711  
FXUS62 KCAE 311042  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING  
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE  
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE  
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE  
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG  
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE  
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING  
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE  
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS  
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS  
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL  
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER  
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF  
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE  
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE  
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED  
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A  
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN  
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS  
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP  
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL  
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE  
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND  
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE  
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE  
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL  
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00  
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE  
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.  
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND  
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER  
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN  
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT  
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER  
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO  
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW  
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG. SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A  
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY  
NORTHWESTWARD. HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY  
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF  
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A  
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS  
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL  
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO  
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE  
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT  
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF  
THE ATLANTIC.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
77  
 
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