874
FXUS65 KBOU 091115
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
410 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LITTLE BIT OF STRATUS
IS LINGERING AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST AREA HAS CLEARED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE DRY AIR NOW IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE STATE...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AFTER STRATUS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS DISSIPATES. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA BUILDING OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY. STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
THE AIRMASS TO BEGIN MODERATEING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCEPTED
THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE FREEZING POINT.
LONG TERM
A FLAT UPPER LEVELL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WED
WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN
THE MTNS SO WILL ONLY MENTION WDLY SCT -SHSN. OVER THE PLAINS IT
WILL BE DRY WITH SOME MODERATION IN HIGHS BY AS 850 TEMPS RISE FROM
5 TO 6 DEGREES C. FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS STILL
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6
C/KM RANGE HOWEVER WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD SEE SOME SCT
-SHSN IN THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND AS HIGHS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS WILL BE
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STABLE SO ANY SNOW SHOULD
REMAION ON THE LIGHT SIDE. OVER NERN CO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BASED ON LATEST
850-700 MB TEMPS. BY SAT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS ALONG WITH IMPROVING LAPSE RATES. THUS MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF
OROGPRAHICS SNOWS. OVER NERN CO A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO AFFECT THE
AREA BY SAT AFT OR EVENING ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBE. THUS COULD SEE A CHANCE
OF SOME LIGHT PCPN MAINLY SAT NIGHT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER RIGHT.
HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE NR SEASONAL NORMALS BEFORE FNTL
PASSAGE.
FOR SUN NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A DECREASE IN
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH. OVER NERN CO
LATEST GFS SHOWS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH NR THE FOOTHILLS AS FNTL BNDRY
REMAINS OVER THE NERN PLAINS AS SFC HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS. IN ADDITION CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER NERN CO AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS IN NNW
FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PCPN. CURRENT GRIDS MAY
BE TOO WARM IF LATEST GFS IS CORRECT HOWEVER THIS IS IN DAY 6 SO
WILL NEXT SHIFT MAY CHANGES IF NEEDED. BY MON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME STRATUS LINGERING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 16Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KDRBY/RPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page