463  
FXUS61 KPHI 191950  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD ALLOW  
HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY. A WARM  
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE  
ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EARLY ON  
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER  
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND FOR THE COMING  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND  
ARE VERY SLOW MOVERS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS HAS LESSENED  
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN.  
A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA  
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH DELAWARE BUT THESE  
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY. NOT  
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER AS WE REMAIN PRETTY  
CAPPED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY BUT AREAS ACROSS DELMARVA AND  
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE MORE SUNLIGHT WAS SEEN TODAY  
MAY BE ABLE TO POP OFF A STORM OR TWO BEFORE THE EVENING IS  
OVER. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND END ACROSS  
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY REMAINS  
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WE  
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY OVERCAST. SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BUT NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE NOT  
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH  
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY.  
EVEN WITH THE WAVES MOVING THROUGH, MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN  
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO PUSH  
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH,  
MAINLY TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  
 
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERLY  
FLOW CONTINUES. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS TODAY BUT STILL BELOW  
NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE  
REGION, IT WILL BE NICE TO SEE THE DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE LOWER  
TO MID 60S THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER  
SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BOTH FEATURES  
WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL  
CANADA. THE SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HELP DEEPEN THE LONG  
WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS  
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A RIDGE  
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO GAIN INFLUENCE OVER OUR  
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  
 
WE ARE EXPECTING AN ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND AS A WARM FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUD COVER DURING THAT PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASING  
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AS  
WELL.  
 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY  
NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND AS A COLD FRONT NEARS  
OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
WE ARE ANTICIPATING LINGERING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE  
FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST OVER THE  
WEEKEND, WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RETURN FLOW.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE  
80S IN OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS  
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER  
70S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND GENERALLY IN THE  
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE THEY CREEP UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRIEF  
RETURN TO MVFR MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO  
PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH, MAINLY AT KABE, KRDG AND POSSIBLY AT  
KTTN, BUT A RETURN TO MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS  
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL AND SOUTH. EAST  
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL  
DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, TAPERING  
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF  
MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR POSSIBLE BY AROUND MIDDAY. VFR MAY  
NOT RETURN FOR KMIV AND KACY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS  
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.  
SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR  
LESS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS  
MAINLY MVFR AND IFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CONDITIONS  
IMPROVING TO VFR. WEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST  
WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND LESS  
THAN 10 KNOTS VEERING GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEW  
JERSEY COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO  
TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS  
MAY OCCUR LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS  
ARE AROUND 5 FEET AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY  
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES MAY BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST INTO THIS EVENING. THE RISK IS  
EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AS THE WINDS AND  
WAVES SHOULD BE LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452-453.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450-451.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO  
NEAR TERM...MEOLA  
SHORT TERM...MEOLA  
LONG TERM...IOVINO  
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA  
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA  
 
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