927  
FXUS63 KGLD 212341  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
541 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
REST OF TODAY: AT 18Z, SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED IN NORTHWEST  
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO, ON THE N/NW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER  
LEVEL LOW CENTERED INVOF THE CENTRAL KS/CO BORDER. EXPECT SHOWERS  
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST TOWARD LIBERAL AND WOODWARD. WITH AN  
ATYPICALLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, ANY DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER  
/INCREASE IN INSOLATION/ COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED  
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE  
RELATIVELY SMALL, HOWEVER, AS SUBSIDENCE /MID-LEVEL WARMING/ IN  
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPRESS  
DEVELOPMENT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  
 
TONIGHT: WITH A MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, A CLEARING TREND  
THIS EVENING, AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS /NO ADVECTION/, FOG  
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD  
DENSE FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. FREEZING FOG WOULD MOST  
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS 4000+ FT (ESSENTIALLY ALONG/WEST  
OF THE CO/KS BORDER) WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHALLOW AND  
RADIATIONAL COOLING STRONGER.  
 
SUNDAY: FOG AND STRATUS WOULD TYPICALLY LIFT/SCATTER WITHIN  
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, GIVEN WEAK  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW /LETHARGIC MIXING/, DISSIPATION MAY NOT OCCUR  
UNTIL LATE MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE  
UPPER LOW SUGGESTS SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE  
REGION WILL BE THE MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF AN H5/H7 RIDGE. MODELS  
START THIS SYSTEM BUILDING/AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY  
WITH A SLOW TRUDGE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THE  
RIDGE REMAINS AMPLIFIED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS IT WORKS OUT INTO  
THE PLAINS REGION BEFORE FLATTENING AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES  
INTO WEST COAST AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS UPPER RIDGE AFFECTS THE AREA...THE REGION WILL  
SEE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...  
REPLACING THE CURRENT EXITING SYSTEM...FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST...A SHORTWAVE WILL WORK DOWN THE  
EAST SIDE OF THE FLOW AND OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BASED ON  
TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MAIN P-TYPE WILL BE SHOWERS...BUT SOME  
COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A  
CHANGE OVER TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH NO EXPECTED ACCUM. ANOTHER  
WEAK BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF  
A SHOWER OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE  
UPCOMING WEEK.  
 
FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER  
60S AS RIDGE IN PLACE...TUESDAY-THURSDAY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW  
TO MID 50S TUESDAY INCREASING TO ONLY THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR  
WED/THURS. WITH THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE  
WEEK...TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY  
AND LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THE REGION WILL  
MAINLY SEE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
GLD WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND INTERMITTENTLY BECOME  
IFR TO LIFR BETWEEN 09-13Z AND THEN RETURN TO A PREVAILING MVFR  
AFTER 14Z. AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY,  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER 17Z.  
 
MCK WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL BECOME INTERMITTENTLY IFR  
BETWEEN 09-13Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND  
BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...JN  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
 
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