294  
FXUS62 KCAE 300344  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1044 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE  
AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND  
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXIT  
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED THE MAIN  
SHORT WAVE ACROSS KY/TN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVERNIGHT.  
CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE LINES OF LIGHT SHOWERS  
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE ERN CWA AND ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN OFFSHORE.  
 
AS THE SHORT WAVE/MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH LATER  
TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE  
MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE  
BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE  
COAST BY MORNING. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME  
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE  
MAIN COLD FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE  
MIDLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE AREA  
TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95  
TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH THE REGION LATER  
TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL  
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE  
HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES  
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND  
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO  
RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...AROUND  
MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR  
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN  
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A  
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL  
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE  
20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE  
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED  
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE  
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS  
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE  
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID  
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK  
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK  
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT  
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW  
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR  
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF  
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT  
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.  
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO  
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING  
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN  
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC  
GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD  
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE  
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE  
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO  
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN  
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS  
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE  
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS.  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY  
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
77  
 
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