895  
FXUS62 KCAE 051824  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
224 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE  
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CROSS  
THE REGION WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL  
EXISTS FROM THESE CELLS AND A COUPLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED  
FROM NORTH OF THE CAE AREA THUS FAR WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS  
DEVELOPING AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL  
HAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TO AROUND  
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND  
THE WINDS PERSISTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS  
THAN OPTIMAL. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER  
OUTLYING AREAS SEEING THE MID 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE  
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE  
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER  
TO MID 70S.  
 
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE  
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION  
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME  
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH  
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A  
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST  
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY  
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.  
 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH  
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA  
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO  
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE  
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK  
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL  
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER  
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST  
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION  
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE  
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND  
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6  
KFT REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...HOWEVER THESE ARE  
NOT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GUSTY  
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY  
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO AGAIN  
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS CONTAINED TO THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN AROUND 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS  
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL  
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM 06/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MP  
NEAR TERM...MP  
SHORT TERM...HC  
LONG TERM...HC  
AVIATION...MP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page