581  
FXUS65 KBOU 290208  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
808 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUE TO DVLP ON THE BACK SIDE OF  
THE UPPER LVL JET IN NW FLOW ALOFT FM WY INTO NRN CO. APPEARS THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND IT MAY ACTUALLY  
LINGER THRU 3 AM OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS  
COLORADO AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WOMING AND MONTANA  
WILL FEED COOL NORTHERLY WINDS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THAT KEEPS  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK, SIMILAR TO THIS  
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR AS DIURNAL  
SHOWERS LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND DISSIPATE.  
 
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE REGION  
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS.  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER  
THE MOUNTAINS AN FOOTHILLS AND THEN DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE, SO STRONG STORMS ARE  
NOT ANTICIPATED. BRIEF RAINS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS MAY ALSO  
KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO COOL FOR THE AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE, IN  
WHICH THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON WOULD REMAIN A DRY ONE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. BY 00Z THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE  
CENTERED OVER WESTERN COLORADO, EASTERN UTAH, AND WESTERN WYOMING.  
ONLY A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS  
ENDS UP. AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY PLAINS. FARTHER EAST, ISOLATED  
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. FOR TUESDAY, MODELS CONTINUA TO SHOW ENOUGH  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE NEAR BY PLAINS. FAR  
NORTHEAST COLORADO STILL APPEARS TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTION.  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NEARS. THERE  
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTION WILL  
OCCUR. WARMING MID LEVELS MAY HELP CAP CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL COLORADO. THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION OVER  
THE PLAINS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION VERSUS THE GFS WHICH  
SHOWS THE BEST CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WILL SIDE WITH THE  
ECMWF AND THE GEM WHICH SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
THURSDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. THIS TEMPORALLY FLATTENS THE RIDGE  
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN  
THIS TIME FRAME WILL THURSDAY WHEN THE RIDGE FLATTENS. FOR FRIDAY  
AND NEXT WEEKEND, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
DECREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MID LEVEL WARMING  
UNDER THE RIDGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
ONE WEAK BNDRY WAS MOVING ACROSS DIA AT 02Z AND ANOTHER STRONGER  
FEATURE OVER ECNTRL WY MAY AFFECT THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.  
MEANWHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THRU 06Z  
HOWEVER CEILINGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY AOA 7000 FT.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RPK  
SHORT TERM...DANKERS  
LONG TERM...MEIER  
AVIATION...RPK  
 
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