211
FXUS65 KPUB 041049
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
449 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...MAIN CONCERN IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF SOMEONE BEING STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING TODAY AND THIS EVENING...2NDRY CONCERN IS
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...
CURRENTLY...COOL FRONT WELL INTO NM WITH A 2NDRY SURGE APPROACHING
THE RATON MESA AT 3 AM. AN ISOLD WEAKENING TSRA WAS NOTED
APPROACHING NE EL PASO COUNTY. LLVL MSTR HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S AT NEARLY ALL PLAINS
LOCATIONS. SCTD MID LVL CLOUDIENESS WAS NOTED OVER THE CWA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE'LY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WITH 20
KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WE WILL GET ABOUT 30-40 KNTS OF DEEP
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES SHOULD REACH ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH THE BEST CAPES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDORY. CANT REALLY
FIND A OBVIOUS SHORT WAVE (ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PROBABLY A FEW WEAK
RIPPLES IN THIS W-NW FLOW)...SO FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM
HEATING. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LOW END SVR
POTENTIAL TODAY...MAINLY ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS AND I-25
CORRIDOR. SPC IN THEIR DAY1 PRETTY MUCH HAS OUR PLAINS OUTLOOKED FOR
LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE HODOGRAPHS...MAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE HAIL. I
WOULD ANTICIPATE A BLUE BOX OVER THE E PLAINS OF CO BY MID
AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST
NAM KEEPS STRONG CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...HOWEVER I DO EXPECT
WE WILL SEE SOME LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH SVR IS A THREAT TODAY...THE BIGGEST WX CONCERN IS
LIGHTNING. WITH LOTS OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE AND TSRA IN THE AREA...RISK
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR CASUALTIES TODAY. YDAY THERE WAS AN
INJURY UP IN THE DENVER METRO AREA DUE TO A LTG STRIKE. MEDIA ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO PLAY UP THE LTG THREAT TODAY AND TOMORROW.
REMEMBER...NO PLACE OUTSIDE IS SAFE FROM LTG. THERE IS NOTHING YOU
CAN DO TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE YOUR RISK FROM BEING STRUCK BY LTG
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE. THE ONLY SAFE THING TO DO IS GET INTO A
SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING OR A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. IF LTG IS IN THE
AREA...TAKE ACTION...DONT BECOME A LIGHTNING CASUALTY STATISTIC.
\/HODANISH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE AREA...WHICH IN TURN WILL ACT ON
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY THE AFTN. LATEST
SPC OUTLOOK PAINTS ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING AROUND 1500 J/KG
CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVERLAYING S-SE SFC FLOW...AND STORMS FIRING OFF THE MTS ARE
EXPECTED TO READILY TRACK TO THE EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALL AREA...SO A BIT COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S AND 80S MOST AREAS.
MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA ON MON...STARTING TO DRY
THINGS OUT AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND CURRENT
GRIDS INDICATE THIS. WENT AHEAD AND GOT A LITTLE MORE SPECIFIC ON
WANING CONVECTION LATER AT NIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ALL AREASD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES UP
ACROSS NM TUE AND WED...AND SW FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS INTO
WESTERN CO INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPS AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED
POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTN AND EVE...SINCE GFS IS
HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART EXPECT HOT AND DRY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS. MOORE
AVIATION
OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AT THE
TAF SITES. IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...IT WILL BE BRIEF AS STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN A SE DIRECTION. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE
WE MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH MAY AFFECT
KPUB AND KCOS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
34/27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page