189
FXUS65 KGJT 090915
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
215 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LIGHT SNOW HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW CO BUT
CONTINUES TO WANE. LOW STATUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED IN SOME VALLEYS AS
EVIDENCED BY CLOUDS AT THE HAYDEN...RIFLE...EAGLE AND MONTROSE.
BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM SW CO ACROSS SRN UT WAS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH CLOSES OFF A
MID-LEVEL LOW TODAY...WHICH DROPS TO THE SRN CA COAST TONIGHT...
THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE USA/MEXICO BORDER WED AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN
THE SRN STREAM FLOW. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT SEEM TO TAP ANY DEEP
MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR A BIG IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATE TODAY THROUGH WED IN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS THE UPPER LOW TURNS THE CORNER INLAND...BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE WORDING FOR PRECIP FOCUSING ON THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE FAR SOUTHERN TRACK...THOUGH SKEWED POPS TOWARD THE
HIGHER SREF. SHEARING TROUGH AXIS PASSES WED NIGHT...AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS OF PRECIP A BIT TO
THE NRN MTNS WED NIGHT.
KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL MODIFIED BY
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A FEW STRONGER TROUGHS THAT WILL
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE AND THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH TWO VORT
MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE STRONGEST ON NW
FACING SLOPES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO AND UT MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE RECOVERS. THEN
ONE OF THE STRONGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN AS
THE RIDGES REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
STRATUS DECK TRAPPED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS. AIRPORTS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS ARE KHDN...KRIL...
KEGE...MTJ...KGUC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUDS
LOWERING TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF -SN DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM....CJC
AVIATION.....JAD
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