903
FXUS61 KOKX 060741
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
341 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING HOT BY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MID-WEEK AND PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO
BURN OFF...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTION
UPSTREAM CURRENTLY WANING...DEBRIS ALOFT SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO BURN OFF...FIRST INLAND AND THEN
EVENTUALLY AT THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. THEN...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MODELS CURRENTLY ARE SLOWING LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT A
TEMP/DEW POINT PROFILE OF LOW 80S/LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE SOME AVAILABLE ENERGY. WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND...WHICH WILL MAKE
ANY STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ONLY WORK
TO TRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION. WE WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH CONVECTION BASED MORE ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
BEST CHANCES WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
WITH A LESSOR CHANCE ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
UPSTREAM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT DAMPENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY EACH DAY...WILL
KEEP AN ONGOING POP WHILE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT.
A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY TO 16 TO 17 DEGREES C BY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...A DECREASING
MARINE INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID 80S
ON MONDAY AND AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
FACING SHORES.
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING...MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE REMAINS WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING CELLS. FLOODING MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
REGION WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT E/SE
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS TURN S AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 7-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...EXPECTING
CIGS AND VSBY TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO LIFR OR LOWER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT SUN MORNING WITH
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT BY AFTERNOON. MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS KGON.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT WORKS
NORTH. THEN INSTABILITY TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE
ACROSS KEWR/KTEB/KSWF(SCT TO NUMEROUS)...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
CHANCES TO THE EAST. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ERRATIC WINDS (UP TO 25-30 KT) WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY TSTMS.
CONVECTION DIES DOWN BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR
STRATUS/FOG GRADUALLY RE-DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02 AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO WED. MON THROUGH WED WILL FEATURE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY...AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS IN STRATUS/FOG AT NIGHT.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING...LIFTS
NORTH AND WASHES OUT TODAY. SW FLOW STRENGTHENS MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK BETWEEN SUB TROPICAL HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING ENE.
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS ON THE OCEAN REACHING SCA CRITERIA BY MON
MORNING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT (MON AFTERNOON) AS SW
FLOW IS ONLY 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KT ON MONDAY. WINDS TUE AND WED INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AHEAD
OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
AREA WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD BE ABOVE
SCA LEVEL TUES THRU THURSDAY...SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH SW SWELL HAVING
DEVELOPED.
HYDROLOGY
SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
EARLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT COULD BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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