115  
FXUS61 KOKX 200214  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1014 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND  
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES  
WEDNESDAY, PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN  
GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER  
THE LOCAL REGION. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN  
DIRECTION AT TIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPERATURES  
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND KEPT  
NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE FOR EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE RADIATIONAL  
COOLING HAS BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE SO FAR.  
 
LOWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND NORMAL, GENERALLY FROM THE  
MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR  
70 IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE  
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW  
SHOWERS WEST OF NYC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER  
70S, WITH A FEW LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS IN AND AROUND THE NYC  
METRO.  
 
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS  
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME  
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FORECAST MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE  
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z  
NAM WAS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH WELL OVER AN INCH OF QPF. SIDED  
MORE WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE, WITH A GENERAL  
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF  
THE CWA, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND  
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.75 TO  
AROUND 2" WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER AS WELL.  
 
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. MEAN UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE ON THU, WILL GIVE WAY TO  
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE AN UPPER  
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US ON THU/FRI, EVENTUALLY SHEARING NE TOWARDS  
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH  
THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY WILL WORK THROUGH THE  
NE, BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THIS APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING.  
 
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE LATE JUNE  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
TO THE NORTH. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE  
TRACK WELL TO THE NW, WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION  
SATURDAY, AND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, APPEARS TO BE A  
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SITUATION WITH WARM FRONTAL/PREFRONTAL TROUGH  
PASSAGE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, BRINGING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF VERY WARM AND HUMID INTERLUDE ON SUNDAY MAY  
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL.  
 
THEN RETURN TO TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY, MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST  
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.  
 
WINDS N-NE UNDER 10 KT, BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF  
THE NYC TERMINALS. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.   
THURSDAY
 
MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS ENDING, THEN BECOMING VFR.    
FRIDAY
 
VFR.    
SATURDAY
 
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, SAT  
INTO SAT NIGHT.   
SUNDAY
 
VFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS  
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS  
MAY BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MODERATE S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
CURRENTLY FORECASTING 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH BASIN AVERAGE  
RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG  
ISLAND. WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST, THERE IS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER  
CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD  
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY OF URBAN AND KNOWN POOR  
DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY  
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV  
NEAR TERM...BC/JM  
SHORT TERM...BC  
LONG TERM...NV  
AVIATION...19  
MARINE...BC/NV  
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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