094
FXUS65 KGJT 240512
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1112 PM MDT TUE APR 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE APR 23 2024
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA, ALONG WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN RIO BLANCO AND MOFFAT
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A GENEROUS CUMULUS FIELD HAS
SPROUTED OVER THE REGION IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
DEPICTED ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH MORE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING WAVE COMING ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS WARM SPELL WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN SOME LOCALES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK MOISTURE
SUPPLY WILL KEEP MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND LIKELY
JUST PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS UNDER VIRGA SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL, ONCE AGAIN, REMAIN WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING,
AVERAGING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE FUELS
REMAIN SUB-CRITICAL, BUT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE APR 23 2024
EARLY ON THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. THAT TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY WILL BE
WINDY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL ONLY EXAGGERATE THE WINDS. THAT SYSTEM EXPERIENCES
LEE SIDE STRENGTHENING, WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY GET SCOURED OUT SO THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS ALSO SETS UP THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO TRACK OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEREFORE EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ON SUNDAY THE
LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT THROUGH THE BASE AND LIFTS OUT OVER THE
PLAINS. WINDS RELAX AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL CUT TEMPERATURES DOWN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SNOW
LEVELS IN THIS ACTIVE PERIOD HOVER AROUND 7-8 KFT, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT IMPACTS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND HIGHER PEAKS. AS FAR AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY HAS REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK, STRENGTH AND TIMING. CONFIDENCE WAINS A TOUCH WITH THE
SECOND SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE DIFFERENCE ARE SUBTLE. EXPECT MINOR
TWEAKS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH MAY RESULT CERTAIN AREAS HAVING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OTHERS. AS OF NOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF LIQUID ARE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS AS
YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE APR 23 2024
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT BEFORE AFTERNOON
BREEZES AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH RANGE. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATED
WITH MORE REFORMING UP NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OF IMPACTS AT TAF SITES ATTM SO NOT MENTIONED IN
FORECAST.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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