422  
FXUS62 KCAE 290549  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1249 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA  
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN  
MAY DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS  
CURRENTLY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S AT 8PM.  
AVERAGE OF TWO LOCAL RADIATION SCHEMES GIVES 24 AT CAE. IDEAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING MIGHT BE TEMPERED JUST A TAD BY THE POSSIBILITY  
OF SOME SCT THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT SATELLITE AND MODELS  
SUGGEST COULD STREAM IN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NW. UPDATED TO LOWER  
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE...GENERALLY MID 20S EXPECTED. UPPER  
TEENS TO NEAR 20 POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING  
LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 20S IN LAKE SHORE AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY  
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
DEPARTING HIGH. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED  
COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE  
OVER THE AREA SHOULD YIELD A JUMP IN TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY OR  
TWO WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN  
MIDLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN THE CSRA. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH DUE TO THE CONTINUED  
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD  
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON  
SUNDAY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE  
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WHILE THE NEXT  
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON  
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA  
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN BEHIND  
THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK WITH DEEPER MOISTURE  
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE LOW POPS.  
MODELS DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE  
WEDGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE  
HIGH. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING COOLER BUT STILL REMAINS MUCH WARMER  
THAN THE GFS. BLENDED IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BUT AM  
PROBABLY STILL TOO WARM. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING  
ON WEDNESDAY AND ERODES THE WEDGE...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WEDGE IN  
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH SIGNIFICANT  
MODEL DIFFERENCES...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS OVER THE TAF SITES. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CUB WHERE MVFR HAS DEVELOPED AND  
WILL ERODE BY 07Z.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION  
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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