948  
FXUS61 KPHI 222150  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
550 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT  
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS WEEKEND.  
OVER OUR REGION, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD STARTING  
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
IT'S A WARM LATE SEPTEMBER DAY AS WE MOVE INTO AUTUMN AT 4:02  
PM. MANY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.  
THE NORMAL AT KPHL IS 76.  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE, WHICH HAS BEEN AROUND A LONG TIME, WILL  
FINALLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. TPC  
BEGAN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON JOSE ON SEPTEMBER 5, 18 DAYS AGO. THE  
70TH ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE TPC THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL  
EXPAND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. H5 HEIGHTS ARE AN IMPRESSIVE  
590 DM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
OTHER THAN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM JOSE ACROSS OUR FAR OUTER  
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THE FORECAST AREA WILL  
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED  
BEFORE JOSE MAKES ITS MOVE OUT TO SEA.  
 
NORTH WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND GO CALM IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL  
DROP BACK TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S  
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN  
ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW. H5 HEIGHTS  
CLIMB TO AT LEAST 588 DM. H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO ABOUT 30 DEG C. AS A  
RESULT, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND  
ADJACENT LOCALES. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD HIT AT LEAST 80. THE  
EXCEPTIONS COULD BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ AND  
AT THE BEACHES.  
 
NO RAIN IS FORECAST. EXPECT LOTS OF BLUE SKY, ESPECIALLY BY LATE  
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND SLACKEN DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT WEAKENING, A SEABREEZE SHOULD  
DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. AS  
A RESULT EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER. WE COULD GET  
CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS AT INLAND LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE  
SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR THOSE DAYS). A LIGHT  
ONSHORE FLOW COULD TEMPER THE WARMING TREND AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. AS IT DOES SO, WE  
COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP, PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN (RAIN  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL STAY WELL TO OUR  
NORTHWEST, AND AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MARIA WILL GET  
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE ANY OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS). AS FOR  
MARIA, IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH (BY A FEW HUNDRED  
MILES) THROUGH THIS PERIOD. PLEASE SEE THE FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE  
TRACK.  
 
THURSDAY...THERE ARE TWO THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FIRST,  
THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR REGION  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THAT WILL BRING US BACK TO NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES  
THROUGH, WE MAY NOT NOTICE IT UNTIL FRIDAY). THE OTHER THING WE WILL  
BE WATCHING IS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF MARIA. THIS IS BEYOND THE 5  
DAYS OF THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST, SO THERE IS  
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT AT THIS POINT, ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE  
SHOWS THE STORM TAKING A RIGHT TURN, FURTHER OUT TO SEA,  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, WE WILL SEE VERY LITTLE  
IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS ASIDE FROM THE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF.  
 
FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. IT  
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS, BUT ONLY  
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR. AS JOSE SPINS OFFSHORE, SOME MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF  
CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE  
I-95 TERMINALS EASTWARD. I DON'T HAVE ANY CLOUD BASES LESS THAN 5K.  
NO ISSUES WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT MAYBE SOME  
GROUND FOG IN THE MOST PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE  
NW-N.  
 
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. LOTS OF BLUE SKY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDENSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND UP TO 10 KT  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT...  
A SCA WILL CONTINUE. THE NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE  
ON THE OCEAN WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE DOMINANT  
LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. SEAS WILL RANGE IN  
THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 3  
FOOT RANGE ON DELAWARE BAY.  
 
SATURDAY...THE SCA ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED. SATURDAY CONDITIONS  
WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY  
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT, A LARGE EASTERLY SWELL, AND SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5  
FOOT RANGE. ON THE DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  
SLACKEN A BIT FROM WHERE THEY'RE FORECAST TO BE TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ELEVATED SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL  
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT  
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING A LULL IN ELEVATED SEAS  
BEFORE THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIA ARRIVE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS  
SEAS INCREASING BY MID DAY, BUT TRENDS WITH RECENT STORMS HAVE  
GUIDANCE SHOWING SWELLS ARRIVING TOO QUICKLY. IF THIS TREND  
CONTINUES, WE MAY SEE A LULL IN ELEVATED SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIA ARE EXPECTED  
TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC  
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY  
WEDNESDAY, BUT IN GENERAL, WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
INTO THE EVENING...LONG PERIOD SWELLS EMANATING FROM POST-TROPICAL  
CYCLONE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND  
NEW JERSEY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A HIGH RISK FOR  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.  
 
SATURDAY...TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS  
THE BEACHES SEE SOME LEFTOVER NE SWELLS FROM JOSE AND THE  
INTRODUCTION TO SOME SMALLER LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM MARIA.  
MARIA'S SWELLS WILL GROW WITH TIME. MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE  
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW.  
 
OUTLOOK...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE LARGER SWELLS ON  
SUNDAY, BUT EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO SWELLS FROM MARIA. SO EXPECT THROUGH AT  
LEAST WEDNESDAY, THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS TO BE MODERATE OR HIGH.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WE ARE STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE AND  
THE NEW MOON. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 3 PM. MINOR  
FLOODING OCCURRED UP AND DOWN THE DE/NJ COASTS...MORE SPOTTY ACROSS  
NORTHERN NJ AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY  
DE.  
 
FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED  
ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF  
THE TWO TODAY BY ABOUT 1/2 FOOT. AS A RESULT, WE DON'T THINK THE  
FLOODING WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAKING A RUN AT 90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
ACROSS THE REGION, SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR  
BROKEN. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE ON MONDAY WHERE ALL LOCATIONS  
BUT GEORGETOWN ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THREE DEGREES OF A  
RECORD.  
 
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR BOTH DAYS.  
 
SUNDAY  
 
ACY-92(2010)  
PHL 95(1970)  
ILG-92(2010)  
ABE-92(1970)  
TTN-92(1970)  
GED-97(2010)  
RDG-95(1970)  
MPO-85(2010)  
 
MONDAY  
 
ACY-91(1970)  
PHL-92(1970)  
ILG-93(1970)  
ABE-92(1970)  
TTN-92(1970)  
GED-92(2010 AND 1970)  
RDG-92(1970)  
MPO-85(1970)  
 
MONTHLY CLIMATE: DEPENDING ON WHETHER THERE IS ANY RAIN AT KILG,  
IF NONE FOR THE EST OF THE MONTH, THE CURRENT MONTHLY TOTAL OF  
1.12 INCHES WOULD RANK 12TH DRIEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD.  
 
SEPTEMBER TEMPS: PHL IS PROJECTING A 71.7 AVERAGE OR 2.6 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE 13TH WARMEST SEPTEMBER  
ON RECORD. ABE IS PROJECTING A 68 DEGREE AVG OR 4.1 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD BE 9TH WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD.  
 
THESE PROJECTIONS TOOK INTO ACCOUNT TODAYS HIGH/LOW, THE PHI  
330 PM FORECAST THROUGH THE 29TH AND A NORMAL HIGH/LOW FOR THE  
30TH.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-  
024>026.  
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY  
FOR ANZ450>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON  
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO 550  
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO  
LONG TERM...JOHNSON  
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO  
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
CLIMATE...550  
 
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