639
FGUS75 KPUB 250958
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-010700-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 2.9 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 11/24/2009 - 3/23/2010
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
SALIDA 8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2
WELLSVILLE 9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
PARKDALE 9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3
CANON CITY 9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0
PORTLAND 9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6
PUEBLO 8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.0
AVONDALE 7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0
NEPESTA 16.5 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4
FOWLER 8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.9
ROCKY FORD 10 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0
LA JUNTA 10 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.7
LAMAR 11 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.9 6.9
FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0
FOUNTAIN 8 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9
PINON 7 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3
PUEBLO 10 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0
ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8
PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3
TRINIDAD 11 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7
LAS ANIMAS 9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 5.3 6.2 6.5
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN COLORADO IN OCTOBER...AND 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES
AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO WERE 6.2 AND 6.3 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE AT ALAMOSA WAS 2.4 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER WAS GENERALLY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE PRIMARY SITES AT PUEBLO AND ALAMOSA
WERE 1.28 AND 0.66 INCHES ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY
SITE AT COLORADO SPRINGS WAS 0.50 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE.
STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS
AND UPPER RIO GRANDE BASINS AT THE END OF OCTOBER. SOIL MOISTURE
WAS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND GENERALLY
NEAR AVERAGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE
ARKANSAS BASIN AT THE END OF OCTOBER. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 98
PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE AND THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 92
PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE OVERALL.
THE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE...OR BELOW
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
..EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
LW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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