375
FXUS63 KGLD 032004
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2008
DISCUSSION
MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL WITH IT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
STARTING TO ERODE FROM WESTERN KANSAS/FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70'S/LOWER 80'S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT IS
QUITE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH MEANS IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST THIS EVENING IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE BEFORE THEY REACH THE EASTERN COLORADO. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT TOO MUCH FURTHER EAST SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTH/WESTERN MOST COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID
90'S AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. CURRENTLY MODELS
ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION OVERHEAD-HOWEVER AM HAVING DIFFICULTIES
FINDING ANY SUBSTANTIAL LIFTING MECHANISMS TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE GFS SHOWS
SOME WEAK PVA AND BREAKS OUT SOME PRECIPITATION. BY 03Z CINH
INCREASES AND ENDS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 35C. TRANSLATING THIS TO THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 100'S. ALSO AT THIS TIME...H5 RIDGE IN PLACE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES OVER THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE HIGH
BASED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO TRANSLATING EAST BY MID
WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SOME MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BURTIS
AVIATION
1042 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2008
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW WITH WINDS REMAINING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST...TURNING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KMCK.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A BROKEN LAYER OF LOWER CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT KGLD THROUGH 21Z BEFORE TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ENOUGH TO
DISSIPATE IT INTO A HIGHER SCATTERED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING.
LOCKHART
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
WFO GOODLAND
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