394
FXUS63 KGLD 232349
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009
DISCUSSION
245 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 4PM MST.
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HOW MUCH SNOW AND WIND IT WILL BRING TO THE
TRI-STATE REGION. CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
BE ON TEMPERATURES AS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN HOUR TO
TWO MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS WELL
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT...COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS
PRODUCING MAINLY SNOW INSTEAD OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE
FASTER MOTION IS ALSO MOVING THE AREA OF BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA MORE QUICKLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME OF BEST
SNOWFALL. THE SNOW HAS ALREADY ENDED ACROSS VIRTUALLY OF OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES AND A
WARMING OF TEMPERATURE DUE IN PART TO THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
ALSO SOMEWHAT TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THIS HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION BACK TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE OPEN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE VORTICITY MAXES
IN THE UPPER FLOW ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. ONCE THE VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE EAST OF THE LOW...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS MEANS AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIMITED TO 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GROUND OF LESS THAN 3 INCHES DUE TO WARM
SOIL TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS...NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LARGER
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS
ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF FEATURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...HAVE
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.
LOCKHART
AVIATION
449 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...AT KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY HOLD ON FOR ONLY ABOUT ONE MORE HOUR OR LESS AS
SNOWFALL SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF KGLD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO KGLD BY 01Z. FOR KMCK...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL INTERMITTENTLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
NOW AND 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN TO KMCK BY 08Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KTS BY 22Z.
BLM
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
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