE LOW LEVEL RH THOUGH BECAUSE IF IT COMES IN  
JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST A FEW AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX  
VALUES SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR HEAT WARNINGS. STILL HOT EVERYWHERE  
EXCEPT THE BEACHES.  
 
LARGE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY.  
HGTS REMAIN NEAR 594 DM. THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE  
MUCH AN EDDY AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE L.A. COAST.  
THERE ARE SLIGHT ONSHORE TRENDS IN THE SFC GRADS BOTH TO THE NORTH  
AND EAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS  
THE COASTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE VLYS, THE INTERIOR WILL  
CONTINUE TO SIZZLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WED-SAT)  
 
ON WEDNESDAY THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A  
RIDGE AND SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL START TEMPS TO SLIDE  
DOWNWARD. THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY ONLY AFFECT THE LA  
COUNTY COAST.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EASTERLY  
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COASTS WILL  
COOL TO NORMAL VALUES. THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR WILL COOL AS WELL  
BUT SINCE THE HGTS REMAIN AT 591 DM MAX TEMPS THERE WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO SIGN OF MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING FAR  
ENOUGH WESTWARD TO AFFECT L.A. COUNTY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
26/12Z.  
 
AT 08Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 2950 FEET DEEP. THE TOP  
WAS NEAR 4150 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. THE REDUCED  
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING...  
LOCATION... AND INTENSITY OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR COASTAL AND  
ADJACENT VALLEY SITES. THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE THAT  
THE PROJECTED LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS IN THE TAF WILL NOT OCCUR...  
OR THAT LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT COASTAL SITES WITHOUT  
THEM IN THE TAF. THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CIGS  
AND/OR VSBYS OCCURING AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE AND  
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 
KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THE REDUCED  
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND  
INTENSITY OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT  
CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL NOT OCCUR. OTHERWISE VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IS  
PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING THE  
AIRPORT. THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS  
THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
MARINE...26/230 AM
 
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND  
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED. THE  
STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND LIKELY BEYOND FOR  
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS. FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER  
WATERS... THE WINDS WILL DIP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT  
TIMES BUT WILL BE NEAR CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING.  
 
FOR THE INNER WATERS... NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A THIRTY PERCENT  
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS NORTH OF POINT  
CONCEPTION. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS... WINDS WILL REMAIN  
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA  
BARBARA CHANNEL.  
 
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...  
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR  
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE  
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 

 

 
 
PUBLIC...RORKE  
AVIATION...KJ  
MARINE...KJ  
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
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