653  
FXUS65 KPUB 261638  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1038 AM MDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
GOES-16 SPLIT-WINDOW DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS INDICATE  
BLOWING DUST EMANATING OFF OF THE RECENT 117 FIRE BURN SCAR IN  
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND BADGER HOLE FIRE BURN SCAR IN EASTERN  
BACA COUNTY. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN  
THESE AREAS, CARRYING DUST WELL SOUTH, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND AIR  
QUALITY IN AREAS. HAVE ADDED BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS THROUGH  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO  
DECREASE.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UP ON THE PALMER  
DIVIDE FOR THIS MORNING AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL  
FORCING MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES,  
AND A MONUMENT WEBCAM SHOWS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW STARTING TO FALL.  
VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
CURRENTLY.  
 
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 3 AM. THIS FRONT  
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATE OVER  
WYOMING. A BAND OF CLOUDINESS WAS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A  
FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN WYOMING.  
 
TEMPS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION AT 3 AM. %0S WERE NOTED  
JUST EAST OF THE MTNS, WHILE MOST OTHER TEMPS ON THE PLAINS AND  
VALLEYS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. COLD AIR POOLING WAS NOTED IN A FEW  
OF THE VALLEYS AS NEARBY LOWER-MID MTN TEMPS WERE NOTICEABLY WARMER  
THEN THE VALLEY FLOORS.  
 
TODAY...  
 
FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
SHOULD REACH THE NM BORDER AROUND 6-7 AM. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE  
PLAINS. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WINDY ON THE PLAINS, TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO  
GET INTO THE 60S MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH 50S ON THE DIVIDES.  
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY, WITH 30S AND 40S  
IN THE MTNS. VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS OVER THE PLAINS THIS  
MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
MTNS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE LESS WIND THEN THE PLAINS TODAY, ALTHOUGH  
IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE LESS CLOUDS.  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE L30S OVER THE PLAINS AND 20S AND 30S  
MTNS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, PROVIDING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES.  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUMP MOISTURE UP  
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON,  
AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES TO THE EAST THE PCPN COVERAGE WILL DO  
SO AS WELL, SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SAT  
MORNING, THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SAT AFTN. LOOK FOR HIGH  
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR FRI, THEN 60S FOR THE HIGH  
VALLEYS AND 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE PLAINS ON SAT.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NW ON SUN, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER LOW DEGRADES SOMEWHAT AND THE WHOLE UPPER  
PATTERN BECOMES A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
COUNTRY, WITH ANOTHER LOW FORMING AND DUMB-BELLING ACROSS THE DESERT  
SW AND UP ACROSS CO THROUGH WED. THE WHOLE SCENARIO IS VERY CHAOTIC,  
BUT WHAT STANDS OUT IS THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE A GOOD  
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN SUN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT  
WORK WEEK, UNDER NEARLY CONSTANT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BOTH SUN AND  
MON, AND COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTH DAYS  
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NEAR  
CRITICAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL START OUT VERY WARM ON SUN,  
THEN GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO EXTENSIVE  
CLOUD COVER AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE  
60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN  
AND MON. TUE WILL COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE HIGH  
VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW PASSES  
OVERHEAD WED, TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH 50S FOR THE HIGH  
VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL  
3 TAF SITES; KPUB, KALS AND KCOS, IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY TODAY AT  
KCOS AND KPUB, AND BREEZY AT KALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS (30-40  
KTS) WILL PREVAIL MOST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...LINE  
SHORT TERM...HODANISH  
LONG TERM...MOORE  
AVIATION...HODANISH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page Main Text Page