244  
FXUS61 KOKX 200826  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
326 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING  
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES  
OF LOWS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION  
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. THE WARMTH WILL BE  
A RESULT OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  
 
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.  
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES ARE OCCURRING AND ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE  
ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN 15Z IF IMPROVEMENTS TO  
VISIBILITIES OCCUR. WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS AWAY FROM  
THE COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE NARRE-TL.  
 
ONE BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH CLEARING  
OCCURS AFTER THE FOG IMPROVES, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE  
NAM AND HIGH RES NAM ARE INSISTENT THAT NO IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A  
STRONG INVERSION. THE GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW  
ENOUGH MIXING ABOVE THE SURFACE TO LIFT ANY FOG AND AT LEAST IMPROVE  
TO A SCATTERED OR BROKEN CEILING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST  
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE INVERSION WILL BE  
STRONGEST FROM THE COLD OCEAN TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG ON  
THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  
 
THE LATEST FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY  
CONDITIONS LEADING TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT HEATING AWAY FROM THE  
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR THE NYC  
METRO, NE NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN  
CONNECTICUT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG  
AND A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST SUPPORTING  
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM SE TO  
NW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE  
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF THE FOG, BUT THINK DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY.  
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IT WILL BE VERY MILD  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE  
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.  
 
THE WARMEST DAY OF 2018 SO FAR IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS  
WHEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS AT ITS STRONGEST WITH  
HEIGHTS AROUND 595DAM AT ITS CORE, WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF  
WHAT IS SEEN DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
ACROSS THE EASTERN US ARE AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL.  
 
THE DAY WILL START WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD  
OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE WITH STRONG HEATING AND BETTER MIXING THAN ON  
TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG AND/LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON  
NEAR THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE AND SE CT.  
 
THE FORECAST HIGH FOR CENTRAL PARK IS 70 DEGREES, WHICH IS THE  
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR EARLY MAY! RECORD HIGHS ARE ONCE  
AGAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST READINGS IN THE  
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPS IN THE  
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A  
SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL HELP STEER A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO  
OUR NORTH, BUT ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND  
A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TRI-STATE AREA. WHILE  
THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY AND NIGHT  
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, IT WON'T BE RAINING MOST  
OF THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, FRIDAY, AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY COULD ACTUALLY END UP DRY  
FOR EVERYONE, BUT WILL LEAVE IN LOWER-END CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR NOW.  
FROZEN PCPN WOULD BE POSSIBLE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING AS AN ELEVATED LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COINCIDE  
WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS TOO  
WARM FOR SNOW, SO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. STILL,  
POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS  
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN LIFTS  
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS MID/LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  
 
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING PUSH  
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE IN THE  
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON FOR NYC/NJ AND NW TERMINALS, POSSIBLY VFR IN  
THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS MAY REMAIN IFR ALL DAY. IMPROVEMENT  
TIME COULD BE FORECAST 1 TO 2 HOURS TOO SOON. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN.  
 
S/SW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FOR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF IN THE AFTERNOON IF  
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. LATE DAY S15G20KT COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT  
POSSIBLE FOR JFK INTO LGA. ELSEWHERE OCCASIONAL SW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20  
KT POSSIBLE. S/SW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING.  
 
LLWS POSSIBLE FOR SW WINDS AROUND 2 KFT AT 35-40 KT INTO THE MORNING  
PUSH.  
   
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT
 
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO, EARLY OR LATER THAN  
FORECAST.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO, EARLY OR LATER THAN  
FORECAST. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO, EARLY OR LATER THAN  
FORECAST.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO, EARLY OR LATER THAN  
FORECAST.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO, EARLY OR LATER THAN  
FORECAST.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: IFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE ALL DAY. AMENDMENTS ARE  
LIKELY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
LATE TONIGHT
 
IFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS/FOG LIKELY.   
WED
 
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR IN  
THE EVENING. SW WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AT  
NIGHT.   
THU
 
MVFR IN RAIN LIKELY. WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE INTERIOR TERMINALS  
AT NIGHT. NE WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.   
FRI
 
CHC MVFR IN RAIN. WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE INTERIOR TERMINALS.   
SAT
 
CHC MVFR IN RAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE WATERS THROUGH 15Z. THE  
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT ON THE OCEAN WATERS  
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST VISIBILITIES IMPROVE THIS MORNING.  
 
OTHERWISE, MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON THE  
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. SEAS SHOULD BUILD ABOVE  
5 FT TONIGHT, SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 11Z WEDNESDAY.  
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT HAVE HELD OFF  
ON GOING THAT FAR OUT FOR NOW. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT FOR DENSE FOG.  
 
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THIS  
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS  
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION  
REMAINING WEAK MOST OF THE TIME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 20, 2018  
 
LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR  
NEWARK..............70/1939  
BRIDGEPORT..........54/1991  
CENTRAL PARK........69/1939  
LAGUARDIA...........63/1943  
JFK.................61/1949  
ISLIP...............62/2016  
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2018  
 
LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR  
NEWARK..............69/1953  
BRIDGEPORT..........59/2002  
CENTRAL PARK........68/1930  
LAGUARDIA...........68/1953  
JFK.................63/2002  
ISLIP...............63/2002  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) IS OFF THE  
AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.  
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-  
078>081-176>179.  
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-  
006-103>108.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-  
338-340-345-350-353-355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS  
NEAR TERM...DS  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...JC  
AVIATION...PW  
MARINE...JC/DS  
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS  
CLIMATE...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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