324  
FNUS74 KMOB 251249  
FWSMOB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR EGLIN RX E37...USAF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
749 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A MODERATE TO STRONG MIXED LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY  
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BURN  
SITE INTO AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH  
STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES  
AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE  
GOOD TODAY.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG NOT EXPECTED.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
BECOMING LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1000, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1300, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1600, THEN 16-25  
STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...INCREASING TO 1006 METERS AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 7 TO 11 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 55 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2 TO 4.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........68 71 74 77 80 81 82 88 89 88  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 60 60  
LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4  
TEMP............65 67 69 71 73 74 74 73 72 71  
RH..............90 85 80 76 73 71 72 74 76 79  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 20 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 23  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10  
DISPERSION IDX..29 38 49 53 55 56 55 53 50 47  
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2200, THEN 9-15 STRIKES  
UNTIL 0100, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...213 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 5 TO 9 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....DECREASING TO AROUND 11.  
LVORI...............4 TO 7.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........89 90 87 84 80 77 73 71 71 71 71 71  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 70 70 70 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 30  
LAL.............4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2  
TEMP............69 68 67 67 66 66 65 65 65 64 64 64  
RH..............81 84 87 90 93 96 99 100 100 100 100 99  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 18 16 15 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5  
DISPERSION IDX..43 21 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 11 11 10  
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2900-3100 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...INCREASING TO 884-945 METERS AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 5 TO 7 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 40.  
LVORI...............DECREASING TO 3 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........70 70 69 66 64 62 59 58 56 53 49 45  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30  
LAL.............2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............64 65 66 68 70 72 73 74 74 74 73 72  
RH..............98 97 93 89 85 81 78 76 76 76 78 80  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6  
DISPERSION IDX..10 13 20 27 32 36 36 36 38 38 40 39  
LVORI...........7 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...10  
REQUESTED BY...BRETT WILLIAMS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705187.0/MOB  
.EMAIL BRETT.WILLIAMS.4@US.AF.MIL  
 
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