995
FXUS61 KOKX 100057
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY A VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUDS IN SW FLOW UPPER FLOW. LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL MAKE FOR A DRY A PASSAGE. A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
OUTLYING AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS DENSE AND WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONABLE IN MILD AIRMASS...MAINLY 40S WITH LOWER 50S NY/NJ
METRO.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CDFNT DROPS SWD THRU THE CWA AROUND 12Z. SKIES TO REMAIN BKN-OVC
WITH SIG MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX. LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FCST DESPITE THE CLOUDS. MIXED TEMPS DOWN
FROM H975. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING TO JUST BLW H95 WITH NLY
LLVL FLOW AND WLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS RESULTS IN
TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE WITH NO SUPERS NEAR THE SFC.
RR OF H3 JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN PROVIDES A BIT OF LIFT
TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED. SCHC TO LOW CHC -RA/SPRINKLES. 12Z GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL PROGGING PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY FOR WED AS 1033 PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. 12Z GFS CLIPS THE CWA WITH LGT PCPN. 12Z
ECMWF/NAM/GEM ALL DRY. POPS TRENDED DOWN AND A FURTHER DOWNGRADE
LIKELY IF TRENDS HOLD. SHARP GRAD OF CLOUDS LIKELY FROM NW TO SE.
A NE BREEZE OF 15-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. TEMPS A
BLEND OF MOS AND NAM12. A STORM SOLN CLOSE TO THE GFS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS.
THE HIGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE CLOUD
POTENTIAL WED NGT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S/30S
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE METRO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z MODELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGH WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY...HOWEVER CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY VFR. BEST CHANCE OF MVFR FOG...DESPITE OVC SKIES...AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON...WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND MOISTURE CONTENT IS
HIGHEST. WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
TUE...VFR.
WED-THU...VFR. INCREASING N WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.
FRI...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MARINE
CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE WATERS TUE MRNG. N/NE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN...THRU WED NGT. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS WELL BLW GALE FOR THIS EVENT WITH THE
LOW REMAINING TOO FAR S OF THE REGION. A SCA IS LIKELY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN...LATE TUE NGT AND WED. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WINDS/SEAS MAY
STAY BLW CRITERIA TIL WED MRNG.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WATERS. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. SEAS ABOVE 5 FT WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED MARINE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
SIG PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD ATTM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND OFFSHORE WITH THE HVY RA THREAT FROM THE
REMNANTS OF IDA.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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