901  
FXUS63 KGLD 202331  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
531 PM MDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT: A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN IN EASTERN CO AS  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PAC NW PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG/EAST  
OF HWY 283 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS 10-12C H85  
DEWPOINTS ADVECT POLEWARD BENEATH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED  
LAYER (CHARACTERIZED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM) VIA  
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LEE  
CYCLONE IN WESTERN KS. GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE  
INHIBITION AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING PRIOR TO COLD FROPA  
~12Z SAT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,  
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH  
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION BY ~00Z, GFS  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW (1500-2000 FT) MIXED LAYER  
MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THE EML EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AROUND 03Z, WHEN  
LOW-LEVEL (1000 FT AGL) SOUTHERLY FLOW NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS TO  
~50 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, A SECOND MAXIMA IN WINDS/GUSTS MAY OCCUR  
EAST OF HWY 283 THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT, THOUGH THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH/EAST OF THE  
GLD CWA (E.G. DODGE CITY, HAYS, RUSSELL). EXPECT HIGHS THIS  
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE  
LOWER/MID 40S IN EASTERN CO (WHERE THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR PRIOR  
TO 12Z) TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE FAR EAST WHERE  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY: EXPECT SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
~45 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT (FROPA  
BETWEEN 12-15Z FROM N/NW TO S/SE) IN ASSOCIATION WITH 6-7 MB/3-HR  
PRESSURE RISES WITH COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING, STRONGEST IN  
SOUTHWEST NE, NORTHEAST CO, AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS. EXPECT WINDS  
TO DECREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ~30 MPH BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON (~18Z), 10-15 MPH BY ~21Z, AND LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM BY  
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES 15-20F COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, RANGING FROM THE  
UPPER 50S IN EASTERN CO TO MID 60S FAR S/SE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD  
FRONT SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY  
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD  
COVER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S SITUATION IS SET UP  
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN SUPERBLEND MODEL. WILL  
UNDERCUT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES AND SHOOT FOR LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO  
MID 30S. FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE  
ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS  
INTO THE AREA WITH A GENERALLY SUNNY SKY AND PERHAPS BREEZY  
SOUTHWEST WIND DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SFC WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UNDER  
WHAT SHOULD BE A CLEAR SKY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULDNT BE AS COLD  
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 
MONDAY...GFS SLOWER IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH  
NAM/SREF/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY WONT  
CHANGE ADVERTISED FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. COULD  
SEE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOTHING SERIOUS.  
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.  
 
TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE  
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE DAY AS WE REMAIN IN A TIGHT  
GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN 590DM HIGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEEP LOW  
PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. TODAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO  
ADVERTISE A RANGE OF 5C (EAST) TO 11C (WEST) RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, IN LINE WITH MEX GUIDANCE. LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 
WEDNESDAY...AM EXPECTING EXTENSIVE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH A  
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD  
FRONT. 850MB TEMPERATURES AND MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT  
LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (AS ADVERTISED) WHICH IS IN LINE WITH  
GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES. ECMWF 850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER  
SUPPORTING POSSIBLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THEN ADVERTISED. LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.  
 
THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. NICE AXIS OF 850-500MB MOISTURE ORIENTED  
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE TO  
LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF  
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM MOVES RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE  
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE  
DISSIPATES LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. STILL LOOKING FOR BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY  
NORTH WINDS GIVEN 9-13MB 6 HOUR PRESSURE INCREASE AND 850MB WINDS TO  
35KTS OR SO. NUDGED UP WINDS A FEW KTS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS CONSMOS  
GUIDANCE. GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN FRONTS ARRIVAL AS WELL AS PRECIP  
PLACEMENT WONT MESS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH RIGHT NOW  
HAS MID 50S TO MID 60S. MEX GUIDANCE MUCH COLDER WITH LOW 40S TO  
AROUND 50. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR NOW.  
 
FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT  
MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNRISE  
SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WHILE  
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY. DAYTIME GUSTS AT BOTH  
TERMINALS WILL BE AT LEAST 30KT, AND MAY GUST TO 40KT AT TIMES.  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
 
NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN EASTERN CO DURING THE DAY SAT AS DEWPOINTS  
FALL INTO THE TEENS WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 50S.  
MINIMUM RHS OF 20-25% ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE  
DAY. RHS AS LOW AS 15% WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN NNW  
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. WITH A TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN  
THE LOWEST RHS AND STRONGEST WINDS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR  
OR TWO.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...DR  
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT  
 
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