826  
FXUS65 KGJT 222225  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
425 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 423 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
A STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON  
PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND  
OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS  
SHOWING PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER UTAH WITH NUMEROUS  
LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR SALT LAKE CITY.  
 
THE 1800Z GFS20 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS  
STORM SYSTEM AND SLIDE IT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT, MAINTAINING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.  
AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WE CAN EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE BUOYANT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH  
ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND  
GREATER SNOWFALL RATES ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL  
START OUT UPWARDS OF 9500 TO 10000 FEET THEY WILL SLOWLY DROP TO  
BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED NUMEROUS WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORIES WHICH BEGIN TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
PLEASE SEE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DENWSWGJT OR CHECK IT OUT  
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 424 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM  
EXITS TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 1800Z GFS AND 1200Z ECMWF SHOW A RIDGE  
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY, PROVIDING US WITH A DRY WEATHER DAY.  
HOWEVER, WE ARE HEADED INTO A PROGRESSIVE/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.  
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PASS OVER UTAH AND  
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY  
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WITH A QUICK RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
MODEL CONTINUITY BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE  
FORECASTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MORE OR LESS STALL OUT OVER  
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL  
BE REACHED INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION  
LOWERS CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FIRST  
REACH VERNAL THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AT KVEL AND  
KTEX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, RESPECTIVELY. LOCATIONS LIKE  
KASE WILL ONLY BEGIN TO SEE A THREAT OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION  
AROUND IF NOT AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY  
FOR COZ009-010-012-013.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY  
FOR COZ018-019.  
 
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT  
FRIDAY FOR UTZ023.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY  
FOR UTZ028.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LARRY  
LONG TERM...LARRY  
AVIATION...JAM  
 
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