679  
FGUS73 KGLD 241428  
ESFGLD  
NEC057-087-145-KSC039-063-109-137-153-231200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
826 AM MDT TUE APR 24 2018  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2018 - 07/27/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:SOUTH FORK REPUBLICAN RIVER  
BENKELMAN 2SSW 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ARIKAREE RIVER  
HAIGLER 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
BENKELMAN 1SW 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 13 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
STRATTON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FRENCHMAN CREEK  
CULBERTSON 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:DRIFTWOOD CREEK  
MCCOOK 4SW 17.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
MCCOOK 1SE 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LUDELL 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 31 33 10 9 <5 <5  
CEDAR BLUFFS 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SAPPA CREEK  
OBERLIN 1SW 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 33 34 15 16 <5 5  
NORCATUR 15NE 17.0 20.0 22.0 : 19 18 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
OAKLEY 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:HACKBERRY CREEK  
GOVE 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER  
LENORA 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2018 - 07/27/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SOUTH FORK REPUBLICAN RIVER  
BENKELMAN 2SSW 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 3.5 4.6 5.2  
:ARIKAREE RIVER  
HAIGLER 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.8 9.0 9.4 9.7  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
BENKELMAN 1SW 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 6.1 7.1 7.3  
STRATTON 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 8.5 9.2 10.5  
:FRENCHMAN CREEK  
CULBERTSON 2.6 2.6 3.0 4.7 6.2 7.3 7.6  
:DRIFTWOOD CREEK  
MCCOOK 4SW 2.9 2.9 3.7 8.0 10.6 12.0 13.5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
MCCOOK 1SE 5.1 5.1 5.3 6.2 7.2 7.9 8.4  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LUDELL 2.3 3.0 3.6 6.2 9.4 11.0 11.4  
CEDAR BLUFFS 2.7 2.7 2.7 6.7 8.9 11.6 12.5  
:SAPPA CREEK  
OBERLIN 1SW 2.0 2.0 2.1 8.3 12.4 15.3 16.4  
NORCATUR 15NE 5.3 5.4 6.6 8.8 15.4 17.8 18.2  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
OAKLEY 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.7 7.2 7.6 10.3  
:HACKBERRY CREEK  
GOVE 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.8 9.4 11.2  
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER  
LENORA 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 5.8 6.8 8.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2018 - 07/27/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SOUTH FORK REPUBLICAN RIVER  
BENKELMAN 2SSW 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
:ARIKAREE RIVER  
HAIGLER 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
BENKELMAN 1SW 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2  
STRATTON 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.1  
:FRENCHMAN CREEK  
CULBERTSON 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9  
:DRIFTWOOD CREEK  
MCCOOK 4SW 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
MCCOOK 1SE 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1  
:BEAVER CREEK  
LUDELL 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
CEDAR BLUFFS 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7  
:SAPPA CREEK  
OBERLIN 1SW 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
NORCATUR 15NE 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
OAKLEY 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:HACKBERRY CREEK  
GOVE 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2  
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER  
LENORA 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GLD FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF NEXT MONTH.  
 

 
 
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