736
FGUS72 KTAE 081955
ESFTAE
ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-
129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-
155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-092000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON APR 8 2024 /255 PM CDT MON APR 8 2024/
...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
OVER THE LAST TWO TO FOUR WEEKS, RAINFALL HAS BEEN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. FURTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL. EVEN
WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL CONDITIONS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL LEVELS OR
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVERINE FLOODING SHOULD HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCUR.
FORECAST AND OUTLOOK
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND EXIT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING THE TIME OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF OCCURRING IN URBANIZED AREAS AS
WELL AS LEADING TO RIVERINE AND CREEK FLOODING IN SOME OF OUR MORE
VULNERABLE BASINS IN THE DAYS AHEAD, LIKE THE PEA RIVER, THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER, THE KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS, THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OR A LEVEL 3 OF 4 RISK.
THIS NOT ONLY INDICATES INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
ALSO AN INCREASE IN SEVERITY OF FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS WITHIN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO
PREPARE IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING OR
RIVERINE FLOODING. FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. IF
YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD ZONE, KNOW YOUR RISK AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCUR.
FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTPS://WEATHER.
GOV/TALLAHASSEE
GODSEY
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