216  
FXUS61 KBOX 170232  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
932 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LESS WIND SUNDAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE MAY BRING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER ON  
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, THEN TURNING BLUSTERY AND COLDER  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY TRACK  
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX/RAIN  
SOMETIME FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
930 PM UPDATE...  
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SNE WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH  
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE INTERIOR  
AND WILL DO SO ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND  
DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE  
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS, COLDEST IN WESTERN NEW ENG WHERE  
LIGHTEST WINDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO  
TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A  
CHILLY START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 20S  
TO LOW 30S. DESPITE WEAK WAA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY, STILL  
ENOUGH SHALLOW COLD AIR TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL  
BUILD WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING  
HOURS.  
 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WARM  
FRONT EXTENDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO  
OUR NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER  
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING DURING THE LATE EVENING, RADIATIONAL COOLING  
WILL BE LIMITED RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.  
 
INCREASING THREAT-E AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW  
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WITH NOT A LOT OF LIFT, WILL KEEP THE  
POTENTIAL AT A CHANCE FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MON AM  
* LOW RISK FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHERN AND ESP NE MA MON PM  
* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH MILDER TUE  
* BLUSTERY AND COLDER WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WED INTO THU  
* PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/RAIN POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRI AND/OR SAT  
 
DETAILS...  
 
MONDAY MORNING...  
 
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF LINGERING SPOTTY  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING  
WILL SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMS TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH.  
 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...  
 
SOMEWHAT OF A TRICKY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS  
WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH ON MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING  
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH READINGS  
REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. NORTH OF THE MA  
TURNPIKE, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. IN  
FACT, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MESO-LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST  
OF THE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA WHERE SOME  
GUIDANCE HAS READINGS IN THE 20S BY EARLY EVENING. NOT SURE IF  
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIP,  
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR  
FLURRIES IN NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA MON PM. SOMETHING  
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THOUGH GIVEN JUST TRACE AMOUNTS OF SPOTTY  
FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE PROBLEMATIC.  
 
TUESDAY...  
 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, 850T NEAR -2C AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD PUSH  
HIGH TEMPS WELL UP INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN NEAR 50 IN A FEW  
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED  
AS SYNOPTIC FORCING IS LIMITED, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS  
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH  
PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RECOVER WELL  
INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40, BUT A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT  
IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND  
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.  
 
THURSDAY...  
 
MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES BUT WITH LESS WIND THAN ON  
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
30S.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS ALWAYS GIVEN TIME RANGE BUT EVEN MORE  
COMPLICATED BY THE PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A CLASSIC LA NINA  
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., RESULTING  
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THAT REGION. MEANWHILE, ARCTIC AIR WILL BE  
SITTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE  
BATTLE GROUND WITH A WIDE RANGE IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURE OUTCOMES AND  
PTYPES. BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE AN INITIAL WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE APPEARS LIKE IT WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION FRI INTO SAT.  
ASSUMING THAT HAPPENS, PTYPE WOULD EITHER BE MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW/ICE  
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN. OF COURSE A LOT CAN CHANGE  
BETWEEN NOW AND THAT TIME, AND GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE  
GRADIENT THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD  
NOT PUT TO MUCH INTO A DETERMINISTIC FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPANDING FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,  
SLIGHT CHANCE FZDZ.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE FZDZ.  
 
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH AREAS  
GUSTS TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT.  
 
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...W-NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING  
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCA ALL WATERS.  
 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS WITH SEAS BELOW SCA.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO  
30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO  
35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.  
 
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN  
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK/DUNTEN  
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN  
LONG TERM...FRANK  
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN  
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN  
 
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