270
FXUS65 KBOU 082125
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
320 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2008
SHORT TERM
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SET OFF A ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND MIGHT CYCLE THROUGH ONCE OR TWICE MORE BEFORE
EVENING COOLING TURNS OFF THE CONVECTION. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT BEING
UNABLE TO MOVE THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MORE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AT 700
MB SHOW A LITTLE WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY CAP THE CONVECTION. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO STILL BE IN
PLACE TO INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...THE STALLED FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
FROM ADVECTING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
LONG TERM
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY FOR BOTH DAYS. SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO FORM WITH MODELS SHOWING LI'S AROUND ZERO
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL
BELOW A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...THUS WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE DON'T EXPECT ANY STORM DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. FRIDAY WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. WON'T SEE A BIG DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
SATURDAY FOR THE LAGGING COOLER AIR TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. THIS
MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY OVER THE DENVER METRO
AREA AND KDEN SHOULD BE COME TO AN END BY 01Z. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AFTER
01Z WITH WINDS RETURNING TO DIURNAL PATTERNS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KDRBY/MEIER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page