731
FXUS65 KGJT 071006
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BROAD CYCLONIC AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF W-NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NE UT LATE
TODAY AND MOVE SE ACROSS WESTERN CO TONIGHT. 700 MB FRONT STALLS OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...WHERE ITS
REMNANTS THEN LINGER THROUGH SUN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED NORTH OF HWY 50 TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT WHEN WHEN THE
300 MB TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE AREA. MILD TEMPS AGAIN TODAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH DROPPING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS FROM
FRI. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE SUNDAY TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. GFS/NAM/EC
AGREE WITH THIS PROJECTION SO HAVE PLACED THE PRECIPITATION EMPHASIS
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE CO MTS EAST OF CRAIG...RIFLE...MONTROSE...AND
DURANGO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...SO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
A ODDS IN TIMING THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES A MODERATE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH GREAT BASIN TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO WESTERN CO WED NIGHT AND THUR. THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WED AND THU AND DOES NOT BRING IT
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO UNTIL THU AND FRI. AT THIS POINT IT
A BIT TOUGH TO DETERMINE WHICH MODEL'S TIMING IS BEST. HAVE KEPT THE
MID TO LATE WEEK GRIDS UNCHANGED WITH MID-RANGE PRECIP CHANCE WED
THRU FRI.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH APPEARS IN THE LATE PERIODS...SO HAVE LEFT
MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GRIDS WITH DECREASING TEMPS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. CIGS LOWERING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. AREAS
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AFTER 05Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM.....JAD
LONG TERM......CJC
AVIATION.......JAD
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