064
FXUS65 KPUB 241101
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
501 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..A DAY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY
BUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...
MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA TODAY. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY...THE AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON IS PRETTY
WARM SO THERE IS JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR AN
INCH IN MANY CASES. THE 00Z RAOBS FROM LAST EVENING INDICATED .89
INCHES OF WATER (135 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT KGJT LAST NIGHT. KDNR
REPORTED .97 INCHES OF WATER (143 PERCENT OF NORMAL). SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR DEEP...SEVERE CONVECTION...
THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...BELIEVE TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL EXTEND
FARTHER EAST...ENCOMPASSING JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE PLAINS...INSTEAD
OF CUTTING OFF NEAR LA JUNTA. COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE BIT LESS TODAY...AS THIS IS NEAR THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN PLUME WHERE IT IS LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY. LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY...LIKE WE SAW ON A FEW STORMS YESTERDAY. ASIDE
FROM THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...OTHER THREATS TODAY WILL INCLUDE
LIGHTNING (AND LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRES)...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ON THE PLAINS
PAST MIDNIGHT. SO...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THE GRIDS PAST
MIDNIGHT. LW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
TIMING OF FRONT AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA WITH REMNANTS OF DOLLY MOVING THROUGH NE
OLD MEXICO TO NEAR KELP BY FRI NIGHT. MOISTURE DOESN'T APPEAR TO
CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE AREA WITH H20 RUNNING FROM
.75 TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HIGHER PRECIP
WATERS WILL BE LURKING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IN
00Z MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO HANG UP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE OR A
LITTLE NORTH OF THAT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR SE CO AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO +18C ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. 06Z NAM HAS COME IN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS NOW POSITIONED ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE AFTN.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S...WITH CAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS SUGGESTING 1500+ J/KG. SHEARS ARE STRONGEST TO THE
NORTH...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAINLY THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION EASTWARD ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY. SPC HAS THIS AREA
OUTLOOKED IN NEW DAY 2 AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. OUT
WEST...MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STILL OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT LEADING TO SCATTERED SLOWING MOVING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTS. NAM/GFS SPREADS CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE OUR BEST SHOT AT FINALLY SEEING SOME RAINFALL.
TIME WILL TELL. 06Z NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE MOIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THAN 00Z RUN.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AND MOISTER ACROSS THE PLAINS. 06Z MODEL
RUNS KEEP 50+ DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH CAPES RUNNING FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. 00Z RUNS
LOOKED A LITTLE DRIER. DEEP LAYER SHEARS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
BUT CERTAINLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MODELS SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF DRYING INTO
SUNDAY AS LEE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RAMP UP
AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM DOLLY
GRADUALLY MAY GET ENTRAINED IN THE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL...SO LITTLE CHANGES TO GRIDS
MADE BEYOND SUNDAY TIME FRAME. -KT
AVIATION
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. LW
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
50/31
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