255
FXUS64 KMOB 032335
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2009
AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. /29
** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)TAKING A LOOK AT THE
CURRENT ANALYSIS OVER THE CONUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...UPPER TROUGH
STILL PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEX...BUT THE
NORTHERN CONUS/CA PART OF THE TROUGH IS SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA BORDER...BOWING TO THE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES...ALONG THE US/CA BORDER. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...STRETCHING FROM A HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
MEX. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ONCE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...THE WEAK FRONT SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL/GA ATTM. ABOUT THE ONLY WAY TO PICK IT OUT IS LOOK
AT THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...AND LOOP IT TO SEE THE BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
MOVING SOUTH. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY(HAVE A HARD TIME CALLING IT A
FRONT IT'S SO WEAK)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH AXIS' STRETCHING NORTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THIS FIRST WEAK
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE FA TONIGHT WITH NARY A WHISPER. WITH NO REAL
EXCHANGE OF AIRMASSES...EXPECTING TOMORROW'S TEMPS TO BE AROUND
TODAY'S. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS FOR
WEDNESDAY. FOR TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...BOTH
WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH LAST NIGHT'S LOW TEMPS. HAVEN'T DEVIATED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM GUIDANCE OTHER THAN SOME LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT PUSHED SOUTH BY THE CURRENT US/CA ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT(MORE SO
IN THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE). THIS RESULTS IN A DIVERGENCE IN
TEMPS...WITH THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE THE COOLER...DRIER SOLUTION. BOTH
DRY/COOL THE AIRMASS. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND...WHICH IS BORN OUT BY
THE 00Z ENSEMBLES.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY ON)BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHED
THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM IS
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST. WESTERN CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MAINLY DUE TO
THE RESISTANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A BUNCH OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM....DUE TO THIS INCOMING ENERGY BEING WEAKER. BOTH HAVE A
WEAKNESS MOVING NORTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE COMING WEEK AS THIS
ENERGY BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z ISSUANCE)VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 04/0100Z...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 8
KNOTS AFTER 04/1400Z. /22
MARINE
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO
COLDER AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OVER GEORGIA. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RAIN FREE. /22
FIRE WEATHER
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA...STALLING OVER...THEN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY. A
RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
PASSING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BRING
IN DRIER AIR. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 77 50 72 43 / 00 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 55 77 55 73 47 / 00 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 60 73 58 73 54 / 00 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 45 76 42 71 38 / 00 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 47 75 45 70 39 / 00 00 00 00 00
CAMDEN 45 74 42 69 38 / 00 00 00 00 00
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
22/16
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