397  
FNUS75 KBOU 251911  
FWSBOU  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 676 TRAIL...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
111 PM MDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1400 MDT ON JULY 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND  
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. SMOKE PLUME WILL BE CARRIED OFF TO  
THE NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY VERY GOOD DISPERSAL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND INTENSITY WILL BE  
WEAK. MAIN IMPACTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM AFTER 3 PM WOULD BE  
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. OVERALL  
THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE SITE IS AROUND 30%.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER NICELY OVERNIGHT, STARTING OUT  
AROUND 25-50% AND INCREASING TO 80% BY SUNRISE. A COOL FRONT WITH  
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL  
IMPACT THE SITE MID MORNING, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE COOL AND MOIST  
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........29%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000-10300 FT AGL UNTIL 1600, THEN 5800-6800  
FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500. GOOD AFTER 1700.  
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0200, THEN PARTLY  
CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL  
2300, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL  
2400.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300, THEN 3 UNTIL 2400, THEN 1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77%.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100, THEN 1300-1600 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900, THEN POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200, THEN CLOUDY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0900 UNTIL  
1200, THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900, THEN 3 UNTIL 1200, THEN 4.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48%.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0900.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL UNTIL 1100, THEN 4900-5900 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200, THEN  
GOOD UNTIL 1300, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600, THEN  
POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
 
FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR 676 TRAIL.  
 
+++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE  
FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM  
INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++  
 
FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 15KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV  
VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG  
MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT  
 
07/25-14 75 40 18 80 32 SW 6 6 4 4 10045 SW 15129579 V  
07/25-15 80 42 19 79 35 WSW 7 7 4 4 10340 SW 13112359 V  
07/25-16 84 43 20 77 38 WSW 9 14 3 4 7277 SW 15 94012 G  
07/25-17 88 45 22 74 43 WNW 8 13 2 4 5307 W 15 70301 G  
07/25-18 87 45 22 71 49 NW 7 7 2 4 3337 WNW 16 45297 F  
07/25-19 87 45 22 69 54 NW 6 6 2 4 2664 WNW 13 30473 P  
07/25-20 81 39 17 66 62 NW 6 6 2 4 1992 WNW 10 18524 P  
07/25-21 81 33 12 64 67 NW 5 5 2 4 1320 WNW 8 9451 P  
07/25-22 75 27 7 63 69 NW 3 3 2 4 1311 WNW 8 8577 P  
07/25-23 69 21 4 62 71 WNW 3 3 2 3 1302 WNW 7 7714 P  
07/26-00 63 8 2 62 70 WNW 3 3 2 1 1293 WNW 6 6862 P  
07/26-01 60 8 2 62 70 WNW 3 3 2 1 1381 NW 7 8395 P  
07/26-02 58 9 2 62 70 NW 5 5 2 1 1468 NNW 8 10062 P  
07/26-03 55 9 2 61 72 NW 5 5 2 1 1555 N 9 11865 P  
07/26-04 55 9 2 60 74 NW 5 5 2 1 1558 N 9 12292 P  
07/26-05 55 9 2 58 77 NW 5 5 2 1 1561 N 9 12720 P  
07/26-06 49 8 2 58 75 NW 5 5 2 1 1564 N 9 13149 P  
07/26-07 49 8 2 60 73 NW 5 5 2 1 1905 N 9 15128 P  
07/26-08 49 8 2 63 68 NNW 5 5 2 1 2247 NNW 8 16786 P  
07/26-09 40 21 4 66 63 N 5 5 2 3 2589 NNW 8 18975 P  
07/26-10 40 21 4 70 56 N 6 6 2 3 3630 NNW 9 30604 P  
07/26-11 40 21 4 73 51 NNE 7 7 2 3 4671 NNW 12 44529 F  
07/26-12 83 36 14 75 48 NNE 8 13 2 4 5712 NNW 13 60748 G  
07/26-13 83 36 14 76 48 NNE 8 14 2 4 5967 N 10 56498 F  
07/26-14 83 36 14 76 49 NE 8 14 2 4 6222 N 9 51653 F  
07/26-15 83 53 28 75 52 NE 8 13 2 4 6477 N 8 46213 F  
07/26-16 83 53 28 73 55 NE 7 7 2 4 5499 NNE 8 38807 P  
07/26-17 83 53 28 70 61 NE 7 7 2 4 4521 NNE 8 31554 P  
07/26-18 98 60 38 67 68 NE 6 6 2 5 3543 NNE 8 24453 P  
07/26-19 98 60 38 65 74 E 6 6 2 5 3113 ENE 7 19721 P  
07/26-20 98 60 38 63 80 S 5 5 2 5 2682 SSE 7 15476 P  
07/26-21 98 60 38 61 87 SW 5 5 2 5 2252 SSW 6 11718 P  
07/26-22 98 60 38 60 89 SW 5 5 2 5 2115 S 6 11283 P  
07/26-23 98 60 38 60 88 SSW 3 3 2 5 1979 S 6 10813 P  
07/27-00 92 42 19 60 87 SSW 3 3 2 1 1842 S 7 10307 P  
07/27-01 92 42 19 60 86 SSW 3 3 2 1 1701 S 7 10570 P  
07/27-02 92 42 19 59 88 S 3 3 2 1 1559 S 8 10659 P  
07/27-03 92 42 19 59 87 S 3 3 2 1 1418 SSW 8 10573 P  
07/27-04 92 42 19 58 87 S 3 3 2 1 1382 SSW 9 10970 P  
07/27-05 92 42 19 58 84 SSW 5 5 2 1 1346 SW 9 11333 P  
07/27-06 78 33 12 59 80 SSW 5 5 2 1 1311 SW 10 11662 P  
07/27-07 76 33 12 60 80 SSW 5 5 2 1 1974 SW 10 17711 P  
07/27-08 74 33 12 62 78 S 3 3 2 1 2638 SW 10 23855 P  
07/27-09 74 33 12 64 75 SSE 3 3 2 4 3302 WSW 10 30096 P  
07/27-10 77 33 12 67 68 SSE 3 3 2 4 4505 WSW 8 33385 P  
07/27-11 82 33 12 70 61 SE 3 3 2 4 5708 WSW 7 32574 P  
07/27-12 86 48 24 72 57 SE 5 5 2 4 6911 W 5 27664 P  
07/27-13 87 48 24 73 56 SE 6 6 2 4 7257 SW 6 33233 P  
07/27-14 86 48 24 73 57 SE 7 7 2 4 7602 S 6 39202 P  
07/27-15 86 48 24 73 57 SE 7 7 2 4 7948 SSE 7 45570 F  
07/27-16 84 48 24 72 59 SSE 7 7 2 4 6618 SSE 7 42391 F  
07/27-17 82 48 24 71 61 SSE 6 6 2 4 5289 S 8 37425 P  
07/27-18 84 26 6 69 66 SSE 6 6 2 4 3959 S 9 30674 P  
07/27-19 85 26 6 67 71 SSE 6 6 2 4 3229 S 10 28464 P  
07/27-20 85 26 6 64 78 S 7 7 3 4 2499 SSW 12 24695 P  
07/27-21 82 26 6 62 84 S 7 7 3 4 1769 SSW 13 19367 P  
07/27-22 72 26 6 60 88 S 7 7 3 4 1577 SSW 13 17344 P  
07/27-23 58 26 6 59 89 SSW 7 7 3 4 1385 SW 13 15302 P  
07/28-00 48 10 2 59 87 SSW 7 7 3 1 1193 SW 13 13242 P  
07/28-01 42 10 2 59 84 SSW 7 7 3 1 1149 SW 12 11509 P  
07/28-02 39 10 2 60 78 SSW 8 13 3 1 1104 WSW 10 9873 P  
07/28-03 38 10 2 59 78 SSW 8 13 3 1 1059 WSW 9 8333 P  
07/28-04 38 10 2 58 78 SW 8 13 3 1 1092 W 8 8045 P  
07/28-05 38 10 2 57 79 SW 8 8 3 1 1125 WNW 8 7723 P  
07/28-06 40 10 2 58 75 SW 7 7 3 1 1158 WNW 7 5478 P  
07/28-07 52 10 2 61 66 SSW 6 6 3 1 2308 W 7 13295 P  
07/28-08 57 10 2 67 54 SSE 6 6 3 1 3613 WNW 7 21889 P  
07/28-09 62 10 2 71 47 SE 5 5 3 1 4918 NW 7 31259 P  
07/28-10 67 10 2 75 42 ESE 5 5 3 1 6223 N 8 41407 F  
07/28-11 72 10 2 77 41 E 3 3 3 1 7528 N 8 52331 F  
07/28-12 74 26 6 78 40 ENE 3 3 3 4 8833 NNE 8 64031 G  
07/28-13 74 26 6 78 41 ENE 3 3 3 4 8729 NNE 8 63394 G  
07/28-14 73 26 6 78 42 E 3 3 3 4 8626 NNE 8 62754 G  
07/28-15 72 26 6 77 43 E 3 3 3 4 8522 NE 8 62112 G  
07/28-16 71 26 6 76 45 E 3 3 3 4 8419 NE 8 61467 G  
07/28-17 70 26 6 74 48 ESE 3 3 3 4 8315 NE 8 60819 G  
07/28-18 69 16 3 72 51 ESE 3 3 3 3 8212 NE 8 60168 G  
 
KEY:  
 
FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST  
VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/  
SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/  
PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/  
WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/  
AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/  
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/  
20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/  
GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/  
HI - HAINES INDEX  
LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL  
15KFT WIND - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/  
MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/  
TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/  
VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/  
AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING  
P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD  
V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT  
 

 
FORECASTER...SCHLATTER  
REQUESTED BY...LYNDSEY WOLGRAM  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1713377.0/BOU  
 
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