331  
FXUS64 KMOB 190954  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
454 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,  
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN  
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY COASTAL  
AND WESTERN ZONES. UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN JUST A BIT, WITH A  
COL DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF  
THE TUTT LOW/TROF THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OFFSHORE SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ON  
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TUTT THIS MORNING, AND THESE SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES  
OVER THAT AREA. OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, A WEAK  
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN ZONES  
TODAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THAT AREA. AS A RESULT,  
THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION,  
WITH PWAT'S RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST ZONES,  
TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. IT IS WHERE THE  
DEEPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED (SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES) THAT WE  
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, WITH  
AFTERNOON HEATING, INSTABILITY, AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MOVING  
WEST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TUTT LOW/TROF OVER THE GULF.  
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE  
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT AS A  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
GULF, BUT LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHS  
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS  
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. 12/DS  
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
TUTT UPPER LEVEL LOW  
IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. THIS  
FEATURE TRACKS VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD TO SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA  
COAST BY MONDAY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE,  
POSITIONED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A  
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY DISSIPATES BY  
MONDAY. AS THE TUTT LOW MOVES MORE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA,  
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS TREND HIGHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES  
BY MONDAY. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH NEARLY EQUAL  
CHANCES ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY  
MAY PRESENT PROBLEMS IN SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING.  
 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY 94 TO 97 INTERIOR TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COAST. HEAT  
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-106 IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY'S HIGHS 90 TO  
93 INTERIOR TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S. /10  
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP  
SOUTH TUESDAY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK  
AS GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO LOWER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DEEPENING TROF. AS THIS OCCURS, A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH FROM THE NEW  
ENGLAND STATES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT  
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY, BUT  
COULD BEGIN TO STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY AS  
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST LONGER RANGE GLOBAL SPECTRAL WEATHER  
MODELS.  
 
A TYPICAL AUGUST PATTERN IS MAINTAINED WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER EACH DAY AND LOWER AT  
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PROBABILITIES MAY TREND  
A CATEGORY OR SO HIGHER ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE DAY  
THURSDAY AS APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED LIFT.  
 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INTERIOR NORTH OF THE COAST TO  
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COAST. MAY SEE LOWS SINKING INTO THE UPPER 60S  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF  
THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, LOWS CHANGE LITTLE THRU THE OUTLOOK. /10  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT BEGIN  
TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT  
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT VARIABLE LIGHT WIND  
FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO  
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD FROM THE  
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS  
EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND APPROACH THE  
COAST OR EXTREME NORTHERN GULF, WITH A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST  
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL HOWEVER BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND  
AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 93 75 94 74 / 30 20 40 10  
PENSACOLA 92 77 93 77 / 20 20 30 10  
DESTIN 91 79 90 80 / 20 20 30 20  
EVERGREEN 94 74 97 74 / 20 0 20 10  
WAYNESBORO 93 74 94 73 / 20 10 30 10  
CAMDEN 94 74 96 74 / 20 0 20 10  
CRESTVIEW 95 74 97 74 / 10 10 30 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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