725  
FXUS65 KGJT 300939  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
339 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING  
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN  
KANSAS. OUR FORECAST AREA NOW STUCK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL  
AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH ONLY A FEW OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN  
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SAN JUANS. SOME LOWER STRATUS  
STUCK IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS, BUT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW  
SOME EROSION ALONG THE EDGES AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKY COVER GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE  
SHORT-LIVED AS WE SEE FLOW ALOFT SWING BACK AROUND TO THE  
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES TO  
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING  
THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH  
THAT WE SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUANS ON  
MONDAY, BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS. QPF VALUES MODEST AT BEST, BUT SHOULD YIELD AROUND 1  
TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE FAVORED WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING  
SLOPES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING, EXPECT A GRADUAL  
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SOLID 4 TO 8  
DEGREES OF WARMING WILL OCCUR AT MOST SITES TODAY WITH ANOTHER 4  
TO 8 DEGREES ADDED ON FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND AFTERNOON TEMPS  
BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THREAT OF  
FREEZING TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS DIMINISHED FOR A IMMEDIATE  
FUTURE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY EVENING WITH DRIER WEATHER MOVING BACK  
IN OVERNIGHT AS WE AWAIT YET ANOTHER, STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE  
ARRIVING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM PACKING A LITTLE BETTER  
MOISTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN HIGHLIGHTS,  
BUT TEMPS NOT SLIPPING A TON, SO MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AT PASS  
LEVELS. THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
REGAINING CONTROL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SENDS  
TEMPERATURES SOARING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK  
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR. NO  
WORRIES THOUGH, THE WINDS RETURN BY SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW  
STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT MAY START  
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
BKN TO OVC ILS CIGS WILL CONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF  
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE CIGS SCATTER OUT  
ALLOWING A RETURN OF VFR CONDS TO ALL SITES BY 18Z. THE IMPROVE  
CONDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE  
WORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES (ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70) AFTER  
00Z/MON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN BY 06Z TONIGHT. THIS  
WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS BY MIDNIGHT WITH ILS CONDS RETURNING TO  
KEGE, KASE AND KTEX BY MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED  
AT TIMES UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-011.  
 
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JDC  
LONG TERM...07  
AVIATION...JDC  
 
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