674
FXUS65 KBOU 072205
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM
WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BANDED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS. NAM SEEMS TO
UNDERDO THE HIGHER MOISTURE...BUT IS TOO MOIST AT THE SURFACE.
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY LOW...MAINLY NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE MOISTURE...SO LOWERED OR
DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE. COMBINATION OF A BIT MORE COOLING ALOFT AND
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BOTH MDLS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS40
REMAINS THE WETTER MDLS VS THE NAM12. THE MDLS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
PASSING ACRS NRN CO IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME...DIMINISHING QG ASCENT
THEN OCCURS ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT THAT TIME WITH JUST SLGT CHC POPS
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SUBSIDENT AMS WILL BE AN PLACE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH PLENTY OF INCONSISTENCIES STILL
PRESENT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SWLY FLOW OVR CO. THE NEXT TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MSTR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN THE MTNS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW THEN. THE TROF SPLITS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF MOVING INTO CO ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR FRIDAY. OTHER RUNS CLOSE THE TROF OVER CA FRIDAY...LIKE YDA/S
RUN DID...WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN AN OPEN WAVE AND SWING IT ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BE ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT HOLD OFF ADDING ADDITIONAL POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...BUT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CMG/FMC
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