412  
FXUS62 KCAE 200242  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1042 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC/GA COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE  
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE  
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A  
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF GA  
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS  
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME SHOWERS  
REPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF  
SC AND GA...WITH A FEW STRIKES NOTED AROUND THE CHS AND MYR AREAS.  
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL EXPECT  
LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPECT TO RAINFALL...HOWEVER WITH THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL  
SEE THE WINDS INCREASE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND A BIT HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY  
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREA LAKES FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11  
PM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE  
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER  
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED  
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC  
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND  
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE  
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR  
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM  
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE  
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND  
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR  
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD  
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH  
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S  
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.  
 
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST  
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION  
WILL HOLD OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES  
THROUGH 13Z...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3 MILES.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 05Z AND  
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 13Z. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH  
THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER  
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD  
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-  
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.  
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-  
077.  

 
 

 
 
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