591
FXUS66 KMTR 110000
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. COOLING HAS BEGUN AT THE COAST AND
SPREADS INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TO WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
A LARGER SCALE RIDGE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DIMINISHING THE OFFSHORE FLOW THAT CONTRIBUTED TO
THE WARM COASTAL TEMPERATURES THE LAST TWO DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS DECKS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST, FLOWING INTO
MONTEREY BAY AND THE COAST OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA. WHILE THIS
DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A SOUTHERLY SURGE, OBSERVED COASTAL WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY, HELPING TO COOL OFF THE COASTAL
REGIONS AS THE BREEZES DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO, WHICH HIT A HIGH OF 81 YESTERDAY, IS FORECAST TO TOP
OUT AT 76 TODAY. ELSEWHERE, THE PACIFIC COAST SHOULD EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE THE BAYSHORE COULD SEE HIGHS REACH
THE LOW 80S TODAY. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
THE COAST SEEING HIGHS AROUND 60 AND THE BAYSHORE SEEING HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WITHOUT THE MODERATING IMPACT OF THE ONSHORE SEA BREEZE, AND WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE STATE, INTERIOR REGIONS REMAIN WARM.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. A MINOR HEATRISK THROUGHOUT THE INLAND AREA, AND A
MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, AND SOUTH
BAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY; THIS MEANS THAT A LOW TO MODERATE
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES CONTINUES FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THE CONTINUING WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND, HERE'S A REMINDER OF
SOME HEAT SAFETY TIPS:
* STAY HYDRATED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
* WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
* REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE.
* NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
* USE SUNSCREEN IF GOING TO THE COAST OR THE POOL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING SOME POP-UP CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
NEAR SAN BRUNO MOUNTAIN. THE HREF AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING SOME CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF SAN BRUNO COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
OF MONTEREY COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR ISN'T SHOWING ANY
RAINFALL DEVELOPING IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA, WHICH WAS CARRIED FORWARD FROM OVERNIGHT. IF
SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, ANY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND TO
START FOR THE INTERIOR REGIONS AND CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL REGIONS
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TEMPERATURE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL RISE
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
INLAND VALLEYS HOVERING AROUND THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE MOST PART,
PERHAPS UP TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. TUESDAY, IN
PARTICULAR, SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN THE TEMPERATURES AS A SECOND
RIDGE COMES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, COMBINING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BRING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO LIE NEAR
THE SIERRAS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE TROUGH COMING THROUGH
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK OR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE 18TH AND
THE 24TH WILL BE AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRATUS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MRY AND SNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AT ALL STATIONS. HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS STRATUS EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SF PENINSULA. SOME STRATUS CONCERNS FOR SFO
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND STRATUS MOVES ALONG THE SF PENINSULA BUT
FOR NOW STRATUS LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF SFO. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
STRATUS WILL REACH OAK WITH HREF KEEPING STRATUS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COAST BUT INDICATING SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE SF BAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO KEEP STRATUS MOSTLY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE SF BAY. GENERAL TIMING FOR FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER SFO REMAINS WITH THE SAME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A CEILING
WILL DEVELOP. HREF DOES SHOW STRATUS EXTENDING INLAND OVER SFO SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WATCH ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WATSONVILLE/SANTA CRUZ COASTLINE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
PRIMARILY SW WINDS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP STRATUS AWAY FROM MRY AND
SNS THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE W/NW BY
THE LATE EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
TO FILTER IN BETWEEN 03-06Z. STRATUS WILL FILL IN AT BOTH STATIONS
BETWEEN 10-11Z. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT A FEW MODELS INDICATED STRATUS
MAY FILTER INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY EARLIER BETWEEN 07-8Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE COAST.
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD, MOVE
EAST, AND BRING BUILDING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER, AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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