628  
FXUS66 KMFR 242121  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
221 PM PDT TUE APR 24 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION  
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME RECORDS WILL PROBABLY FALL ON  
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. CHECK OUT THE WEATHER  
STORY ON WEATHER.GOV/MFR FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORDS AND THE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.  
 
AS FOR RIGHT NOW, WE'RE WATCHING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80'S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
IF ONE LOOKS AT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THEY CAN SEE SOME  
CLEARING BEHIND THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THINKING THIS  
CLEARING ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WHAT HELPS  
US PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80'S AND POSSIBLY 90 FOR MEDFORD TOMORROW.  
THE LATEST METMFR BULLETIN SHOWS 91 FOR A HIGH, BUT DIDN'T PUSH  
IT TO 91 BECAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING  
LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE LOW OUT TO THE WEST CONTINUES IT'S  
MARCH EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE CASCADES AS A RESULT OF THIS LOW  
MOVING FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD, BUT  
THERE IS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE CASCADES. SO  
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM  
WILL BE ON THURSDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS AN OCCLUDED  
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THERE  
IS SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.  
 
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON  
SATURDAY AND BEYOND.  
 
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERY WEATHER. THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OREGON ON SATURDAY AND  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. CAPE  
AND LIS ARE INDICATING THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
DURING THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY FOR THE CASCADES AND EAST. THE  
OVERALL SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW  
AMOUNTS, BUT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 FEET, BUT ACCUMULATING  
SNOW SHOULD ONLY POSE MINIMAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THINGS START TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP AGAIN BEGINNING MONDAY. A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY EXIST ON MONDAY BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA  
BY TUESDAY.  
 
-SCHAAF  
 

 
   
AVIATION...24/18Z TAF CYCLE
 
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE  
COAST...INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BUT MARINE STRATUS IS  
SURGING NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN  
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO KOTH AROUND  
03Z, THEN COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS  
NEAR THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL BE LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND  
FOG, BUT CIGS WILL RISE TO IFR BEHIND THE EDGE WITH IMPROVING  
VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE LOW CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT COASTAL  
COMMUNITIES, INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE LAND AREAS THAT  
ARE AFFECTED WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE  
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
-STOCKTON  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 APRIL 2018
 
CONDITIONS WILL  
BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL  
BUILDS.  
 
-STOCKTON  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
 
CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 
SMITH/STOCKTON/SHAAF  
 
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