780
FXUS65 KBOU 202136
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORT TERM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEXT SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING ONTO
THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MILD
NIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH BETTER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW TODAYS HIGHS. ENOUGH COLD AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION NOTED LATE IN THE DAY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW AROUND
RABBIT EARS PASS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE CONTAINED IN THIS
SYSTEM...ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWERING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AS A SECOND EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM RACES OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF A +140KT PACIFIC JET. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING ON THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. IT SEEMS AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND MORE
CONFIDENCE IS BEING PLACED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH PULLS THE LOW
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD THIS WHICH
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS. WINDS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW WILL SPREAD ONTO THE
PLAINS IN THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW OCCURRING ON
MONDAY. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...COULD SEE VERY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND FOOTHILLS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER KANSAS. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS WITH WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
REVISITING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE. A THIRD
SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE EC IS NOW PUSHING THIS FURTHER EAST.
AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO KEEP REVIEWING THE SOLUTIONS RUN TO RUN. ALL
MODELS ARE POINTING TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS AND SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BARJENBRUCH/KRIEDERMAN
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