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FXUS63 KGLD 201137  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
537 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN  
OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COUNTIES INTO YUMA COUNTY COLORADO  
AROUND NOON WITH A SUBTLE WIND CONVERGENCE AREA EXPECTED. THIS  
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON  
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH BY DAYS END. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE  
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DID RATHER WELL  
YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WILL USE AGAIN TODAY.  
AIM SHOOTING FOR READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS FAR  
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 90S UP TO 102 ACROSS THE REPUBLICAN  
RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES OF  
KANSAS.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING. WILL  
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT WHICH BY MIDNIGHT IS FLIRTING WITH OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.  
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT THE STRATUS WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EXTEND  
FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND KIT CARSON COLORADO BY SUNRISE  
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW  
60S TO AROUND 70.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER  
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS  
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY  
EAST. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME STRATUS FROM ROUGHLY KIT CARSON  
COLORADO TO GOODLAND AND MCCOOK IN THE MORNING (THICKEST EARLIER IN  
THE MORNING) WHICH COULD IMPACT ECLIPSE VIEWING. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD  
SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.  
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE PER BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY  
AND VISIBILITY FORECASTS TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE  
MID 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF SOME  
POSSIBLE MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY  
SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE  
FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABUNDANT  
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THURSDAY EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL  
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS  
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC DRIER SOLUTION. STILL EXPECT  
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NW TO ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO EARLY MODEL  
RUNS LAST WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL COME SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS  
TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
 
FOR KGLD AND KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
WILL SEE TURNING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING, BUT SHOULD  
STAY BELOW 12KT. MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND  
SUNSET NEAR KMCK, BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE  
MENTION OF VCTS SO IT WAS OMITTED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,  
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRESENT NORTH OF KMCK. THIS WILL NEED TO  
BE MONITORED ON FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT  
WARRANTS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...SME  
AVIATION...SME  
 
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