542
FXUS65 KPUB 220107
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
607 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCOMING ARCTIC SYSTEM WILL BRING COLD, POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY WITH VERY
COLD TEMPS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY.
- BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
UPDATED FORECAST TO END RED FLAG WARNING, AS WINDS WERE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
CURRENTLY...
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH PASSING FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN, TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS CURRENTLY SHOW TEENS-20S OVER THE PLAINS
AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
THURSDAY...
THE START OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
EARLY ON THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A WEAK NORTHEAST SURGE
BACKDOORING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE AREA COOLING OFF THEREAFTER, THOUGH WE
SHOULD STILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID-LOW 40S OVER
MOST OF THE LOWER AREAS, STEADILY COOLING FROM THE NORTHEAST THE
REST OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME, STILL NOT EXPECTING THIS INITIAL
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO MAKE IT INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, SO THEY
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, INCREASED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA, KEEPING US GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
FRIDAY...
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, SKIES WILL LIKELY BE OVERCAST ALL
AREAS AND POP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALL AREAS. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE PLAIN, EAST WINDS OF 20 TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD, AND
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH TEENS AND 20S ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW
LIKELY OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR A
DANGEROUS WINTER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. NO WINTER
HILITES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE, BUT COLD
WEATHER HILITES ALONG WITH SNOW ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WITH LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE ARCTIC AIR IS RATHER
SHALLOW AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE 8000 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT....
VERY COLD WITH MIN TEMPS READINGS IN THE NEGATIVE 5 TO POSITIVE 5
DEGREE RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT, BUT IT STILL WILL BE
BREEZY AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALL OF THE
REGION. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND THE
INTENSITY MAY PICKUP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.
SATURDAY...
THIS DAY WE WILL SEE THE UPWARD FORCING OVER THE REGION AND
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE REGION. IT IS
DURING THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SNOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION (60-90%). ALL OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
FALL. THE OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUANS
AND THE TOPS OVER THE SANGRES. PLAINS COULD SEE 0.5 TO 2' LATE
FRI NITE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IF
WE CLEAR OUT AND THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THEN WE COULD SEE TEMPS
TANK TO WELL BELOW ZERO F ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW SINGLE DIGITS
COVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA, BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
SUNDAY...
TEMPS WILL BEGIN WARM UP, BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO MAINLY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE FCST AREA, BEST CHANCE OF SOME TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL BE ALONG THE MTN/PLAINS INTERFACE AS SOME LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES MAY BEGIN TO WARM UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY WARM UP AS TEMPS ALOFT QUICKLY WARM UP AND 40S
SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION BY MONDAY, WITH SOME 50S BY TUESDAY.
\/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
AT KALS, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD
LIGHT DRAINAGE THIS EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. ON THU, COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE REGION BY
MIDDAY, WITH WINDS AT BOTH SITES BECOMING EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENING TOWARD 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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