866
FNUS75 KBOU 221346
FWSBOU
SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGARLOAF F1...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
645 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE BURN AREA IS IN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL
PASS OVER THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF CLOUDS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM NOW
UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WYOMING TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE BURN AREA MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FAST MOVING STORM WILL LIKELY BE FELT WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
..THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 0900...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1400...THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY(35-45%). CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-41.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-12 MPH. POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3400-4400 FT AGL BY 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN
GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
1600...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
2200...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....18-23.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-89%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 600-1200 FT AGL BY 0500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1400...THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-36.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 16-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST
17-28 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 5200-6200 FT AGL BY 1600.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN
VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
THANKSGIVING DAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH.
EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUGARLOAF F1.
+++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH
INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED
IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS
BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++
FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV
VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG
MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT
11/22-06 33 0 23 74 W 10 1 1245 W 18 21668 P
11/22-07 33 0 23 72 W 9 1 1739 W 21 32299 P
11/22-08 60 0 26 64 W 8 8 3 1 NW24 2233 W 22 42929 F
11/22-09 60 0 30 54 W 9 1 2810 W 23 56384 F
11/22-10 60 0 34 47 W 9 1 3387 W 23 69838 G
11/22-11 60 0 37 44 W 9 9 2 1 W36 3964 W 24 83292 G
11/22-12 60 0 38 43 W 9 1 4339 W 25 95473 G
11/22-13 60 0 38 43 W 8 1 4715 W 26 107654 V
11/22-14 44 0 38 44 W 7 7 2 1 W47 5091 W 28 119835 V
11/22-15 44 0 38 44 W 8 1 4333 W 28 104009 V
11/22-16 44 0 37 44 W 10 1 3575 W 29 88184 G
11/22-17 74 34 36 47 W 12 12 2 1 W40 2817 W 30 72359 G
11/22-18 74 34 33 50 W 9 1 2091 W 29 53585 F
11/22-19 74 34 31 54 W 10 1 1366 W 29 34811 P
11/22-20 74 34 29 57 W 12 12 2 1 W39 640 W 29 16037 P
11/22-21 74 34 27 60 W 12 1 607 W 29 15208 P
11/22-22 74 34 27 61 W 12 1 574 W 29 14379 P
11/22-23 90 40 26 62 W 13 13 2 1 W48 540 W 29 13550 P
11/23-00 90 40 25 62 W 14 1 615 W 31 16813 P
11/23-01 90 40 24 63 W 15 1 690 W 33 20076 P
11/23-02 90 40 23 65 W 16 25 2 1 W39 765 W 35 23340 P
11/23-03 90 40 23 68 W 15 1 627 W 31 17761 P
11/23-04 90 40 22 73 W 14 1 489 W 26 12183 P
11/23-05 81 18 20 80 W 12 12 2 1 W51 351 W 22 6604 P
11/23-06 81 18 20 82 W 18 1 1597 W 28 38431 P
11/23-07 81 18 20 82 W 18 1 2653 W 28 63679 G
11/23-08 81 18 22 76 W 20 31 2 1 W58 3709 W 28 88926 G
11/23-09 81 18 25 68 W 21 1 4286 W 29 109770 V
11/23-10 81 18 27 60 W 22 1 4862 NW 31 130614 V
11/23-11 72 18 29 57 W 22 35 2 1 NW38 5439 NW 32 151458 E
11/23-12 72 18 30 54 W 21 1 5842 NW 28 136008 V
11/23-13 72 18 31 53 W 18 1 6245 NW 23 120558 V
11/23-14 72 18 31 52 W 17 28 2 1 NW37 6648 NW 18 105108 V
11/23-15 72 18 31 52 W 16 1 6214 NW 18 97037 G
11/23-16 72 18 29 55 W 16 1 5779 NW 17 88967 G
11/23-17 48 7 26 61 W 16 25 2 1 NW37 5345 NW 17 80896 G
11/23-18 48 7 24 67 W 16 1 4899 NW 17 74445 G
11/23-19 48 7 22 71 W 17 1 4453 NW 17 67993 G
11/23-20 48 7 21 73 W 17 28 2 1 NW35 4006 NW 17 61542 G
11/23-21 48 7 20 74 W 17 1 3632 NW 17 56143 F
11/23-22 48 7 20 75 W 18 1 3259 NW 18 50745 F
11/23-23 48 0 19 76 W 18 30 2 1 NW38 2885 NW 18 45346 F
11/24-00 48 0 19 78 W 18 1 2417 NW 17 37575 P
11/24-01 48 0 18 80 W 18 1 1949 NW 17 29804 P
11/24-02 48 0 17 81 W 18 30 2 1 N55 1481 NW 17 22032 P
11/24-03 48 0 17 84 W 18 1 1312 NW 17 19562 P
11/24-04 48 0 17 85 W 18 1 1142 NW 17 17091 P
11/24-05 42 0 16 87 W 18 30 3 1 N56 973 NW 17 14621 P
11/24-06 42 0 16 89 W 18 1 1037 NW 17 15772 P
11/24-07 42 0 17 85 W 18 1 1101 NW 17 16923 P
11/24-08 42 0 20 73 W 18 30 4 1 N56 1166 NW 18 18074 P
11/24-09 42 0 25 58 W 18 1 1629 NW 20 28839 P
11/24-10 42 0 30 46 W 18 1 2093 NW 21 39603 P
11/24-11 42 0 33 40 W 18 30 4 1 N41 2556 NW 23 50367 F
11/24-12 42 0 35 38 W 17 1 2758 NW 22 51267 F
11/24-13 42 0 36 37 W 16 1 2959 NW 21 52168 F
11/24-14 42 0 37 37 W 15 24 3 1 NW26 3160 NW 20 53069 F
11/24-15 42 0 37 38 W 15 1 2693 NW 17 42652 F
11/24-16 42 0 35 41 W 15 1 2226 NW 16 32235 P
11/24-17 37 0 33 47 W 16 25 2 1 NW20 1759 NW 14 21818 P
11/24-18 37 0 30 53 W 15 1 1453 NW 14 17601 P
11/24-19 37 0 28 58 W 15 1 1147 NW 13 13385 P
11/24-20 37 0 27 61 W 15 24 2 1 N13 841 W 13 9168 P
11/24-21 37 0 27 64 W 15 1 678 W 13 7356 P
11/24-22 37 0 26 67 W 14 1 515 W 13 5543 P
11/24-23 37 0 25 69 W 14 22 2 1 NW14 352 W 13 3731 P
11/25-00 37 0 25 71 W 14 1 320 W 13 3392 P
11/25-01 37 0 24 72 W 13 1 289 W 13 3053 P
11/25-02 37 0 23 74 W 13 13 2 1 NW22 257 W 13 2714 P
11/25-03 37 0 23 75 W 13 1 250 W 12 2604 P
11/25-04 37 0 23 77 W 12 1 244 W 12 2494 P
11/25-05 37 2 22 79 W 12 12 2 1 NW24 238 W 12 2384 P
KEY:
FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
VALID AT
SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/
TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI - HAINES INDEX
LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD
V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT
FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...ED LEBLANC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091122.SUGAR.01/BOU
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