461
FXUS66 KSTO 101930
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1230 PM PDT FRI MAY 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 90S AND AREAS OF MODERATE
HEAT RISK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT GOES-WEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING APPPROXIMATELY 3 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, VALID AT
1230 PM PDT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NW WITH TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN
THE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH 80S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
60S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RESULTING IN
AREAS OF MODERATE HEAT RISK IN THE VALLEY EACH DAY. SENSITIVE
GROUPS AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS FOR THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH SIERRA SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 (10 TO 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY) ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH. FOR TODAY, CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAVE DECREASED (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY) AND
LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA OF COVERAGE, HOWEVER SOME CUMULUS
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THOUGH,
AND AS A RESULT THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) EVEN
SUGGESTS A 25 TO 55 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN
PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MID NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK OR EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME TROUGHING AS A POTENTIAL OUTCOME WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY VALLEY WINDS, LESS THAN 12
KTS. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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