980  
FXUS65 KPUB 230009  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
609 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
UPDATED TO CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY  
FOR HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN  
HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES HAS RISEN ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND  
THEREFORE THE WARNING IS NO LONGER NEEDED. HOWEVER, A RED FLAG  
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND  
ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
..SNOW RETURNS TO THE DIVIDE
 
HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS TO THE  
PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...  
 
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS MAKING SLOW BUT  
STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ACCELERATE THE  
STORM AND MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 6 AM THURSDAY AND  
INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 6 PM. AS IT DOES SO, SNOW, FIRE DANGER AND  
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS SOUTHERN  
COLORADO.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE TRINIDAD  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  
SO, THE RED FLAG WARNING DOWN THERE WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING.  
 
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, NOT MUCH GOING ON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A  
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT LITTLE  
IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THOSE.  
 
THURSDAY IS WHEN THINGS START RAMPING UP. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE  
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SHOWERS  
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON AND START TO SPREAD TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH VALLEYS IN BETWEEN COULD SEE A FEW  
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY AND AMOUNTS PRETTY  
LIGHT. THE PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THURSDAY.  
 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,  
CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING LOW. HOWEVER, THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS,  
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER, NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IF  
STORMS CAN DEVELOP.  
 
FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. WINDS, HUMIDITY AND FUELS WILL MEET CRITERIA ON A  
WIDESPREAD BASIS STARTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO  
THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 40 MPH, HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AT LEAST 10  
PERCENT AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE  
BEHAVIOR. BURNING OR ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT COULD ACCIDENTALLY  
SPARK A WILDFIRE SHOULD BE POSTPONED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
..HIGH WINDS, SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
 
 
A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE  
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND  
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUT NEAR THE  
KANSAS BORDER. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL  
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS. EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY  
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
A SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT NEAR THE KANSAS  
BORDER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND NAM 3KM DEVELOP A  
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD IT EAST INTO  
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE  
HOW FAR WEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS. MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S  
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  
SHEAR LOOKS GOOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO ROTATE IN THE MID  
LEVELS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  
AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP.  
 
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTH OVER THE  
PALMER DIVIDE AND DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
NORTHERLY WINDS 35 TO 45 WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH ARE LIKELY  
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE SPREADING EAST  
ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED ON EAST TO WEST HIGHWAYS. IN ADDITION, DOWNED POWER  
LINES MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. TREE DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  
EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
CLEAR INTO KANSAS BY THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL  
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 6 TO 10 INCHES  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH  
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER  
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES ON AREA ROADWAYS  
AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE TREE DAMAGE ON TREES WHERE LEAVES ARE  
ALREADY OCCURRING. THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY WILL BE HEAVILY  
IMPACTED.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000  
FEET THROUGH THE EVENT. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY  
RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM  
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS  
COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 60S FOR HIGHS.  
 
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
RAIN AND SNOWFALL FOR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER STORM IS FORECAST TO  
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO  
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS MOST OF FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDING THE  
KCOS, KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL  
START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT, WITH  
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD 12-18Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING  
SPOTTY MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TONIGHT.  
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL START TO  
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES  
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR  
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THAT ACTIVITY. SAVE FOR SOME VERY SPOTTY  
STUFF, IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS FLIGHT AREA WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST  
WINDS TO THE SURFACE MOST AREAS 12-18Z THURSDAY CONTINUING THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ226>237.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR COZ084>089-093>099.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR COZ073-075-080-082.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-084.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...28  
SHORT TERM...LW  
LONG TERM...MOZLEY  
AVIATION...LW  
 
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