817  
FNUS75 KBOU 231629  
FWSBOU  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR EVERGREEN FIRE WILDLAND FIRE TRAINING...OTHER  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
1029 AM MDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST  
SIDE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL  
REMAIN OVER COLORADO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS, MUCH COOLER AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. IN THE  
HIGH COUNTRY, CONDITIONS WILL START OUT TODAY RELATIVELY WARM AND  
DRY, BUT THROUGH THE DAY CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH,  
NEAR TIMBERLINE, BUT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES COOL,  
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 9500 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
IN THE EVERGREEN AREA, SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER  
THE NOON HOUR, PERHAPS AROUND 1300 OR 1330 HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1600, THEN RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT AFTER 1500.  
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1300, THEN 3.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15-25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200, THEN  
GOOD UNTIL 1500, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700, THEN  
POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL  
2200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 2400, THEN  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.  
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200, THEN 1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
 
FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR EVERGREEN FIRE WILDLAND FIRE TRAINING.  
 
+++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE  
FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM  
INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++  
 
FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 15KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV  
VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG  
MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT  
 
09/23-10 81 18 4 44 84 S 5 5 2 3 2110 S 21 38896 P  
09/23-11 87 29 8 46 78 S 7 7 2 2 2837 S 23 58118 F  
09/23-12 90 40 18 48 74 SSE 8 13 2 3 3565 S 26 80320 G  
09/23-13 89 55 30 50 70 SSE 9 15 2 3 3255 S 25 70245 G  
09/23-14 88 70 53 49 73 SSE 10 16 2 3 2946 S 24 60761 G  
09/23-15 88 72 56 48 77 SE 10 16 2 3 2637 S 23 51866 F  
09/23-16 88 73 57 47 79 SSE 9 15 2 3 2494 S 20 42662 F  
09/23-17 89 71 54 47 78 SSE 7 7 2 3 2351 S 17 34191 P  
09/23-18 90 69 51 47 77 S 6 6 2 3 2208 S 14 26451 P  
09/23-19 90 67 48 46 80 S 6 6 2 3 1926 S 13 21542 P  
09/23-20 90 65 45 44 86 S 6 6 2 3 1644 SSE 12 17081 P  
09/23-21 90 63 42 43 89 S 6 6 2 3 1362 SSE 12 13068 P  
09/23-22 89 61 39 42 91 S 6 6 2 1 1394 SSE 9 11642 P  
09/23-23 89 55 30 42 88 S 5 5 2 1 1427 S 8 10135 P  
09/24-00 85 48 24 42 86 S 5 5 2 1 1460 S 7 8546 P  
09/24-01 80 42 19 42 83 S 5 5 2 1 1448 S 7 8873 P  
09/24-02 76 42 19 41 84 S 6 6 2 1 1437 S 7 9194 P  
09/24-03 69 41 18 41 82 SSE 6 6 2 1 1425 S 8 9509 P  
09/24-04 71 41 18 40 84 SSE 6 6 2 1 1402 S 8 9504 P  
09/24-05 72 42 19 39 86 SE 5 5 2 1 1379 S 8 9493 P  
09/24-06 74 42 19 38 89 ESE 3 3 2 1 1356 S 8 9478 P  
09/24-07 75 42 19 37 94 ESE 2 2 2 1 1394 S 9 10673 P  
09/24-08 76 42 19 37 95 ESE 2 2 2 1 1431 S 9 11917 P  
09/24-09 77 42 19 38 92 SE 2 2 2 1 1468 S 10 12838 P  
09/24-10 78 42 19 40 84 SE 3 3 2 1 1871 S 13 19972 P  
09/24-11 79 42 19 43 72 SE 3 3 2 1 2273 S 15 28661 P  
09/24-12 80 60 38 45 65 SE 5 5 2 1 2675 S 17 38905 P  
09/24-13 79 59 36 45 65 SE 5 5 2 1 2628 S 16 37193 P  
09/24-14 78 59 36 44 68 SE 5 5 2 1 2581 S 16 35518 P  
09/24-15 77 59 36 43 70 SE 5 5 2 1 2534 S 15 33880 P  
09/24-16 79 59 36 43 70 SE 5 5 2 1 2203 S 13 24853 P  
09/24-17 82 59 36 44 66 ESE 3 3 2 1 1871 S 10 17208 P  
09/24-18 83 45 22 43 73 ESE 3 3 2 1 1540 S 8 10947 P  
09/24-19 83 45 22 40 76 E 3 3 2 1 1446 S 7 8488 P  
09/24-20 83 45 22 38 83 E 2 2 2 1 1352 S 6 6262 P  
09/24-21 83 45 22 36 89 E 2 2 2 1 1257 S 3 4269 P  
09/24-22 83 45 22 35 90 NE 2 2 2 1 1332 SSW 5 5033 P  
09/24-23 83 45 22 35 88 NNW 2 2 2 1 1406 SW 5 5854 P  
09/25-00 78 33 12 34 89 NW 2 2 2 1 1480 WSW 6 6732 P  
09/25-01 78 33 12 34 86 W 2 2 2 1 1505 WSW 6 7203 P  
09/25-02 78 33 12 35 80 SSW 2 2 2 1 1530 SW 6 7685 P  
09/25-03 78 33 12 34 82 S 2 2 2 1 1556 SW 6 8179 P  
09/25-04 78 33 12 33 83 S 2 2 2 1 1396 SW 6 6821 P  
09/25-05 78 33 12 32 85 SSW 2 2 2 1 1236 SW 6 5581 P  
09/25-06 74 32 11 31 88 SW 2 2 2 1 1076 SW 5 4460 P  
09/25-07 74 32 11 31 89 SSW 2 2 2 1 1163 SW 5 4945 P  
09/25-08 74 32 11 32 87 SSE 2 2 2 1 1251 SW 5 5448 P  
09/25-09 74 32 11 34 82 ESE 2 2 2 1 1339 WSW 5 5969 P  
09/25-10 74 32 11 37 72 SE 2 2 2 1 1607 SW 5 7198 P  
09/25-11 74 32 11 39 67 SE 3 3 2 1 1875 S 5 8437 P  
09/25-12 72 47 23 41 62 SE 3 3 2 1 2144 S 6 9686 P  
09/25-13 72 47 23 42 61 SE 3 3 2 1 2076 S 7 11830 P  
09/25-14 72 47 23 41 65 ESE 5 5 2 1 2009 S 8 13815 P  
09/25-15 72 47 23 40 70 ESE 5 5 2 1 1941 S 9 15640 P  
09/25-16 72 47 23 39 74 SE 5 5 2 1 1801 S 9 13653 P  
09/25-17 72 47 23 38 78 SE 3 3 2 1 1662 S 8 11800 P  
09/25-18 81 50 26 37 82 SE 3 3 2 1 1522 S 8 10081 P  
09/25-19 83 50 26 40 73 SE 3 3 2 1 1444 S 8 9597 P  
09/25-20 86 50 26 40 73 ESE 2 2 2 1 1365 S 8 9110 P  
09/25-21 88 50 26 40 73 E 2 2 2 1 1286 S 8 8618 P  
09/25-22 84 50 26 40 72 ESE 2 2 2 1 1287 S 7 8076 P  
09/25-23 75 50 26 39 74 SE 2 2 2 1 1288 SSW 7 7533 P  
09/26-00 71 36 14 38 76 SSE 2 2 2 1 1289 SSW 6 6989 P  
09/26-01 71 36 14 38 74 SSE 2 2 2 1 1301 SSW 6 6158 P  
09/26-02 70 36 14 37 75 S 2 2 2 1 1313 SSW 5 5312 P  
09/26-03 69 36 14 36 75 S 2 2 2 1 1324 SSW 3 4449 P  
09/26-04 62 36 14 34 79 S 2 2 2 1 1257 S 3 3969 P  
09/26-05 48 36 14 32 83 SW 2 2 2 1 1189 SE 3 3517 P  
09/26-06 41 2 0 32 82 SW 2 2 2 1 1121 ESE 3  
 
KEY:  
 
FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST  
VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/  
SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/  
PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/  
WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/  
AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/  
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/  
20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/  
GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/  
HI - HAINES INDEX  
LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL  
15KFT WIND - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/  
MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/  
TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/  
VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/  
AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING  
P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD  
V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT  
 

 
FORECASTER...BAKER  
REQUESTED BY...KYLE MICKELSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1716169.0/BOU  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page Main Text Page