533
FXUS62 KCAE 091131
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LEE TROUGHING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE..PRECIP WATER AROUND 2.00
INCHES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO WARM SLIGHTLY BUT AIRMASS
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS POPS WERE NEAR 30
PERCENT. WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS EVENING...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR NOTED IN THE PEE DEE REGION...SUPPORTING SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD LIKELY
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE BUT SUPPORT SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS
BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE GFS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME SURFACE TROUGHING DURING MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WEAK CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND HEATING SUPPORTED A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATED TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY THIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIME SECTIONS
RATHER MOIST AND EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z AND SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z. WITHOUT A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HAVE JUST
MENTIONED CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SCT RESIDUAL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TONIGHT AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/OGB.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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