788  
FNUS75 KPUB 170125  
FWSPUB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH TROUT CREEK...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
725 PM MDT MON OCT 16 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2000 MDT ON OCTOBER 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION, BRINGING DRY AIR AND NW  
WINDS OVER THE SITE. TOMORROW WILL BE PARTICULARLY DRY, BUT THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS  
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOLLOWING A DIURNAL FLOW REGIME, WHEREAS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL  
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL FROM 1100 - 1700. AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE DEGRADES ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, BRINGING  
SMOKE DISPERSAL TO POOR AFTER 1300, OR SO. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10 TO  
15 PERCENT, AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TUESDAY.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........3-8 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY @ 4-8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100, THEN 6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 11 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700, THEN  
FAIR.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100, THEN 6500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR FROM 0000 UNTIL 1200, THEN POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...SKELLY  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS NACCARATO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1717237.2/PUB  
 
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