371  
FNUS75 KBOU 231544  
FWSBOU  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR COLORADO TRAIL PILES...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
844 AM MST FRI FEB 23 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON FEBRUARY 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING AFTER 1400 MST, AND CONTINUING ONLY THROUGH 1900 MST.  
ALTHOUGH BAILEY RAWS IS SHOWING AN EAST WIND AT FORECAST ISSUANCE  
TIME, MORRISON CREEK DRAINAGE SHOULD CHANNEL MORE OF A SOUTHWEST  
WIND FLOW, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN DUE SOUTH.  
 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO  
THIS MORNING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER  
DISTURBANCE, WHICH ITS CORE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE  
COLORADO-WYOMING BORDER DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION  
SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION NORTH AND WEST OF  
THE BURN WITH PASSAGE OF THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000, THEN 5900-6900 FT  
AGL UNTIL 1600, THEN 4200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-30 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900, THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000,  
THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500, THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL  
1600, THEN GOOD.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-35%).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 8 ABOVE.  
MAX HUMIDITY........66%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL UNTIL 2000, THEN 1100-1600 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1900, THEN  
POOR.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1300, THEN MOSTLY  
SUNNY.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.  
MIN HUMIDITY........26%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-2700 FT AGL UNTIL 0900, THEN 4900-5900 FT  
AGL UNTIL 1100, THEN 6000-7000 FT AGL UNTIL  
1500, THEN 3300-4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700, THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900, THEN  
GOOD UNTIL 1000, THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100,  
THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1300, THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL  
1500, THEN GOOD.  
 
FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COLORADO TRAIL PILES.  
 
+++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE  
FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM  
INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++  
 
FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 15KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV  
VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG  
MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT  
 
02/23-07 38 1 0 15 60 SSW 6 7 2 1 877 SW 10 7856 P  
02/23-08 39 1 0 18 55 SSW 6 7 2 1 835 SW 9 6655 P  
02/23-09 40 1 0 20 50 SSW 7 8 2 1 2908 SW 13 31042 P  
02/23-10 41 2 0 23 46 SSW 7 7 2 1 4981 SW 15 66647 G  
02/23-11 42 2 0 28 39 S 8 13 2 1 7054 SW 18113472 V  
02/23-12 49 6 1 31 35 SSW 9 14 2 1 7595 SSW 20130155 V  
02/23-13 56 9 2 33 32 SSW 9 15 3 1 8136 SSW 21147974 V  
02/23-14 64 13 3 33 33 SSW 9 15 3 1 8676 SSW 22166931 E  
02/23-15 71 16 3 31 37 SSW 9 14 3 1 6627 S 21117741 V  
02/23-16 78 20 4 29 42 S 8 13 3 1 4577 S 18 74586 G  
02/23-17 86 45 22 26 50 S 7 7 3 1 2528 SSE 17 37468 P  
02/23-18 84 45 22 23 58 S 6 6 3 1 1998 S 15 25256 P  
02/23-19 82 45 22 20 65 SSW 5 5 3 1 1469 S 12 15357 P  
02/23-20 80 45 22 17 74 SW 3 3 3 1 939 S 9 7770 P  
02/23-21 78 45 22 16 77 WSW 3 3 3 1 951 SSW 9 8072 P  
02/23-22 76 45 22 15 80 W 3 3 3 1 962 W 10 8378 P  
02/23-23 75 32 11 14 84 NW 3 3 3 1 973 NW 10 8689 P  
02/24-00 69 32 11 13 88 WNW 3 3 3 1 1113 NW 8 7982 P  
02/24-01 64 32 11 12 93 WNW 5 5 3 1 1253 W 6 6782 P  
02/24-02 58 32 11 11 96 WNW 5 5 3 1 1393 W 5 5089 P  
02/24-03 53 32 11 11 92 WNW 6 6 3 1 1710 W 8 12706 P  
02/24-04 47 32 11 10 90 W 6 6 3 1 2027 WNW 13 22715 P  
02/24-05 42 6 1 10 83 W 7 7 3 1 2343 NW 17 35116 P  
02/24-06 34 6 1 10 76 W 8 13 3 1 2767 WNW 21 49771 F  
02/24-07 27 6 1 11 66 W 9 15 3 1 3190 WNW 24 66970 G  
02/24-08 19 5 1 13 58 W 10 16 3 1 3613 WNW 28 87856 G  
02/24-09 17 5 1 15 50 W 10 16 3 1 4941 WNW 29122796 V  
02/24-10 16 5 1 18 44 W 12 18 3 1 6269 W 29159153 E  
02/24-11 14 2 0 22 37 W 13 21 3 1 7598 W 30196927 E  
02/24-12 15 2 0 25 33 W 14 22 3 1 7218 W 30188421 E  
02/24-13 17 2 0 26 33 WNW 14 22 3 1 6838 W 30179774 E  
02/24-14 18 2 0 27 32 WNW 14 22 3 1 6458 W 30170987 E  
02/24-15 19 2 0 26 33 WNW 12 18 3 1 5349 W 28129660 V  
02/24-16 22 2 0 24 34 WNW 9 15 3 1 4240 W 25 93294 G  
02/24-17 23 2 0 21 39 W 7 7 3 1 3131 W 23 61889 G  
02/24-18 26 2 0 17 46 W 7 7 2 1 2624 W 20 44886 F  
02/24-19 33 2 0 14 50 WSW 6 6 2 1 2117 W 16 30580 P  
02/24-20 36 2 0 12 55 WSW 6 6 2 1 1610 W 14 18973 P  
02/24-21 35 2 0 10 60 WSW 7 7 2 1 1529 W 15 19750 P  
02/24-22 32 2 0 10 60 WSW 7 7 2 1 1449 W 16 20344 P  
02/24-23 31 1 0 9 63 WSW 8 13 2 1 1368 W 17 20756 P  
02/25-00 33 1 0 9 63 WSW 8 13 2 1 1282 W 17 19122 P  
02/25-01 36 1 0 10 60 WSW 7 7 3 1 1195 W 17 17532 P  
02/25-02 38 1 0 9 63 W 7 7 3 1 1109 W 16 15985 P  
02/25-03 38 1 0 9 63 W 8 13 3 1 1261 W 17 18533 P  
02/25-04 37 1 0 8 66 W 8 13 3 1 1413 W 17 21166 P  
02/25-05 37 3 1 8 66 W 8 13 3 1 1566 W 17 23885 P  
02/25-06 38 3 1 9 63 W 8 13 3 1 1946 W 18 31766 P  
02/25-07 39 3 1 11 57 W 9 15 3 1 2327 WNW 20 40456 F  
02/25-08 40 3 1 14 50 W 9 15 3 1 2708 WNW 21 49956 F  
02/25-09 39 3 1 17 44 W 10 16 3 1 4452 WNW 23 87498 G  
02/25-10 37 3 1 20 39 W 10 16 2 1 6196 WNW 24129248 V  
02/25-11 36 1 0 24 33 W 12 18 2 1 7940 WNW 25175208 E  
02/25-12 32 1 0 28 29 WNW 12 18 2 1 7092 W 24151819 E  
02/25-13 23 1 0 31 26 WNW 12 18 2 1 6244 W 24129549 V  
02/25-14 18 1 0 32 26 WNW 12 18 2 1 5397 W 23108399 V  
02/25-15 18 1 0 31 27 W 12 18 2 1 4310 W 22 83497 G  
02/25-16 19 1 0 29 29 W 10 16 2 1 3222 W 22 60141 G  
02/25-17 19 0 0 26 33 W 10 16 2 1 2135 W 21 38332 P  
02/25-18 17 0 0 23 38 W 10 16 3 1 1703 W 20 29641 P  
02/25-19 15 0 0 20 41 W 10 16 4 1 1270 W 20 21421 P  
02/25-20 14 0 0 17 46 WSW 10 16 4 1 838 WSW 18 13671 P  
02/25-21 12 0 0 15 48 WSW 10 16 4 1 840 WSW 20 13962 P  
02/25-22 10 0 0 14 50 WSW 10 16 5 1 843 WSW 20 14256 P  
02/25-23 8 0 0 14 48 WSW 10 16 5 1 845 WSW 20 14551 P  
02/26-00 8 0 0 14 48 WSW 10 16 4 1 876 WSW 22 16383 P  
02/26-01 7 0 0 14 48 WSW 12 18 4 1 906 WSW 23 18307 P  
02/26-02 7 0 0 14 48 WSW 12 18 4 1 937 WSW 25 20322 P  
02/26-03 8 0 0 13 50 WSW 12 18 3 1 963 WSW 24 20244 P  
02/26-04 9 0 0 13 48 WSW 12 18 3 1 990 WSW 23 20130 P  
02/26-05 9 0 0 14 46 WSW 12 18 3 1 1017 WSW 23 19980 P  
 
KEY:  
 
FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST  
VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/  
SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/  
PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/  
WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/  
AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/  
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/  
20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/  
GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/  
HI - HAINES INDEX  
LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL  
15KFT WIND - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/  
MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/  
TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/  
VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/  
AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING  
P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD  
V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT  
 

 
FORECASTER...GHANSON  
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG BROWN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1802246.3/BOU  
 
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