710  
FXUS63 KGLD 222347  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
547 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS (HIGHEST  
FROM BURLINGTON TO GOODLAND) EXPECTED TONIGHT ALLOWING INCREASING  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. THE INCREASE IN  
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A LOW OVERCAST SKY AND PERHAPS  
SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO  
MID 40S.  
 
FOR FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN UTAH BY  
NOON THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY  
WITHIN THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. AT THE SFC  
THE LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH  
ABOUT NOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY. BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS HANG ON ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH A GENERALLY  
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN  
IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR  
EAST BY NOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS  
FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER AFTER ABOUT 2 OR 3PM  
POSSIBLY GENERATING ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR  
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ELSEWHERE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION WITH STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGH IMPACT WEATHER  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
THURSDAY EVENING: THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG/EAST  
OF DRY LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40-55KT RANGE POSSIBLE. DISCOUNTING GFS WHICH  
APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED DEWPOINT TOO FAR EAST, NAM AND ECMWF SHOW AT  
LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THIS COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL  
DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS  
POSSIBLY MERGING INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF  
LARGE UPPER LOW. TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED TO EARLY EVENING  
PERIOD BEFORE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AS LLJ INCREASES.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
REGARDING PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS: OCCLUSION ROTATES OVER OUR  
CWA WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SETTLING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE  
COVERAGE OR RAIN INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  
LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS GFS/ECWMF POSITION FOR UPPER LOW  
WHICH KEEPS THIS MAIN PRECIP AREA IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR EAST  
A DRY SLOT IS SHOWN TO ROTATE NORTHWEST AND COULD LIMIT COVERAGE  
AND AMOUNTS. WHILE CAPE DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY, MID LEVEL THETA  
E LAPSE RATES REMAIN NEGATIVE AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SB CAPE MAY RELOAD IF  
STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP (WHICH ECMWF/GFS KEEP STRATUS CLEAR IN  
OUR EAST). THIS COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING  
AND FILLING IN OUR EAST.  
 
REGARDING WINDS FRIDAY: STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP AND BOTH NAM AND  
GFS SHOW BL WINDS AT LEAST NEAR 40KT (ALONG WITH STATISTICAL  
GUIDANCE) BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IN OUR WEST. GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY  
HIGHER WITH BL WINDS 50 KT. EVEN ASSUMING MIXING IS LIMITED WE  
MAY SEE HWW CONDITIONS. BETTER MIXING AND THE STRONGER GFS  
SOLUTION MAY PLACE THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. I'M HOLDING OFF  
ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW AS NAM MAY NOT BE AS CERTAIN. THIS  
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.  
 
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY: MODELS SHOW MAX TW  
IN THE LOWEST 3M AROUND 3C (OR LOWER) WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND  
SETS UP, AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OR TRANSITION TO SNOW  
ACROSS OUR WEST AND WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP OCCURS  
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 27 WE COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS. IF SNOW OCCURS AND RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THIS  
COULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE  
TRANSITION, AND DUE TO THE WET NATURE OF ANY SNOW IT WILL TAKE  
HIGHER RATES TO ACHIEVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THERE IS TIME TO  
FINE TUNE BASED ON CHANGING TRENDS, SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS  
THE PLAINS, WITH A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS DEVELOP AND TRACKING NEAR  
OR SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RETURNING  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE TO THE  
PROJECTED TRACKS BETTER AMOUNTS/COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SOUTH, BUT  
THESE PERIODS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION TO  
OCCUR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
SEVERAL AVIATION HAZARDS TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. FIRST,  
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT BOTH SITES. KGLD MAY NOT REACH  
CRITERIA AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY. SECOND, SOUTHERLY  
FLOW WILL BRING BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THUS, AM  
EXPECTING FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERN EDGE IS HARD TO  
GAUGE AS THERE IS VARIABILITY AMONG THE SOLUTIONS. FORECAST MVFR  
CONDITIONS AT KGLD BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. COULD GO  
EITHER WAY. KMCK IS LIKELY TO OBSERVE FOG/STRATUS AND HAVE INPUT  
LIFR CONDITIONS. FINAL THREAT IS THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHERE EXACTLY STORMS  
DEVELOP SO DIDN'T INCLUDED THUNDER FOR KGLD TAF. KMCK IS MORE  
LIKELY TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ONLY AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE THURSDAY FOR  
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. STRONG SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE  
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT THE  
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS THURSDAY MARCH 23:  
 
GOODLAND..........81 DEGREES IN 1967 AND PREVIOUS YEARS  
BURLINGTON........81 DEGREES IN 1910  
TRIBUNE...........82 DEGREES IN 1967  
YUMA..............81 DEGREES IN 1967  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/  
THURSDAY FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.  
 
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ252>254.  
 
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ079.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...DR  
AVIATION...RRH  
FIRE WEATHER...99  
CLIMATE...99  
 
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