706  
FXUS64 KMOB 260446 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.00Z. COULD SEE A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM  
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE MON MORNING THEN  
SHIFT NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 3 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.  
32/EE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 721 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY  
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION AND TO ADJUST  
POPS A TAD FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES  
DATA CONDITIONS TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR LATER THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST, MAINTAINING  
SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS  
EVENING THEN SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH MON MORNING. 32/EE  
 
MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST  
MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE  
NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY.  
MOST OF THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT A MODERATE OFFSHORE  
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON MORNING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2  
TO 3 FT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MON  
MORNING. 32/EE  
 
AVIATION...  
00Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.00Z. COULD SEE A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM  
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE MON MORNING THEN  
SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 3 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.  
32/EE  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...  
FORECAST NOT EXACTLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE A  
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOWER  
TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR ADVECTION, LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA  
INDICATE A FILLING UPPER LOW THAT IS ABOUT TO ALSO OPEN UP OVER THE  
NW GULF OF MEXICO. A VERY NOTABLE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ON ITS EAST  
SIDE IS ADVECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE  
REGION. WE THINK THIS WILL TEND TO SHUT OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS  
WINDS IN THAT DEEP LAYER GO MORE WESTERLY AND ADVECT THE MOISTURE  
MORE ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. AFTER DARK,  
COOLING OF THE LAND WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FRONT'S  
SOUTHERN PROGRESSION ONCE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT  
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND POINTS FURTHER SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND  
THEN AGAIN IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES  
WILL BE DECIDEDLY LOWER ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL NOT  
BE TOTALLY DRY EITHER. MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL  
REMAIN DRY. LOWS TONIGHT COULD FALL TO NEAR 60 DEG(F) NORTH OF THE  
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR (ESPECIALLY THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF  
WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES OF ALABAMA). HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE  
UPPER 80S. /23 JMM  
 
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...  
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT  
MOVES OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A  
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER  
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEFORE QUICKLY  
MODERATING TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES (BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8 INCHES)  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
OVERALL, I THINK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DURING THE  
SHORT TERM GIVEN (SLIGHTLY) DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.  
STILL, THOUGH, SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED GIVEN  
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE, AND THE CONTINUED  
PRESENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, I SUSPECT WE'LL SEE  
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY. /02/  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
GENERALLY SPEAKING, GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES  
IS LEADING TOWARD BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE  
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  
 
A LARGE-SCALE ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED  
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE, OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO,  
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST  
MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE COUNTRY, LEADING TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING  
SLIGHTLY (OVERALL) AS SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES DECREASING.  
 
QUESTION THEN REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. INCREASED  
SUBSIDENCE, PLUS THE HEAVY RELIANCE ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES, WILL  
LIKELY RESULT IN A LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (BROADLY SPEAKING) FOR  
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LOW-  
LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST,  
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND, WE'LL  
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS OF SEEING SOME DIURNALLY-  
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. /02/  
 
MARINE...  
A COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS AND THEN  
STALLS. SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST THEN EAST TO NORTHEAST  
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INCREASE A BIT INTO THE 8 TO 13 KNOT RANGE.  
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND  
RAINSHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT  
THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. /23 JMM  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page