130  
FNUS74 KMOB 221249  
FWSMOB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR F-8, F-23...E.N.R.  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
749 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON JULY 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE BURN SITE TODAY. THE STRONGER  
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE  
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION VALUES.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4200 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...823-1280 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 2 TO 5 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....19 INCREASING TO 40.  
LVORI...............2.  
STABILITY CLASS.....2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........45 46 51 60 65 62 56 53 52  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 60 70 70 60 50  
LAL.............3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3  
TEMP............83 87 89 90 90 90 90 90 88  
RH..............77 70 64 62 62 62 62 62 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 12  
TRANS WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5  
DISPERSION IDX..16 22 26 25 25 25 29 35 44  
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1900, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
0100, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1400 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...853-1189 METERS AGL DECREASING TO 244-427  
METERS AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 2 TO 6 METERS/SECOND SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
DISPERSION INDEX....48 DECREASING TO 11.  
LVORI...............5.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........50 49 48 48 48 45 40 37 38 40 41 45  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............86 84 82 81 79 78 77 77 76 76 75 74  
RH..............68 72 77 82 88 91 94 94 97 94 97 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9  
MIX HGT (KM)....1.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 12 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3  
TRANS WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W  
TRANS SPD (M/S).6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1  
DISPERSION IDX..48 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6  
LVORI...........2 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5100 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...305-884 METERS AGL INCREASING TO 1158-1554  
METERS AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 14  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 1 TO 4 METERS/SECOND INCREASING TO  
AROUND 6 METERS/SECOND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 41.  
LVORI...............5.  
STABILITY CLASS.....2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........52 55 56 59 61 63 66 67 66 64 63 61  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30  
LAL.............1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............74 75 79 83 87 90 91 91 91 90 90 89  
RH..............100 100 88 77 68 62 60 58 58 62 62 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 13 14 14  
TRANS WIND DIR..W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANS SPD (M/S).1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 6  
DISPERSION IDX..5 12 16 19 22 24 27 30 33 38 42 44  
LVORI...........8 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...29  
REQUESTED BY...JERRY COON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1713157.0/MOB  
.EMAIL JERRY.COON@US.AF.MIL  
 
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