400
UXUS97 KBOU 191356
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
0756 MDT SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2013
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2013:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 61.9 F/16.6 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 488 FT/MIN (2.5 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 14942 FT MSL (9657 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 66.0 F/19.3 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1030 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST OPAQUE MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 8124 FT MSL (2839 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 05/20....... FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ WEAK PVA
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 14377 FT MSL (9092 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 05/20.......... POOR
REMARKS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:41:20 / 20:10:26 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 29 MIN 5 SEC (869 MIN 5 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:56:05 MDT... 70.14 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 05/19/2013 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 10914 FT MSL (5629 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 14604 FT MSL (9319 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 14799 FT MSL (9514 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +0.7
K INDEX......................... +20.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.7 -66.5 265 19 10 6.8 3.7 105.8 222.4 50.1 M M
45000 -49.7 -57.5 260 21 11 3.9 2.1 89.6 193.4 43.6 M M
40000 -46.5 -51.7 250 27 14 -4.9 -2.7 70.7 159.2 34.1 M M
38000 -47.3 -53.1 240 24 13 -10.7 -5.9 60.7 141.3 28.3 M M
36000 -48.5 -55.3 220 20 10 -10.0 -5.5 50.5 122.9 22.0 M M
34000 -49.1 -56.4 185 25 13 -4.4 -2.4 41.3 106.3 15.9 M M
32000 -47.0 -52.6 150 35 18 7.0 3.9 36.1 97.0 12.6 M M
30000 -43.5 -46.3 135 47 24 5.2 2.8 32.9 91.3 10.5 M M
29000 -41.1 -42.0 150 37 19 8.4 4.6 32.2 90.0 10.1 M M
28000 -39.0 -38.2 165 29 15 2.5 1.4 30.2 86.4 8.7 M M
27000 -37.1 -34.8 185 25 13 8.1 4.5 28.9 84.0 7.8 M M
26000 -34.7 -30.5 205 25 13 8.2 4.5 28.3 83.0 7.4 M M
25000 -32.2 -26.0 210 22 11 8.4 4.6 27.7 81.9 7.1 M M
24000 -29.7 -21.5 215 18 9 8.2 4.5 27.2 81.0 6.7 M M
23000 -27.4 -17.3 215 15 8 7.7 4.2 26.5 79.7 6.2 M M
22000 -25.3 -13.5 225 14 7 5.9 3.2 25.6 78.1 5.5 M M
21000 -23.5 -10.3 235 13 7 6.0 3.3 24.2 75.5 4.4 M M
20000 -21.7 -7.1 250 13 7 5.7 3.1 22.9 73.3 3.3 M M
19500 -20.7 -5.3 265 11 6 9.5 5.2 22.4 72.3 2.8 M M
19000 -19.1 -2.4 280 9 5 10.1 5.6 22.6 72.6 3.0 M M
18500 -17.7 0.1 305 9 5 9.2 5.0 22.5 72.6 2.9 M M
18000 -16.6 2.1 305 8 4 7.0 3.9 22.2 71.9 2.6 M M
17500 -15.5 4.1 300 8 4 7.2 3.9 21.7 71.1 2.2 M M
17000 -14.5 5.9 300 7 4 7.2 3.9 21.3 70.3 1.8 M M
16500 -13.4 7.9 300 7 3 7.2 4.0 20.9 69.5 1.4 M M
16000 -12.4 9.7 295 6 3 7.2 4.0 20.5 68.8 1.0 M M
15500 -11.3 11.7 310 7 4 7.2 4.0 20.0 68.1 0.6 M M
15000 -10.3 13.5 320 8 4 6.5 3.6 19.5 67.2 0.2 M M
14500 -9.3 15.3 330 10 5 6.6 3.6 19.0 66.2 -0.3 859 4.4
14000 -7.9 17.8 335 12 6 6.6 3.6 18.3 64.9 -1.0 793 4.0
13500 -6.9 19.6 345 12 6 6.3 3.5 17.7 63.9 -1.5 749 3.8
13000 -5.8 21.6 350 12 6 9.4 5.1 17.4 63.3 -1.8 700 3.6
12500 -4.3 24.3 360 12 6 9.4 5.2 17.3 63.2 -1.9 643 3.3
12000 -2.9 26.8 005 12 6 9.4 5.2 17.3 63.1 -1.9 586 3.0
11500 -1.5 29.3 010 11 6 9.5 5.2 17.2 63.0 -2.0 529 2.7
11000 -0.1 31.8 010 10 5 9.7 5.3 17.2 63.0 -2.0 470 2.4
10500 1.4 34.5 015 10 5 9.7 5.3 17.2 63.0 -2.0 412 2.1
10250 2.1 35.8 020 9 5 9.8 5.4 17.2 63.0 -2.0 383 1.9
10000 2.8 37.0 020 9 5 9.5 5.2 17.2 63.0 -2.1 354 1.8
9750 3.5 38.3 020 8 4 9.2 5.1 17.2 62.9 -2.1 326 1.7
9500 4.2 39.6 015 6 3 9.2 5.1 17.1 62.8 -2.2 299 1.5
9250 4.9 40.8 010 5 3 9.4 5.2 17.1 62.8 -2.2 271 1.4
9000 5.5 41.9 005 4 2 8.6 4.7 17.1 62.7 -2.3 243 1.2
8750 6.1 43.0 345 4 2 7.0 3.8 16.9 62.4 -2.4 219 1.1
8500 6.6 43.9 325 4 2 6.7 3.7 16.7 62.0 -2.7 196 1.0
8250 7.1 44.8 315 5 3 6.8 3.7 16.4 61.6 -2.9 174 0.9
8000 7.6 45.7 305 6 3 6.7 3.7 16.2 61.2 -3.1 152 0.8
7750 8.1 46.6 305 6 3 6.7 3.7 16.0 60.8 -3.4 129 0.7
7500 8.6 47.5 305 5 3 6.7 3.7 15.8 60.4 -3.6 107 0.5
7250 9.1 48.4 310 5 3 6.8 3.7 15.5 60.0 -3.8 84 0.4
7000 9.6 49.3 310 5 3 6.7 3.7 15.3 59.6 -4.1 62 0.3
6750 10.1 50.2 290 5 3 6.8 3.8 15.1 59.1 -4.3 40 0.2
6500 10.6 51.1 270 6 3 6.4 3.5 14.8 58.7 -4.6 17 0.1
6250 11.1 52.0 260 7 4 8.1 4.5 14.6 58.3 -4.8 M M
6000 11.7 53.1 250 9 5 8.2 4.5 14.6 58.2 -5.0 M M
5750 12.0 53.6 245 8 4 3.0 1.6 14.2 57.6 -5.4 M M
5500 12.0 53.6 240 7 4 -0.4 -0.2 13.6 56.4 -6.2 M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
05/19/2013 AT 0900 MDT | 05/19/2013 AT 1200 MDT
|
K INDEX... +16.3 LI... +0.9 | K INDEX... +16.6 LI... -0.1
CAPE... 0.0 CIN... M | CAPE... +0.2 CIN... -1.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.9 -65.0 280 22 11 4.2 2.3 | -54.4 -65.9 280 28 14 4.4 2.4
45000 -47.6 -53.7 280 26 13 2.3 1.2 | -47.9 -54.2 275 29 15 2.2 1.2
40000 -44.2 -47.6 275 22 11 2.3 1.2 | -44.6 -48.3 270 23 12 2.2 1.2
38000 -44.2 -47.6 265 19 10 -1.4 -0.8 | -44.3 -47.7 265 19 10 -0.5 -0.3
36000 -45.1 -49.2 250 15 8 -1.4 -0.8 | -44.6 -48.3 250 14 7 -0.5 -0.3
34000 -45.9 -50.6 225 13 6 0.1 0.0 | -44.9 -48.8 225 9 5 -0.2 -0.1
32000 -45.8 -50.4 200 9 5 0.0 0.0 | -45.0 -49.0 180 9 4 -0.3 -0.1
30000 -45.0 -49.0 160 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -44.4 -47.9 145 12 6 6.3 3.4
29000 -42.9 -45.2 165 8 4 6.8 3.7 | -42.5 -44.5 140 11 6 6.2 3.4
28000 -40.9 -41.6 170 7 4 6.8 3.7 | -40.7 -41.3 135 10 5 6.2 3.4
27000 -38.9 -38.0 175 7 3 7.5 4.1 | -38.8 -37.8 130 10 5 7.1 3.9
26000 -36.3 -33.3 185 6 3 8.6 4.7 | -36.3 -33.3 130 8 4 8.5 4.6
25000 -33.8 -28.8 200 6 3 8.6 4.7 | -33.8 -28.8 135 6 3 8.5 4.6
24000 -31.2 -24.2 210 6 3 8.5 4.7 | -31.2 -24.2 140 5 2 8.4 4.6
23000 -28.8 -19.8 230 5 2 8.1 4.4 | -28.8 -19.8 155 3 2 8.0 4.4
22000 -26.4 -15.5 250 4 2 8.1 4.4 | -26.5 -15.7 185 2 1 8.0 4.4
21000 -24.0 -11.2 275 4 2 7.8 4.3 | -24.1 -11.4 235 2 1 7.8 4.3
20000 -21.7 -7.1 275 5 3 7.6 4.2 | -21.8 -7.2 255 5 2 7.6 4.2
19500 -20.6 -5.1 275 6 3 7.6 4.2 | -20.7 -5.3 260 6 3 7.6 4.2
19000 -19.5 -3.1 280 6 3 7.6 4.2 | -19.6 -3.3 265 7 4 7.6 4.2
18500 -18.3 -0.9 280 6 3 7.7 4.2 | -18.4 -1.1 265 8 4 7.7 4.2
18000 -17.2 1.0 280 7 3 7.8 4.3 | -17.2 1.0 265 9 5 8.0 4.4
17500 -16.0 3.2 280 7 4 7.8 4.3 | -16.0 3.2 260 11 5 8.1 4.5
17000 -14.8 5.4 285 7 4 8.0 4.4 | -14.9 5.2 260 12 6 7.4 4.1
16500 -13.6 7.5 285 7 4 8.0 4.4 | -13.8 7.2 260 12 6 7.5 4.1
16000 -12.5 9.5 285 8 4 7.4 4.0 | -12.7 9.1 265 12 6 7.3 4.0
15500 -11.4 11.5 285 8 4 7.0 3.8 | -11.6 11.1 270 12 6 7.2 3.9
15000 -9.9 14.2 285 9 4 7.0 3.8 | -10.0 14.0 275 12 6 7.1 3.9
14500 -8.9 16.0 285 9 5 7.0 3.8 | -9.0 15.8 285 11 6 7.1 3.9
14000 -7.8 18.0 285 9 5 7.1 3.9 | -8.0 17.6 295 11 6 7.1 3.9
13500 -6.8 19.8 285 9 5 7.2 3.9 | -6.9 19.6 300 11 5 7.1 3.9
13000 -5.7 21.7 285 9 5 7.1 3.9 | -5.9 21.4 305 10 5 7.0 3.8
12500 -4.7 23.5 290 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -4.9 23.2 315 10 5 6.8 3.7
12000 -3.7 25.3 295 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -3.9 25.0 320 10 5 7.1 3.9
11500 -2.7 27.1 310 7 3 6.9 3.8 | -2.8 27.0 320 11 6 7.6 4.2
11000 -1.7 28.9 325 6 3 7.0 3.8 | -1.7 28.9 320 12 6 8.0 4.4
10500 -0.6 30.9 340 6 3 6.6 3.6 | -0.5 31.1 320 12 6 7.9 4.3
10250 -0.1 31.8 345 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 0.1 32.2 320 12 6 11.1 6.1
10000 0.7 33.3 350 7 4 10.8 5.9 | 1.1 34.0 320 12 6 12.1 6.6
9750 1.4 34.5 345 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 1.8 35.2 320 12 6 9.6 5.3
9500 2.1 35.8 345 9 4 9.0 5.0 | 2.6 36.7 320 12 6 10.4 5.7
9250 2.8 37.0 340 9 5 9.4 5.2 | 3.3 37.9 320 12 6 9.6 5.2
9000 3.5 38.3 335 10 5 9.3 5.1 | 4.0 39.2 320 12 6 9.4 5.2
8750 4.2 39.6 330 12 6 8.5 4.7 | 4.7 40.5 320 12 6 10.1 5.6
8500 4.8 40.6 330 14 7 8.8 4.8 | 5.5 41.9 320 12 6 9.6 5.3
8250 5.4 41.7 325 15 8 8.2 4.5 | 6.2 43.2 320 12 6 11.0 6.0
8000 6.0 42.8 320 17 9 6.4 3.5 | 7.1 44.8 320 12 6 11.6 6.4
7750 6.4 43.5 315 17 9 5.7 3.1 | 7.9 46.2 320 12 6 9.5 5.2
7500 6.7 44.1 310 16 8 5.0 2.8 | 8.5 47.3 320 12 6 8.2 4.5
7250 7.1 44.8 310 15 8 7.8 4.3 | 9.2 48.6 320 12 6 10.1 5.6
7000 7.9 46.2 305 14 7 10.8 5.9 | 10.0 50.0 320 12 6 11.7 6.4
6750 8.6 47.5 305 13 7 9.6 5.3 | 10.9 51.6 320 12 6 10.0 5.5
6500 9.3 48.7 305 13 7 9.7 5.3 | 11.6 52.9 320 12 6 9.8 5.3
6250 10.1 50.2 305 12 6 10.8 5.9 | 12.4 54.3 320 11 6 11.1 6.1
6000 10.9 51.6 305 12 6 11.6 6.3 | 13.2 55.8 320 11 6 12.2 6.7
5750 11.7 53.1 305 11 6 9.7 5.3 | 14.1 57.4 320 11 6 9.7 5.3
5500 12.4 54.3 305 11 6 11.8 6.5 | 14.9 58.8 320 11 5 14.6 8.0
05/19/2013 AT 1500 MDT | 05/19/2013 AT 1800 MDT
|
K INDEX... +23.0 LI... -0.8 | K INDEX... +21.9 LI... -0.6
CAPE... +56.5 CIN... -1.4 | CAPE... +20.0 CIN... -16.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.9 -65.0 285 26 13 4.3 2.4 | -54.0 -65.2 275 26 13 4.9 2.7
45000 -47.4 -53.3 275 31 16 2.1 1.2 | -46.9 -52.4 265 33 17 1.8 1.0
40000 -44.3 -47.7 265 29 15 2.1 1.2 | -44.4 -47.9 265 29 15 1.7 0.9
38000 -44.0 -47.2 255 25 13 -0.7 -0.4 | -44.3 -47.7 265 26 13 -1.0 -0.6
36000 -44.4 -47.9 250 19 10 -0.7 -0.4 | -44.9 -48.8 255 21 11 -1.0 -0.6
34000 -44.8 -48.6 230 14 7 -0.4 -0.2 | -45.5 -49.9 245 17 9 0.1 0.0
32000 -45.1 -49.2 185 14 7 -0.4 -0.2 | -45.5 -49.9 230 14 7 0.0 0.0
30000 -44.4 -47.9 160 19 10 6.7 3.7 | -44.6 -48.3 215 13 7 6.8 3.7
29000 -42.5 -44.5 160 19 10 6.5 3.6 | -42.6 -44.7 215 13 7 6.7 3.7
28000 -40.5 -40.9 160 19 10 6.6 3.6 | -40.6 -41.1 220 13 7 6.7 3.7
27000 -38.6 -37.5 160 19 10 7.2 4.0 | -38.6 -37.5 220 14 7 7.3 4.0
26000 -36.1 -33.0 165 15 8 8.3 4.5 | -36.2 -33.2 225 11 6 8.2 4.5
25000 -33.6 -28.5 170 11 6 8.3 4.5 | -33.7 -28.7 230 9 5 8.2 4.5
24000 -31.1 -24.0 180 8 4 8.3 4.5 | -31.3 -24.3 240 7 4 8.2 4.5
23000 -28.7 -19.7 200 6 3 8.3 4.5 | -28.8 -19.8 260 7 4 8.3 4.5
22000 -26.2 -15.2 230 6 3 8.3 4.6 | -26.3 -15.3 280 8 4 8.3 4.6
21000 -23.8 -10.8 255 7 3 7.5 4.1 | -23.9 -11.0 295 10 5 7.6 4.2
20000 -21.7 -7.1 265 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -21.8 -7.2 300 12 6 7.1 3.9
19500 -20.7 -5.3 270 11 6 6.9 3.8 | -20.7 -5.3 300 14 7 7.1 3.9
19000 -19.7 -3.5 270 13 7 6.9 3.8 | -19.7 -3.5 300 15 8 7.1 3.9
18500 -18.6 -1.5 275 15 7 7.0 3.9 | -18.6 -1.5 300 16 8 7.3 4.0
18000 -17.6 0.3 275 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -17.5 0.5 300 17 9 7.5 4.1
17500 -16.5 2.3 280 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -16.4 2.5 305 17 9 7.5 4.1
17000 -15.4 4.3 280 16 8 6.9 3.8 | -15.3 4.5 305 18 9 7.5 4.1
16500 -14.4 6.1 290 16 8 7.0 3.8 | -14.2 6.4 310 19 10 7.5 4.1
16000 -12.9 8.8 300 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -12.5 9.5 315 21 11 7.5 4.1
15500 -11.8 10.8 305 17 9 7.3 4.0 | -11.4 11.5 315 22 11 7.5 4.1
15000 -10.7 12.7 310 17 9 7.1 3.9 | -10.3 13.5 315 23 12 7.9 4.4
14500 -9.7 14.5 315 18 9 7.1 3.9 | -9.1 15.6 320 24 12 8.0 4.4
14000 -8.6 16.5 315 18 9 7.2 4.0 | -7.9 17.8 320 24 12 8.0 4.4
13500 -7.6 18.3 320 16 8 7.4 4.0 | -6.8 19.8 320 24 12 7.9 4.4
13000 -6.5 20.3 325 15 8 8.0 4.4 | -5.6 21.9 320 23 12 7.5 4.1
12500 -5.3 22.5 330 14 7 8.5 4.7 | -4.5 23.9 320 21 11 7.3 4.0
12000 -4.1 24.6 330 14 7 9.0 5.0 | -3.5 25.7 315 18 9 8.0 4.4
11500 -2.6 27.3 335 14 7 9.6 5.2 | -2.2 28.0 320 16 8 8.8 4.8
11000 -1.2 29.8 335 14 7 9.2 5.0 | -0.9 30.4 320 14 7 8.5 4.6
10500 0.1 32.2 335 14 7 8.1 4.5 | 0.3 32.5 315 13 7 7.6 4.1
10250 0.8 33.4 335 14 7 11.4 6.2 | 0.9 33.6 315 13 7 10.6 5.8
10000 1.8 35.2 335 13 7 12.0 6.6 | 1.8 35.2 315 13 7 11.3 6.2
9750 2.5 36.5 335 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 2.5 36.5 315 12 6 8.8 4.8
9500 3.2 37.8 335 14 7 9.9 5.4 | 3.2 37.8 315 12 6 9.5 5.2
9250 4.0 39.2 335 14 7 10.1 5.5 | 3.9 39.0 315 12 6 9.2 5.0
9000 4.7 40.5 335 14 7 10.1 5.5 | 4.6 40.3 315 11 6 9.7 5.3
8750 5.4 41.7 335 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 5.3 41.5 315 11 6 10.3 5.6
8500 6.2 43.2 335 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 6.1 43.0 315 11 5 10.1 5.5
8250 6.9 44.4 335 14 7 10.2 5.6 | 6.9 44.4 315 10 5 10.3 5.7
8000 7.7 45.9 335 14 7 10.6 5.8 | 7.6 45.7 315 10 5 10.1 5.6
7750 8.5 47.3 335 14 7 9.7 5.3 | 8.4 47.1 320 10 5 9.5 5.2
7500 9.2 48.6 335 14 7 9.1 5.0 | 9.1 48.4 320 10 5 9.2 5.0
7250 9.9 49.8 335 14 7 10.4 5.7 | 9.8 49.6 320 10 5 10.1 5.5
7000 10.7 51.3 335 14 7 11.5 6.3 | 10.5 50.9 320 10 5 10.8 5.9
6750 11.5 52.7 335 14 7 9.8 5.4 | 11.3 52.3 320 10 5 9.8 5.4
6500 12.2 54.0 335 13 7 9.6 5.3 | 12.0 53.6 320 9 5 9.8 5.4
6250 13.0 55.4 335 13 7 11.1 6.1 | 12.8 55.0 315 9 5 10.7 5.9
6000 13.8 56.8 335 13 7 12.0 6.6 | 13.6 56.5 315 9 5 11.0 6.0
5750 14.7 58.5 335 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 14.4 57.9 315 9 4 9.9 5.4
5500 15.4 59.7 335 12 6 13.1 7.2 | 15.2 59.4 320 8 4 11.7 6.4
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CIN (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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