682
FXUS61 KBOX 072053
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS
WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.
IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.
WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.
INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.
WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR. LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY. LOW PROB
LLWS COASTAL TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.
MARINE
TONIGHT...WE ISSUED SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY. A PERIOD OF G25 KT
LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT SHOULD
SEE A FEW G25 KT. WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL HIGH
BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.
SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ232>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/MLE
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER
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