871  
FXUS65 KPUB 221045  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
445 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE RATON  
RIDGE REGION. MEANWHILE...MONSOON MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES  
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALOFT ACROSS MOST  
OF SOUTHERN CO WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM THE AMSU SSM/I SHOW  
VALUES RANGING FROM 100-130% OF NORMAL WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
FOR THIS MORNING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO  
DECREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO WORK  
WESTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS MORNING. THESE WILL SLOWLY  
ERODE AND BURN OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING. PLAINS WILL LIKELY STAY  
CAPPED TODAY...HOWEVER SURFACE HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK  
DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z  
MODEL RUNS FAVORING THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MORE SO THAN THE EASTERN  
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS  
GIVEN LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE. AREAS WITH  
SUSCEPTIBLE SOILS SUCH AS BURN SCARS WILL BE PARTICULARLY  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD  
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH A FEW  
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. -KT  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE  
PROGGED THROUGH MID WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN, AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE WITHIN THE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,  
REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH MINOR EMBEDDED WAVES EXPECTED TO HELP TO  
DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH  
STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND CONTINUING OUT ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING  
REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, ESPECIALLY ON  
THURSDAY, WITH ENOUGH JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR  
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LATE SUMMER AVERAGES.  
 
FRIDAY-MONDAY...UPPER HIGH SLOWLY RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN, WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
SHOULD SEE DRIER SLOWLY MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIDING  
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW A RETURN OF  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, OWNING TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SATURDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES  
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE  
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO  
BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION THIS MORNING.  
CIGS SHOULD BREAK BY AROUND 16Z FOR MOST AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON AND SPREAD  
INTO THE VALLEYS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
GIVEN STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO  
AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.  
KALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE TERMINAL. LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF VFR CIGS AND VIS  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. -KT  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KT  
LONG TERM...MW  
AVIATION...KT  
 
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