935
FXUS63 KGLD 092121
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
220 PM MST MON NOV 9 2009
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
AXIS WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST
EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH HAS SET OFF A FEW STORMS ALREADY...SO MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE IF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL IN THE EVENING. H7-H3
DIV Q FIELDS SEEM TO MATCH UP WELL WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY AND
INDICATE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z...WHICH LINES
UP WELL WITH TIMING FROM RADAR LOOPS. OTHERWISE REST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG ALONG BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH CWA GENERALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
LARGE H5 RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY
ALOFT...APPEARS FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DECK DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL LIFT UNDER STABLE MID LEVEL LAYER. WHILE THERE IS SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW SATURATED THE NEAR SFC LEVELS WILL GET...LOOKS
LIKE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THINK ANY STRATUS WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT WILL HOLD UP OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY KIND OF AIRMASS CHANGE
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IT COULD LINGER AROUND FOR SOME
TIME...IMPACTING TEMPS. SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER SO CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PROLONGED STRATUS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT
WITH H7 THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE AIRMASS WILL BE TO STABLE
AND DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE SFC FRONT. WITH
STRATUS DECK SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...WILL LIKELY
SEE A RATHER SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
THINK MCK WILL BE COOLEST SPOT AS THEY SHOULD SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD
UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK.
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
DATA OFF OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...AND CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. FOR
NOW THINK KEEPING FORECAST CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BE
BEST MOVE...AS TRYING TO DEPICT ANY SPECIFIC DETAIL DURING THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WITH
OPERATIONAL MODELS APPARENTLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH
OTHER AND LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...PINPOINTING ANY ONE
PERIOD AS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE OTHER IS DIFFICULT. BASED
ON MEAN DATA...THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND SLOW
ECMWF IS BEST IDEA AT THIS TIME. 12Z GFS HAS TAKEN A RADICAL
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WHILE THERE ARE A FEW INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A SOLUTION LIKE
THIS...CONFIDENCE FAR TOO LOW TO COMPLETELY GO WITH THIS SOLUTION.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CUT BACK TEMPS A
BIT...BUT WILL WEIGHT FOR SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING A RADICAL FORECAST DEPARTURE.
JRM
AVIATION
1104 AM MST MON NOV 9 2009
18Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES (IFR-MVFR) WILL EXIST AT KGLD AFTER 07-09Z WITH POSSIBLE
CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2500 FT RANGE.
26
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page