791  
FNUS71 KBOX 201033  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMP EDWARDS RAW1...NORTHEAST FOREST AND FIRE MANAGAMENT, LLC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
633 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON JUNE 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT,  
THEN MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
TONIGHT, BUT ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 50 PERCENT, AND BETWEEN 60  
AND 65 PERCENT THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
DRY WEATHER FRIDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.  
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THOUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, TOO.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............53.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...76.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 800-2400 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 20  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1300-37600 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 20, THEN INCREASING TO 35 EARLY  
DECREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25 DECREASING TO 15.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........8 10 14 24 34 38 42 40 49 55 58  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............62 67 71 74 76 76 76 76 75 75 74  
DEWPOINT........51 55 55 54 54 54 55 55 54 54 55  
RH..............67 65 57 50 46 46 48 48 48 48 51  
HEAT INDEX (F)..62 67 71 74 76 76 76 76 75 75 74  
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 9 12 15 17 21 22 21 21  
SURFACE WND DIR.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.2 3 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 13  
SURFACE WND GST.7 7 7 9 12 15 17 21 22 21 21  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 6 9 12 14 16 18 18 20 20  
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2  
ADI.............4 4 8 20 30 37 34 39 34 29 21  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 2 6 13 22 27 32 38 29 22 13  
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 15  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............57.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...72.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1900 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................15.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......14 DECREASING TO 7.0, THEN INCREASING TO 14  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........51 58 55 58 61 64 65 66 67 69 72 74  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50  
TEMP............72 70 68 67 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63  
DEWPOINT........56 56 57 57 57 57 57 58 58 58 59 59  
RH..............57 61 68 70 68 70 73 78 78 81 84 87  
HEAT INDEX (F)..72 70 68 67 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 15 14 12 10  
SURFACE WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.13 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8  
SURFACE WND GST.20 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 15 14 12 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 16 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5  
ADI.............19 18 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10009 6 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3  
CEILING (KFT)...15 14 14 14 14 7.0 7.0 15 15 15 15 14  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............58 DECREASING TO 55 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...69.  
SURFACE WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 10  
TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3400-18600 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................14 INCREASING TO 23 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......14 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........72 67 56 44 29 24  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............50 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............63 65 67 69 69 69  
DEWPOINT........59 60 59 58 57 56  
RH..............87 84 75 68 66 63  
HEAT INDEX (F)..63 65 67 69 69 69  
20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 9 N 8 NE 8 NE 10 NE 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 14 13 13 16 16  
SURFACE WIND....SW 8 SW 9 N 8 NE 8 NE 10 NE 12  
SURFACE WND GST.12 14 13 13 16 16  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 600 1400 1900 2100 1500  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 W 9 N 10 NE 10 NE 10 NE 13  
LVORI...........5 4 4 3 3 2  
ADI.............12 10 16 24 26 21  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10003 5 12 17 19 17  
CEILING (KFT)...14 15 15 15 25 25  
 

 
FORECASTER...BELK  
REQUESTED BY...JOEL R. CARLSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1811693.0/BOX  
.DELDT 06/20/18  
.EMAIL JOELCARLSON@NE-FFM.COM  
 
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