566  
FXUS63 KGLD 161759  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1159 AM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH EAST TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOME  
MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WIND SHIFT LINE FROM ABOUT HILL  
CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE SHOULD SEE  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BASED  
ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS  
FROM THE NAM AND HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR THAT FOG AND POSSIBLY LOWS  
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT  
SO HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST.  
 
FRIDAY...MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORNING FOG ACROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE  
POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY NOON ALONG/WEST OF  
THE CO/KS BORDER AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF KIT CARSON AND  
CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE ABOVE  
MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST PROVIDING FOR SLIGHT CHANCE  
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD  
OF A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA  
FROM COLORADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GREAT UPPER LEVEL JET  
SUPPORT AS WELL LENDING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A NARROW STRIP OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO SUPPORTING  
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE THREAT FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE  
NIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER-  
LEVEL FLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO STICK AROUND IN SOME FORM INTO THE  
DAY ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST  
OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS QUIET DOWN  
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL  
BRING COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION, MAKING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES  
GENERALLY UNDER 20%. DESPITE THIS BRIEF DRIER AIR, IT IS NOT  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.  
 
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL  
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE AT THE SAME  
TIME AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL  
CANADA. BY WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER-  
LEVEL FLOW AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL  
ALSO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE ALSO  
STRENGTHENING WEDNESDAY, MEANING THAT WARM, MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED TO  
RETURN TO THE AREA. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
TO 20-30%.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S SUNDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. DURING  
THIS SAME TIME PERIOD, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 50S  
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE LOW 60S BY  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
CONDITIONS AT GLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A  
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN  
10Z-13Z. CURRENTLY HAVE 3SM BR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, BUT  
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME LOWER MAINLY DUE TO A DECREASE IN  
VISIBILITY AND SOME LOWER CEILINGS.  
 
MCK WILL START OUT MVFR DUE TO A LOWER CEILING WITH CONDITIONS  
VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BETWEEN 20Z-23Z AS THE REMAINING LOW  
CLOUDS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR  
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL AND  
APPROACH SATURATION AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH AREAS OF FOG  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. VISIBILITIES IN THE TAF ARE  
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AS 3SM DURING THAT TIME, BUT THERE IS A  
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY VISIBILITIES COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1/2SM  
FOR A BRIEF TIME. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN VISIBILITY VALUES  
DROPPING THAT LOW, BUT IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILL BE  
EVALUATED FURTHER THROUGH THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...PATTON  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
 
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