268  
FXUS65 KPUB 301342  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
742 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
UPDATED TO CANCEL FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONE 86 (MOST OF PUEBLO  
COUNTY).  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CROWLEY,  
OTERO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. ALSO UPDATED MORNING WINDS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ADJUSTED MORNING POPS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
PRIMARY NEAR-SHORT RANGE METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE AMOUNT OF  
IMPACT(MAINLY SNOW AND WINDS/VISIBILITIES...ETC.) DEPARTING SYSTEM  
HAS ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO TODAY AS WELL  
AS TEMPERATURES.  
 
ANOTHER ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS  
RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...PV ANALYSIS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND  
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW  
CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AT 12Z THIS MORNING MOVES INTO  
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO IOWA BY 12Z  
MONDAY.  
 
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A COMBINATION OF SNOW(HEAVY AT  
TIMES) AND HEALTHY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE 30  
MPH 40 MPH RANGE(WITH HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT TIMES), ESPECIALLY OVER  
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THIS MORNING, THEREFORE HAVE  
MAINTAINED EXISTING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS  
SECTOR UNTIL 19Z TODAY.  
 
IN ADDITION, A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE I-25  
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT AREAS UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING DUE TO CURRENT  
AND/OR EXPECTED FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.  
ALSO, ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING,  
ALTHOUGH RECENT DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM  
OVER MANY LOCATIONS TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME. WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR  
CLOSELY.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT, ANTICIPATE THAT DRIER  
CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES(WITH AMOUNT  
OF WARMING DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF SNOW PACK) WILL BE EXPERIENCED  
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS(ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW  
LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES).  
 
FINALLY...THE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF  
TODAY(PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON,  
WITH ITS MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS  
AREAS. THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. HIGH TEMPS ON MON  
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, AND  
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
THE FIRST HALF OF TUE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY, BUT IN THE  
AFTERNOON A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE GFS  
SPREADS PCPN ACRS ALL THE MTN AREAS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN  
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN IN THE EVENING HOURS, INCREASES PCPN OVR THE  
SOUTHEAST MTNS AND ALL OF THE PLAINS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER  
AND MAINLY SHOWS SOME PCPN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE  
CENTRAL MTNS AND ACRS THE PIKES PEAK AREA AND PALMER DIVIDE, AND  
THEN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IT SPREADS INCREASED  
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST MTNS AND PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN  
BELOW AVERAGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUE AND AROUND AVERAGE IN  
THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN  
THE ECMWF AND THUS THE SNOW LEVEL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS  
TIME, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE 6000 OR 7000 FEET. IT  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THRU WED WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING  
OVER THE EASTERN MTNS AND MAYBE SOME OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS ON WED  
WILL GENERALLY BE COLDER THAN ON TUE AND WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACRS  
ALL OF SOUTHERN CO.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU  
AND REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR FRI AND INTO EARLY SAT, WITH  
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS THU ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE  
AROUND AVERAGE AND THEN SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FRI.  
 
ON SAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST AND AHEAD OF  
THIS SYSTEM, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN  
INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE AREA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVR  
THE MTNS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
LARGE WINTER STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS SLOW NORTHEAST  
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO  
IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF PRIMARILY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO  
PLAINS WITH SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, LOW CEILING AND LOW VISIBILITIES.  
THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL DECREASE BY LATER TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KCOS, KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES  
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN  
BEING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT  
TIMES TODAY(AT KCOS AND KPUB) WITH WINDS THEN DECREASING FROM LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ083>085-087-  
088.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ094.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
COZ095>099.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...28  
SHORT TERM...77  
LONG TERM...28  
AVIATION...77  
 
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