851
FXUS61 KBOX 042327
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.
FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS AND WHAT RESULTED... A LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS
AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK'D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.
SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.
STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.
MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
REMAINDER TODAY...VFR. SCT W SFC WINDS G25-30 KT THRU ABOUT 00Z.
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.
MARINE
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. CANCELLED THE SCA ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
NEARSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE TREND IS DOWN. SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW OCNL 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER
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