269  
FXUS65 KPUB 252159  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
359 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WILL KEEP THIS  
SHORT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS TRIGGERED SOME  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000  
J/KG, PLUS SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE SEVERE RISK  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN  
EFFECT TIL 04Z.  
 
TONIGHT, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS  
WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS IN PLAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT MORE STORMS  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA AND LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT SAN LUIS VALLEY  
WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN WANE.  
 
MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH THE RISK FOR MORE ISOLATED  
SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE A LESSER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
OUT WEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A BREAK DURING  
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, AND ACTIVE WEATHER REAPPEARING FOR  
THE WEEKEND. HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT  
ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING  
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH  
AND EAST THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, AND OUT ALONG THE NEW  
MEXICO BORDER. EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE  
CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT  
EASTWARD WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY  
EVENING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER  
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE LOW LEVELS  
INDICATE A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS,  
GENERALLY EAST OF AN EADS TO KIM LINE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL  
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE  
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP WITH  
EMBEDDED ENERGY PASSING TO THE NORTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE  
ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. BY  
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER THE PLAINS  
LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND WARM.  
 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOOKS  
TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH GENERALLY NORTHWEST  
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ENERGY  
MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SOMEWHAT COOLER AS WELL WITH 80S FOR HIGHS. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER  
KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING. KALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. KPUB AND KALS  
SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TM  
LONG TERM...MOZLEY  
AVIATION...TM  
 
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