580  
FXUS61 KOKX 172204  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
604 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT  
TOO FAR AWAY FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BEGIN  
BUILDING DOWN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE  
GETS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THEREAFTER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
**A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS  
OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 11 PM EDT.**  
 
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT. ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY THERE WERE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE  
THE HEAT INDICES WERE 95 TO 99, AND THESE WILL BE LOWERING  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  
MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS  
NORTHWEST OF NYC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL  
LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY  
WINDS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES, SOME STORMS HAVE ALSO THE  
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION ADDITIONAL  
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH, INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED LOWERING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT, PRECIPITABLE  
WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND AS A RESULT ANY THUNDERSTORM  
THAT DO DEVELOPMENT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH  
HEAT INDICES REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
COOLER AND A LITTLE LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION GETS MORE NE FLOW. AIRMASS WARMS UP FOR  
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK, NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH WINDS HAVING MORE  
WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS.  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIST FOR THE CLOSE OF THE  
WEEKEND. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT WITH JET STREAK ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES  
ACROSS MONDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL NOT PROMOTE THE FRONT TO MOVE  
FARTHER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS  
FORMING ALONG IT, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
FORECAST FOR THE REGION, HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.  
 
MORE DRYING TAKES PLACE MONDAY WHEN MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE  
NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN THE  
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALOFT, A LARGE  
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY JET  
AHEAD OF IT. THIS JET MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
HIGHEST CHANCES N/W OF NYC. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES  
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY IS  
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING WARMER AND MORE  
HUMID. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE METRO TERMINALS, BUT  
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCTS THROUGH  
23Z. KTEB IS CLOSEST TO THESE THUNDERSTORMS, SO TSRA BETWEEN  
22Z-23Z IS MORE LIKELY HERE. NO MENTION OF VCTS FOR KJFK AS THEY  
ARE FARTHEST FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LIKELY NOT SEE  
VCTS.  
 
OTHERWISE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST  
TONIGHT, AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVING THIS  
EVENING, MAY HAVE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND SPARSE THUNDERSTORMS  
AFFECT THE NYC/NJ AND NW TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY.  
 
S WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO  
20-25 KT POSSIBLE FOR KLGA/KJFK AFTER 20-21Z. SE SEABREEZES  
POSSIBLE AT KEWR/KTEB BTWN 19Z AND 21Z. S/SW WINDS SUBSIDE TO  
5-10 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS VEER SW/W LATE SAT MORNING INTO  
AFTERNOON.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: SPARSE CONVECTION POTENTIAL, MAINLY AFTER  
00Z. SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: VCTS THROUGH 23Z. SPARSE CONVECTION  
POTENTIAL, MAINLY AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KT  
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: VCTS THROUGH 23Z. SPARSE CONVECTION  
POTENTIAL, MAINLY AFTER 00Z.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINAL THROUGH 23Z. GUSTS  
GREATER THAN 20KT POSSIBLE WITH TSRA. SPARSE CONVECTION  
POTENTIAL, MAINLY AFTER 00Z.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: SPARSE CONVECTION POTENTIAL, MAINLY AFTER  
00Z. TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINAL BETWEEN 23Z-24Z.  
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 KT POSSIBLE IN TSRA.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
SAT AFT
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. W FLOW BECOMING NE SAT EVE.   
SUN
 
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND NE WINDS OF  
8-12KT.  
.MON-TUE..VFR.   
TUE NIGHT-WED
 
CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTM WITH MVFR CONDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING  
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, AND WILL REMAIN BELOW  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST IN  
THE SANDY HOOK LOW LEVEL JET REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY.  
SOME MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS  
WITH OTHERWISE SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL NON-OCEAN  
WATERS. THEN, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE  
FORECAST WATERS EARLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS  
A POSSIBILITY THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR THE  
OCEAN. OCEAN SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, TONIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN FLOODING. THERE IS  
ALSO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG  
TERM.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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