581  
FXUS62 KCAE 011216  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
816 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION  
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG  
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE  
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY  
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST ABOUT OVER THE CITY  
OF COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT  
OF BRIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW  
MIXED IN WITH THE RAINFALL. THIS IS BEING VERIFIED BY LOOKING OUT  
OF THE OFFICE WINDOW. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS RAINFALL WITH SOME  
SNOW MIXED IN...BUT SOME AREAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF ALL SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING.  
THIS MAY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH...ON  
GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ROADWAY TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE  
FREEZING. OF NOTE...WITH THIS SNOW OVER COLUMBIA...THIS NOW THE  
EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR THE CITY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL  
CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/CSRA THIS  
MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT QUICKLY  
EASTWARD AND OFF THE SC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH  
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A  
GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT  
COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS  
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS  
MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND TRAFFIC CAMS FROM THE UPSTATE INDICATE  
SNOW FALLING IN/AROUND THE GREENVILLE AREA WITH BRIGHT BAND OF  
PRECIPITATION AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE MAINTAINED  
THE MENTION OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FAR WESTERN  
MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME.  
BELIEVE THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE  
COLDER TEMPERATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE  
BETTER MOISTURE. MORNING MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS H850 TEMPERATURES  
ALREADY AT OR BELOW 0 DEGREES C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SC.  
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES ACROSS NRN GA/ERN TN AND ACROSS  
WRN NC. THIS IS ACTUALLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODELS  
RUNS. EXPECT THESE IMPRESSIVE H850 TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO  
MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP  
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AT CAE ALONG  
WITH A TEMPERATURE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZE FROM AROUND 1K FT UPWARD  
AT 9 AM. THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW  
CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING A  
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR GRAUPEL TO THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
EXPECTED AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO MENTION OTHERWISE.  
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH  
THE EVENT.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY  
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO  
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM  
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE  
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO  
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE  
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS  
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.  
WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70  
DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN  
RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH  
RUNS FROM 4 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED  
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED  
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH  
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE  
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT  
WHICH WILL PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING  
BY KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT  
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE  
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. A  
FEW COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER  
30S...BUT MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION.  
 
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL  
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. THIS  
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TREND IN MODEL  
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN TO LOWER  
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO  
FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY RECORDS  
WILL BE BROKEN...BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE RECORDS FOR  
AGS AND CAE.  
 
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST  
ADVISORY...BUT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...IT  
LOOKS LIKE A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. HAVE OPTED NOT TO  
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...BUT A FREEZE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED LATER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST  
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL  
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST  
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE  
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT  
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT  
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND  
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND  
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED  
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER  
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.  
 
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY  
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL  
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  
EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON  
BECAUSE OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.  
PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO OCCURRING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES  
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL HELP CAUSE WET SNOW  
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. DIMINISHING UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AND SLIGHT  
DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHED THREAT OF SNOW LATER  
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS  
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS  
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.  
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO VFR  
CONDITIONS. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE DRY RIDGE MOVES  
INTO THE AREA.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
JUST A FEW CLIMATE NOTES FOR THE PERIOD...  
NEW RECORD...THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL...NOT MEASURABLE  
SNOWFALL...AT COLUMBIA IS NOW NOVEMBER 1ST 2014.  
 
OLD RECORD...THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL...NOT MEASURABLE  
SNOWFALL...AT COLUMBIA WAS NOVEMBER 9TH 1913.  
 
THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 19TH  
1901 WHEN 3.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.  
 
LOOKING AT THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY  
MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE NOVEMBER 3RD.  
 
THE RECORD LOW AT COLUMBIA IS 27 DEGREES SET IN 1963 AND 1954.  
THE RECORD LOW AT AUGUSTA IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1954.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-  
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
SCZ018-020-021-025>028-030.  
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-  
077.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
GAZ040-063>065.  

 
 

 
 
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