251  
FXUS66 KSGX 010441  
AFDSGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA  
941 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS ALOFT. HIGHS FOR INLAND AREAS COULD RISE 10 TO 20 DEG F  
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL  
MAINTAIN SEASONAL WEATHER ALONG THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE SEASONAL  
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.  
   
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
 
 
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO  
COUNTIES...  
   
..EVENING UPDATE
 
 
THE 00Z RAOB FROM SAN DIEGO SHOWS A STRONG 10 C MARINE INVERSION  
AND THE HEIGHT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. COASTAL STRATUS  
IS ALREADY ACCELERATING INLAND AND SHOULD FILL MOST OF THE VALLEYS  
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY, WE DID SEE A FEW  
TCU BUILDUPS OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH  
A TRACE OF RAIN REPORTED BY A WEATHER SPOTTER. THE ATMOSPHERIC  
PROFILE WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER,  
THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AGAIN DURING THE  
HEAT OF THE DAY, MAINLY OVER THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
THE HEAT WAVE IS LOOKING TO BEGIN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES  
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERT. FRIDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING  
UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. OUR CURRENT  
FORECAST KEEPS A STRONG COASTAL INFLUENCE INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS  
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE A TOUGH FORECAST FOR THOSE  
AREAS, AS MORE CLEARING EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED  
WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SKYROCKET TO MUCH WARMER READINGS FOR  
THE WESTERN VALLEYS, AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES AS WELL.  
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY ANALYZED IN THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES...STAY TUNED!  
   
..PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 151 PM PDT)
 
 
AT 1 PM PDT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS  
ALONG THE COAST 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND. A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST  
MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 12 UTC MODEL RUNS  
ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK, WITH H500 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 594 DM  
SATURDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 27 DEG C WILL YIELD INLAND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S F IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERT  
THU-SAT, AND HIGHS BETWEEN 110-115 DEG F IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY  
AND SD COUNTY DESERTS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST  
DAYS THIS WEEK, WITH INLAND HIGHS RISING 10 TO 20 DEG F ABOVE  
SEASONAL NORMALS. A HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS  
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ONLY LOCATION AT  
THIS TIME THAT MAY BREAK OR TIE A RECORD HIGH THIS WEEK IS THERMAL ON  
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS 113 F, AND THE RECORD HIGH IS 113 F SET IN  
1996. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AT  
COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY LOWER SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
LOW PUSHES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND MOVES OVER SW CA. THIS WILL  
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW, DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER, AND HELP HIGH  
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND THE REGION. NO  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
010315Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC010-015 TOPS 019 SPREADING 25 MILES  
INLAND THROUGH 14Z. VIS RESTRICTIONS 3-5SM BR HZ AT KONT BETWEEN 12-  
18Z. CLOUDS CLEARING FROM THE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY, BUT  
SKIES REMAINING BKN-OVC010-015 AT KSAN, KCRQ AND KSNA THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY  
TONIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
815 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
815 PM...A 14-SECOND LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ABOVE  
AVERAGE SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST  
SURF WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN  
SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
FOR DETAILS, CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (LAXCFWSGX) AND THE  
SURF FORECAST (LAXSRFSGX).  
 

 
   
SKYWARN
 
 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE  
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY  
EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN  
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-  
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.  
 
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR  
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.  
 
PZ...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...JMB  
PREVIOUS...JJT  
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE  
 
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