115  
FXUS64 KMOB 240354 AAB  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1054 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. /13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. /13  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2017/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING  
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD  
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
THIS EVENING, AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL  
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL, DRY AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA  
LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH ON  
TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SUNNY  
SKIES ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A MODEST RECOVERY TO OUR AFTERNOON  
HIGH TEMPERATURES. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
RANGING FROM 47 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS, MID 50S ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS, AND UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, RANGING  
FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. /22  
 
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...RAIN REMAINS  
OUT OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL  
NORMALS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEEP  
INTO THE GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING LOWERING THICKNESSES AND  
COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, OVERNIGHT  
LOW TEMPERATURES SINK TO NEAR 40 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MID 40S  
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST. UNDER SUNNY SKIES,  
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WELL BELOW NORMAL.  
WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, A GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT FAVORS OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG  
THE BEACHES. AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY  
LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, A MODIFICATION IN DAYTIME  
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S IS ANTICIPATED. FROM A  
CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT, THURSDAY'S HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL  
BY AROUND 3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. /10  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND ADVANCE EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA  
SOMETIME IN THE LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE  
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON  
TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE, BUT WILL  
CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST  
DURING THE LATE FRIDAY TO LATE SATURDAY TIME FRAME DUE TO  
UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME, AS  
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE.  
 
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AND DRY AIR IS FAVORED TO ARRIVE  
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN  
TRENDING LOWER. HIGHS POTENTIALLY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID  
60S BY NEXT SUNDAY. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOWS AT LEAST  
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND BY NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
NIGHTS. /10  
 
MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE  
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL REBUILD  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR  
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE THROUGH MID WEEK. A LIGHT EAST  
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.  
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. /22  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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