076  
FXUS63 KGLD 301125  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
525 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
MID-UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH PLUME OF  
DEEP MOIST FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTEND. SYSTEM IS  
ORGANIZING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN AREAS  
OF HIGHER DBZ RETURNS ON RADAR. LIGHTER SNOW IS STRUGGLING TO  
ACCUMULATE DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPS.  
 
REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS: WARM GROUND TEMPS AND LOWER SLR WILL PLAY A  
ROLE IN LIMITING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. AT THE SAME TIME ALL GUIDANCE IS  
STILL SHOWING TROWAL/DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST  
CWA AND THERE IS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS  
BAND FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST (LIGHTING ALREADY OBSERVED AT HAYS AND  
BY ENTLN/NLDN). THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES  
WITHIN THIS BAND (IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR) WILL BE POSSIBLE AND  
THIS SHOULD EASILY OVERCOME THESE LIMITATIONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE  
A HARD CUTOFF BETWEEN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AND ALMOST NO  
ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE GROUND TEMP FACTOR AND NARROWER AXIS OF MORE  
INTENSE SNOW THAT MAY DEVELOP. A MAJOR QUESTION WILL BE RAIN/SNOW  
LINE WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AS AT TIME RAIN IS BEING  
REPORTED WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS 34F. WET BULB PROFILES DO COOL WITH  
MAX TW THROUGH 0-6KM LAYER NEAR 0C BY 12Z ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA.  
 
TREND IN GUIDANCE FAVORS LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 27  
THROUGH OUR EAST AND HAVE TRENDED DOWN ACROSS OUR WEST AND  
NORTHWEST. PEAK OF THE EVENT APPEARS TO BE FROM NOW (ROUGHLY 09Z)  
THROUGH 18Z, THOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS THIS BAND MAY LINGER IN  
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS OCCLUSION  
STRETCHES AND H5/H7 LOW SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL  
SEE AN AXIS OF AROUND 10" (ASSUMING MAINLY SNOW WITHIN BAND). MODELS  
ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH QPF ALONG THE MAIN BAND AND IF THIS VERIFIES  
AND FALLS AS SNOW WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE  
ONGOING FORECAST CALLS FOR. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE CONSIDERING  
ALL FACTORS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
REGARDING WIND/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING FAVORABLE  
AXIS OF STRONG WINDS IN BETWEEN HWY 27/HWY 25. GFS IS HIGHEST WITH  
BL WINDS IN THE 50-53KT RANGE WHICH MAY BE HIGH (BASED ON VAD  
WINDS), BUT EVEN NAM WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLE GUSTS AROUND WARNING  
CRITERIA. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH SNOW SHOULD  
RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS  
WILL LIKELY BE WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURS, AND CONFIDENCE  
IS LOWER THAT WE SEE THIS IN EASTERN COLORADO (THOUGH I ALSO CAN'T  
RULE THIS OUT).  
 
MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN  
EASTERN COLORADO. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO HAZARDS AS  
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW REAL  
WORLD OBS/TRENDS MATCH WITH ONGOING FORECAST AMOUNTS/VISIBILITIES.  
 
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY  
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT FORCING AND LIMITING MOISTURE  
ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WHEN MAIN  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.  
MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE. AIR MASS MODERATES THROUGH THESE  
PERIODS, HOWEVER ANY DEEPER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY THROW OFF  
TEMP FORECAST. POTENTIAL IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S (MAYBE NEAR 70),  
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ACROSS OUR NW KS AND SW NE COUNTIES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A  
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRANSVERSES THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING HUGE  
AMOUNTS OF QPF. COULD SEE AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH IN OUR EASTERN  
COUNTIES.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEATHER HERE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ABOVE  
NORMAL, PEAKING ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
STRONG WINDS, SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT  
TIMES AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH IFR/MVFR THIS  
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS EVENING AT KGLD THEN KMCK AS THE SYSTEM  
MOVES EAST.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR  
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR  
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.  
 
CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ091-092.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090.  
 
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR  
NEZ079>081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DR  
LONG TERM...SME  
AVIATION...DR  
 
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