545  
FXUS62 KKEY 300234  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1034 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
CURRENTLY
 
 
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN INTERNATIONAL  
WATERS, BUT NOT WITHIN OUR OFFICIAL COASTAL DOMAIN. WV/IR IMAGERY  
REVEALS INCREASING MOISTURE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH SOME  
WEAKENING CONVECTION OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA, AND HIGH  
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. DEW POINTS ARE IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S. CWOP STATIONS REPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,  
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 10 MPH. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT,  
CMAN STATIONS REPORT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS,  
WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT SAND KEY LIGHT AND PULASKI SHOALS  
LIGHT.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
WITH A MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS  
EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH ECHOS FAR  
OFFSHORE, AND LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS VIA THE 18Z GFS, DECIDED  
TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE, WITH LOWER SHOWER  
COVERAGE DURING THE DAYTIME. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN  
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK,  
WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS NEAR 80, AND INCREASING CHANCES OF  
RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EXPECT PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY, WITH NO ADVISORIES OR  
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BREEZES WILL MODERATE TO 10 TO  
15 KNOT THRESHOLDS OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK. THE  
FLORIDA STRAITS MAY APPROACH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT  
LATE THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MVFR  
CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN  
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST  
WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3,000 FEET  
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1926, THE LOW  
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD  
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH, A RECORD  
WHICH STILL STANDS 91 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST  
DATE BACK TO 1872.  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MCLOVIN  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BS  
DATA COLLECTION......DR  
 
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