893  
FXUS63 KGLD 250443  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1043 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
 
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS ON  
RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTING DATA. CUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER YUMA COUNTY DEVELOPED ALONG ELEVATED CAPE AXIS NEAR ELEVATED  
BAROCLINIC ZONE. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE  
CWA, HOWEVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS MATCH HRRR/RAP AND THESE  
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION MOST PLACES, AND CHANCE AT  
AND DOWNSTREAM OF WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
 
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT PARTLY SUNNY  
SKIES REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH A SSE SURFACE WIND AND TEMPS RANGING  
NICELY...MAINLY IN THE 70S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. A MOISTURE AXIS  
ALLOWING THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...IS SOURCING FROM THE EASTERN  
ROCKIES AND WILL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HRS...  
RESULTING FROM SURFACE RIDGING EAST AND A BUILDING TROUGH IN THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS  
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AREA.  
 
GOING INTO TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR CLOUD COVER TO WANE FOR CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN ZONES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN ZONES DUE  
TO PROXIMITY TO LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER COLORADO.  
 
FOR SUNDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THE REGION AS TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE  
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST THRU THE DAY ALLOWING  
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE ROCKIES. THE  
MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN THE TWO REMAINS MOSTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO  
THRU THE DAY...WITH SOME BLEED OVER INTO WESTERN KANSAS THRU THE  
DAY. 500/700 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW DURING THIS TIME...  
AIDING IN MOISTURE SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.  
 
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WITH  
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHIFTING EAST. SOME RW/TRW POSSIBLE BUT BEST  
CHANCES LOOK FOR THE WESTERN CWA TO SEE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FOR  
EASTERN COLORADO.  
 
FOR TEMPS...COOL AIRMASS INFLUENCED FROM THE SURFACE  
RIDGE...CLEARING OVER THE AREA FOR MANY LOCALES TONIGHT WILL AFFORD  
THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE LOWER  
50S. DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BUT  
WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/THICKNESS OF CLOUDS FOR THE DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
 
H5 TROUGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST  
ON TUESDAY WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW  
MEXICO BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN SIMULTANEOUSLY. THE PATTERN WILL  
BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE  
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY  
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP  
DURING THIS TIME AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN  
STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH/TIMING  
OF BOTH FEATURES BUT ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL  
PATTERN.  
 
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY AND TRAVEL WITH THE FLOW PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY,  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH A FAVORABLE  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING TUESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 
SEVERE INDICES EACH DAY AS OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE:  
TUESDAY (CAPE 1500-2500 AND 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50 KNOTS)  
WEDNESDAY (CAPE 1700- 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR 45-55 KNOTS)  
THURSDAY (CAPE 2000-3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR 55-65 KNOTS)  
 
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FORCING WILL BE HIGHEST ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER,  
IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT, THE ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS WELL.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, REDUCING  
INSTABILITY A BIT BUT STILL ALLOWING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND  
KMCK TERMINALS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL  
BRING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LIGHT  
SHOWERS NEAR KMCK SHOULD END EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND VCSH WAS  
LIMITED TO THIS TAF. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR VIRGA MAY REDEVELOP  
TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR BOTH TERMINALS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND  
MENTION WAS LEFT OUT. BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WHEN  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS STILL TOO  
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING PREVAILING WINDS BELOW 10KT, AND  
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS  
TO SLIDE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 10-14KT  
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON (STRONGER WINDS AT  
KGLD).  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DR  
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...TL  
AVIATION...DR  
 
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