847  
FXUS62 KKEY 171909  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
209 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
CURRENTLY
 
 
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS, WITH SOME  
CUMULUS OVER THE UPPER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE  
IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE. WINDS HAVE BEEN NORTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS OVER  
THE KEYS, AND NEAR 15 KNOTS ALONG THE MARINE PLATFORMS ALONG THE  
REEF AND NORTH OF KEY WEST. OUT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS A FEW SHIP  
REPORTS INDICATE WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL AROUND MARGINAL ADVISORY  
CRITERIA. KEY WEST RADAR CLEAR OF ANY PRECIPITATION.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVER THE KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO  
RELAX TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER  
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AROUND THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, MAKING ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER OR TWO  
UNLIKELY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER FLORIDA  
STRAITS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,  
WITH WINDS PICKING UP NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY  
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE  
AREA AND THEN BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX  
THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY, AND BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH ANOTHER  
APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL  
WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES  
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN  
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20  
KNOT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN PICKING UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS A  
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE  
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING, DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 72 80 70 79 / - - - -  
MARATHON 72 82 70 81 / - - - -  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
GMZ052>055-072>075.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DEVANAS  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DEVANAS  
DATA COLLECTION......L. KASPER  
 
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY  
 
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