196
FXUS65 KPUB 071042
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
342 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WINDS STILL QUITE STRONG ABOVE 10K FEET...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND
45 MPH.
TODAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BE WEST SOUTHWEST...BUT WINDS WILL
SLOW...WITH NAM12 SHOWING 700MB WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 MPH.
700MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
READINGS. SO...ANOTHER PLEASANT NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP. HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE RECORDS...WITH
THOSE RECORDS BEING 67 IN ALAMOSA...77 IN COLORADO SPRINGS...AND 84
IN PUEBLO. WHILE MID-AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT FOR A FEW
HOURS...WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT GET CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. IN
FACT...WEAK LA JUNTA CYCLONE SHOWS UP IN THE NAM12...SO WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...LOOKING AT ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND READINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE PLAINS. -TLM-
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
LATEST NAM RUN IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN BRINGING A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPS AT H7 SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A NRLY COMPONENT BY MID DAY. HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS
ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR
THE PLAINS.
COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SLOPES AND PIKES PK REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO LOOK RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH JUST LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN MTS AND ERN MTS ESPECIALLY MON. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SN ACCUMS OVR THE HYR ELEVS. LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND OVER THE ERN
SLOPES AND HYR TRRN W OF I-25 THROUGH TUE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THRU TUE OVR THE PLAINS.
A BIT OF A WARM UP FOR MID WEEK...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING SWRLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE SOME
RESPECTABLE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVR THE DVD BEGINNING LATE WED AND
LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER
AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND
IS FOR COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WK. ROSE
AVIATION
VFR ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. -TLM-
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
13/44
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