192  
FXUS66 KSTO 181129  
AFDSTO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA  
329 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH  
ANOTHER DURING MID WEEK. EACH OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS WILL COME  
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE  
PASS LEVELS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
 
MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WIND FIELDS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY  
AIR OVER THE INTERIOR. OBSERVATIONS WERE CLEAR WITH VALLEY  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.  
 
MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE INCREASING ON  
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE  
TRANSITIONING TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS  
THE UPPER LEVEL SET UP INVOLVES A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH  
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT OF THE  
UPPER WIND CIRCULATION, MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO STREAM INTO THE  
WEST COAST. THE MAIN BRUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH  
INTO OREGON, BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN POSITIONED ENOUGH TO  
KEEP THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH SNOW LEVELS  
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AT 10K FEET AND ABOVE.  
 

 
 
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE  
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER  
THE WEST WHICH FAVORS LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS  
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ALONG WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS,  
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AROUND THANKSGIVING APPEAR FAIRLY MINIMAL AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF KSAC 14Z-18Z.  
 

 
   
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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