799
FXUS65 KGJT 202111
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
211 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CWA THIS AFTN AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING ASHORE OVER
PAC NW THIS AFTN...AND ASSOCD SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TOMORROW...SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOME SO CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER HIGHER...OPEN TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR DISTURBANCE...
ESPECIALLY JET STREAM...WILL MOVE FURTHER N SATURDAY LEAVING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR UT/CO TO CONTEND WITH. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD OVER SRN AREAS.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...LOWERED POP/QPF QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY THRU
ENTIRE SHORT TERM WHILE KEEPING IN SCHC PRECIP SAT NIGHT FOR NERN
UT/NWRN CO...WITH SCHC FOR CEN/NRN MTNS. THE OCCNL STRAY SHOWER OR
FLURRY STILL POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WARRANTING SLIGHT
MENTION. FOR LATE SUN MORNING ONWARDS...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP AS WEAK FLAT RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA.
TEMPS THRU SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DAYTIME TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS CLOUDS
INHIBIT MUCH OF A WARM UP...THOUGH NIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALSO BECAUSE OF INCD CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NE UT AND NW CO.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY EVE AND PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MON MORNING. FRONTAL LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOLLOWED BY NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AREAS OF SNOW
FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LIMITING
FACTOR IS AGAIN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE UT AND SW CO WHERE
THE LEAST CHANCE EXISTS...SO HESITANT TO GET TOO BULLISH WITH POPS AT
THIS TIME. RAPID WARMING ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CAUSE PRECIP
TO END QUICKLY SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DIVIDE.
NW FLOW THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
PERIODICALLY BRUSH THE AREA BUT WITH MOISTURE LACKING...DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TUE-FRI. COOLER TEMPS TUE ON A WARMING
TREND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER NE UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM.....TGR
LONG TERM......JAD
AVIATION.......TGJT
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