832  
FXUS62 KCAE 300724  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
324 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MOISTURE RETURN, DAYTIME HEATING, AND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL  
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT  
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING, PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,  
POSSIBLY SEVERE. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ENSURING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.  
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US MONDAY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
EARLY MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW  
OVER KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
ARKANSAS AND TEXAS WHILE A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS  
TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COASTAL  
STRATUS HAS EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED  
WITH MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEAK RIDGING DOWN THE EAST  
COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH  
LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.  
 
DESPITE MORNING CLOUDINESS, EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK WHEN THE  
INVERSION BREAKS AND STRATUS DECK WILL TRANSITION TO  
STRATOCUMULUS OR CUMULUS AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE AND  
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES  
AROUND -5C AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. HI-RES MODELS  
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION  
OCCURRING AROUND 18Z-19Z AND EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR IS NOT GREAT  
BUT COULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CONVECTION THAT INITIATES IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION.  
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -14C AND WETBULB ZERO  
HEIGHT AROUND 10KFT WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT  
ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE  
FORECAST ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR  
WEST.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE CHALLENGING TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS  
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF QUITE WARM IN THE LOWER  
60S. JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSHINE AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK  
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH  
LOWER 80S IN THE CSRA. DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY AND WHERE CONVECTION  
INITIATES, THAT MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AS WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AND SEVERE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE FRONT TO BEGIN  
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. THOUGH SOME DIURNAL STABILIZATION EXPECTED,  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE SHEAR  
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS OUR FA IN A MRGL  
TO SLGT RISK OF SEVERE. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE CONUS SAT/SUN, WHILE SURFACE  
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, ENSURING FAIR WEATHER FOR  
OUR FA. GFS/EC INDICATE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT AND  
MOISTURE RETURN TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MON/MON NT INTO TUE TIME FRAME, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE  
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
24 HR FORECAST PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUING  
TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND EXPECT  
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER ALL TERMINALS BY 08Z RESULTING  
IN MVFR CIGS. TEMPORARY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 09Z-13Z ALONG WITH  
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER. WINDS STAYING  
UP DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INHIBIT LOWER VSBYS.  
 
A WEAK WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE  
MIDLANDS TODAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AFTER 16Z.  
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS  
BECOMING NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.  
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LOCATION  
AT THIS POINT PREVENT INCLUSION OF RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.  
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONTS CROSS THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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