791  
FXUS62 KKEY 151749  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
CURRENTLY
 
 
THE CUMULUS LINE DEVELOPED LATE MORNING ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA  
KEYS WHICH HAS SPAWNED SEVERAL SHOWERS SO FAR. A THUNDERSTORM HAS  
YET TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE  
THE AFTERNOON IS OVER. CUMULUS LINES HAVE GROWN OVER THE MIDDLE  
KEYS AND IN THE UPPER KEYS FROM ISLAMORADA TO KEY LARGO, BUT HAVE  
BEEN BENIGN. WINDS ALONG THE ISLANDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, WHICH HAS PUSHED THE CU-LINE JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE  
NORTH OF THE LARGE ISLANDS IN THE LOWER KEYS. OVER THE OPEN  
WATERS, CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED AS THE DAY PROGRESSED, WITH ONLY A  
FEW SHOWERS DETECTED.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CU-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LOWER KEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE  
WATERSPOUT PROBABILITY STILL REMAINS LOW AS THE CU-LINE SITS  
MOSTLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT ISOLATED COVERAGE  
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS ALONG LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND  
ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT SURVIVE THE DAY.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA  
ORGANIZING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST A FEW KNOTS STRONGER THAN  
CURRENTLY OBSERVED. BY TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL  
BE SEEN IN THE WATERS OF THE STRAITS, WITH NEAR 10 KNOTS OVER  
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS A HIGH  
AMPLITUDE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND DISRUPTS THE  
ATLANTIC RIDGE YET AGAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SAL PUSHING  
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD IGNITE  
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SAL, AND THEN LIMIT  
CONVECTION THEREAFTER. THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS UNCERTAIN, SO  
NEAR CLIMO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THESE PERIODS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE KEYS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN A COL  
REGION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE, TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND  
RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. OF COURSE, THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT  
WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. DRY AIR IN THE UPPER  
TROPOSPHERE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM  
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND BEGIN TO ERODE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING  
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF  
THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT  
ANY TIME, BUT SHOULD BE CIRCUMNAVIGABLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGHOUT THE  
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
BRIEFLY DRIVE MVFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINAL. AFTER 16/00Z,  
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES IN TO THE  
REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING  
VARIABLE AFTER 16/00Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 82 91 83 91 / 20 30 20 30  
MARATHON 81 93 82 93 / 20 30 20 30  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DEVANAS  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CHESSER  
DATA COLLECTION......BT  
 
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