688  
FXUS65 KPUB 211735  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1135 AM MDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
CURRENTLY...RADAR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH  
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 3 AM, WHILE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT SITES SUCH AS KCOS AND KPUB WERE STRONGLY  
GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT 40-50 MPH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE  
SHOWING UP OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT  
THESE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.  
 
TODAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE  
ROCKIES IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS  
MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN  
MTS AND PLAINS INTO THIS AFTN, AND A DEFINITE COOLDOWN IN TEMPS AS  
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO SPRINGS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN CONTINUE  
SOUTH THROUGH PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA AROUND 6 AM, THEN TRINIDAD AROUND  
8 AM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND OUT OF THE WEST  
WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH PROBABLE. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS  
WILL SWING AROUND QUICKLY TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND THE  
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP  
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND SHORT-LIVED. TEMPS  
TODAY ARE FORECAST TO ONLY CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S,  
AND AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER THE HIGH TEMP MAY BE  
REALIZED THIS MORNING.  
 
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST OF COLORADO THIS  
EVENING, WITH COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLING IN. LOOK  
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS, WITH LOW TEMPS  
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
MOORE  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
...GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER (WHITER?) FOR LATE IN THE  
PERIOD...  
 
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO A MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE  
WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF  
THIS TROUGH BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE GETTING COLDER WITH AN INCREASING  
CHANCE OF PRECIP, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 
IN THE MEANTIME, WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY  
BE DRY AND RATHER MILD. A COOL FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION  
MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, BUT THE REST OF THE DAYS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY 70S ACROSS  
THE PLAINS.  
 
ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH DROPPING DOWN  
IN THE NW FLOW REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THE EC IS VERY AGGRESSIVE  
WITH THIS TROUGH, DEVELOPING A CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE 4  
CORNERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE OTHER GUIDANCE, GFS AND CANADIAN,  
HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THU NITE  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FOR NOW, I STARTED TO TREND THE FCST A BIT  
COLDER, CLOUDIER AND WETTER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT NOT NEARLY AS  
COLD OR WET AS THE EC GUIDANCE INDICATES. IF THE EC SHOULD VERIFY,  
IT WILL LIKELY GET VERY COLD (LOWS IN TEENS SAT) FOR EARLY NEXT  
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE PLAINS. \/HODANISH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTH  
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPUB  
WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THOUGH COULD OCCASIONALLY SHIFT OUT OF  
THE NORTH AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. -KT  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MOORE  
LONG TERM...HODANISH  
AVIATION...KT  
 
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