813  
FXUS66 KSGX 191216  
AFDSGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA  
416 AM PST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS...DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY...STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL  
SPREAD LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
AT TIMES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR AREAS BORDERING LOS  
ANGELES COUNTY. A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH  
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN  
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRY AND LITTLE WARMER FOR  
FRIDAY...THEN A LITTLE COOLER FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
 
 
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO  
COUNTIES...  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
 
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND  
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND IN THE INLAND  
EMPIRE...DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE DESERTS...THERE ARE  
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. THERE WAS A  
RECENT SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG IN THE BORREGO SPRINGS AREA.  
 
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION FROM STORMS MOVING  
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TIMES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND INTO  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR AREAS  
BORDERING LOS ANGELES COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY  
HIGH...MOSTLY 7000 FEET FOR ABOVE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
 
 
A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE  
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG  
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRY AND LITTLE WARMER FOR FRIDAY...THEN  
A LITTLE COOLER FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.  
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND NOT  
AS AMPLIFIED AS THE GFS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD  
BRING PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
191040Z...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.  
VARIABLE CIGS 1500-3500 FT MSL BECOMING SCT-BKN 2500 FT MSL OR  
HIGHER BY 16Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL VIS 3-6  
SM IN SHOWERS AND IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY THROUGH 16Z. MOUNTAINS  
REMAINING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND FOG.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.  
COMBINED SEAS HAD PEAKED AT 19 FT AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BOUY AND  
HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO AROUND 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH SEAS AND  
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS.  
 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY CREATE MORE HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE  
AND SEAS NEAR 10 FEET.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
SWELL AND SURF WILL BE HIGH THIS MORNING WITH MAX SETS AROUND 12  
FEET, THEN LOWER GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOW-LYING COASTAL  
AREAS COULD BE AT RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO LARGE SURF.  
POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH SURF AS WELL. A HIGH  
SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
SKYWARN
 
 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE  
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY  
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.  
 
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL  
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT  
TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER  
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...17  
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS  
 
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