008  
FGUS75 KPUB 122143  
ESFPUB  
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-  
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-261800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
341 PM MDT THU OCT 12 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 10/12/2017 - 01/10/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
LEADVILLE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SALIDA 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WELLSVILLE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PARKDALE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CANON CITY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PORTLAND 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PUEBLO 8.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
AVONDALE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NEPESTA 16.5 17.5 18.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FOWLER 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ROCKY FORD 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LA JUNTA 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAMAR 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FOUNTAIN CREEK  
COLORADO SPRINGS 11.5 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FOUNTAIN 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PINON 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PUEBLO 10.0 12.0 13.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ST. CHARLES RIVER  
VINELAND 12.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PURGATOIRE RIVER  
MADRID 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TRINIDAD LAKE 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TRINIDAD 11.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAS ANIMAS 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 10/12/2017 - 01/10/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
LEADVILLE 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2  
SALIDA 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5  
WELLSVILLE 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4  
PARKDALE 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7  
CANON CITY 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.6  
PORTLAND 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.6  
PUEBLO 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.3  
AVONDALE 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.3 5.3  
NEPESTA 12.1 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.4 14.2 15.0  
FOWLER 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 4.2 5.4  
ROCKY FORD 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.5  
LA JUNTA 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.6 8.1 9.4 9.9  
LAMAR 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.8 8.8 10.4  
:FOUNTAIN CREEK  
COLORADO SPRINGS 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.2  
FOUNTAIN 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.8 9.0  
PINON 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.1  
PUEBLO 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 5.2 5.5  
:ST. CHARLES RIVER  
VINELAND 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.4 5.6 6.9  
:PURGATOIRE RIVER  
MADRID 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2  
TRINIDAD LAKE 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.7  
TRINIDAD 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6  
LAS ANIMAS 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 8.7 9.7  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PUB FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26.  
 

 
 
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