160  
FXUS66 KMTR 181016  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA  
316 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE AIR KEEPING CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE  
COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA WHICH MAY BRING  
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OR AT LEAST SOME CLOUD  
BUILDUPS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:16 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
 
THE MARINE LAYER HAS  
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW AROUND 1000 FEET PER THE FORT ORD  
PROFILER. COASTAL STRATUS HAS PUSHED INLAND ONCE AGAIN FILLING THE  
VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED NEAR THE COAST. LOOK  
FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS  
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE VERY WARMEST  
AREAS. NEAR-COASTAL SITES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. TODAY  
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES  
BY THURSDAY.  
 
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, INCREASED  
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM  
POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW  
KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA SO POPS  
WERE LOWERED FOR THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE  
REMAINS LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS,  
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO AND EASTERN MONTEREY  
COUNTIES.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FARTHER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH  
A BAGGY TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL STRATUS/FOG.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY
 
THE MARINE LAYER HAS  
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE  
DISTRICT. CIGS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE MRY BAY AREA AND THROUGH THE  
GOLDEN GATE AND BASES ARE LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 500 FT. STILL  
EXPECT A GOOD INLAND PUSH INTO THE SOUTH BAY AND AROUND THE  
PENINSULA INTO SFO BY MORNING.  
 
VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR AFTER 12Z CLEARING AFTER 17Z.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING SNS AFTER 17Z AND MRY  
AFTER 18Z.  
 

 
   
MARINE...AS OF 8:36 PM PDT THURSDAY
 
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE  
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. A LONG-PERIOD  
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM  
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS  
AVIATION: W PI  
MARINE: W PI  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO  
 
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