094  
FXUS66 KLOX 210625  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
1025 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND COOL WEATHER  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED  
TO BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(MON-THU)  
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST,  
NEAR 39N AND 130W THIS EVENING. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED  
SLIGHTLY OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE  
LATEST UPDATE. ANY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SOUTH OF  
POINT CONCEPTION WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT  
CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE, A COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***  
 
THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A  
DEEP LAYER OF NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND IT.  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT...AND STAY  
GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE THE I-5  
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY.  
THE NORTH FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH PERIODS OF  
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 60'S. ON THE BACKSIDE HOWEVER MOISTURE  
WILL PILE UP AND RESULT IN A NUMBER OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM  
THE TEJON PASS TO CUYAMA. THIS COULD BE A CONCERN CONSIDERING  
THAT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER BELOW 3,500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME INTERIOR ROADWAYS (INCLUDING  
THE TEJON PASS) COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRI-MON)  
 
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE WITH ZONAL (WEST-TO-EAST) FLOW ALOFT.  
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF STORM SYSTEM FOR  
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.  
THE FINER DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY  
PERTAINING TO WHICH 12 HOUR PERIODS WILL BE WET AND WHICH WILL BE  
DRY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL, BUT MORE-THAN-  
LIKELY MODERATE RAIN WILL BE REALIZED, BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE  
SAW LAST WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
21/0600  
 
AT 0538Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAFS CIGS AND VIS WILL CHANGE FREQUENTLY. LIFR  
TO VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL NON DESERT TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z.  
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SLO AND SBA COUNTIES FROM 06Z TO 09Z. THE  
RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER KSBA KOXR AND KCMA BEFORE 13Z. THERE IS A  
CHANCE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT TO LA COUNTY BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL  
BE AFTER 13Z.  
 
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS WILL LIKELY START TO JUMP  
FROM FLIGHT CAT TO FLIGHT CAT AFTER 08Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT EAST  
WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN UNDER 8 KT. SWITCH TO WEST WINDS COULD  
BE AS LATE AS 22Z.  
 
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS AND VIS WILL CHANGE FREQUENTLY  
AFTER 09Z. LIFR TO LOW VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
20/800 PM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ZONES 645, 670 AND  
673 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY MORNING  
BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL  
LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES  
34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES  
34-35-37-51-52. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR  
ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 

 
   
HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
(THU-MON)  
SNOW LEVELS BELOW 4,000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN  
LIGHT SNOW MOUNTAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEY ROADS INCLUDING THE TEJON  
PASS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH  
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE DOWNED TREES.  
MORE RAIN AND WIND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL  
AVIATION...ASR  
MARINE...SWEET/SIRARD  
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
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