542  
FXUS65 KPUB 172041  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
241 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,  
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NV. A  
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN NM, NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN  
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM ABOUT THE I-25  
CORRIDOR COUNTIES AND WESTWARD, WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER  
EASTERN AREAS. THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE  
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, THE PIKES  
PEAK REGION AND MAYBE SOUTHWARD INTO PUEBLO AND HUERFANO COUNTIES.  
QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GFS ARE HIGHER THAN THE NAM, AND SHOW FROM A  
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO  
AROUND A HALF INCH OR A LITTLE MORE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A  
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS, AND POSSIBLY URBAN AREAS. IT  
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT, BUT  
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREA INTO THE  
LATE NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF  
SOUTHERN CO INTO THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER  
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  
 
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MON, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME  
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HIGH  
TEMPS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE, WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, AND  
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND THE  
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL  
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS, PUSHING A FRONT  
DOWN THE PLAINS. INCREASED MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAK  
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER  
OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST  
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS  
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW FILLING IN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF  
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, AN  
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. THE ADDITION OF  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CAUSE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST  
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO,  
INCREASING TPW TO AROUND AN INCH AGAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS  
NORTHEAST, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH  
COLORADO. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED  
ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING  
FOR ASCENT, SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS, AND ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE  
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP  
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
MOUNTAINS AND THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH MORE  
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHWEST  
MOUNTAINS WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. GIVEN HIGH TPW, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH  
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE, CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY  
BE WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. TUESDAY  
WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 80 IN  
THE HIGH VALLEYS, WHILE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, HEIGHT RISES AND  
ASSOCIATED QG DESCENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE. HOWEVER, STILL  
ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS  
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR LESS ON FRIDAY  
VERSUS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR ON THURSDAY AS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT  
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY  
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF ADVANCES A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE  
OVER COLORADO BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE THE GFS DOESN'T BRING IT  
IN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE CANADIAN EVEN LATER. BY THIS  
PERIOD, GEFS HAS MODERATE SPREAD IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. SO, WHILE IT  
IS APPEARING PROBABLE A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE BRINGS INCREASED  
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND, IT IS  
STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE MORE PRECISELY WHEN/WHERE/WHAT. -LINE-  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS, KPUB AND KALS  
THRU THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A FAIRLY  
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT KCOS AND MAYBE KPUB LATER THIS EVENING,  
WHICH COULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON  
MON, WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...28  
LONG TERM...LINE  
AVIATION...28  
 
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