541  
FXUS62 KCAE 261538  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA  
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED  
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY  
WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE  
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
EARLIER AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. CURRENT  
MESOANALYIS INDICATES A DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA (FA)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES  
NORTH TO 1.8 SOUTH. WEAK NVA PROJECTED FOR OUR FA TODAY AS WEAK  
IMPULSE PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
DEPICTING A GENERALLY DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR FA. BEST  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE LATEST HRRR MODEL  
GENERALLY RESTRICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY  
SOUTH OF OUR FA. A FEW BRIEF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE FA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO  
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TONIGHT...ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST  
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ONE BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS GENERALLY PUTS THE REGION UNDER A FLAT RIDGE  
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  
 
FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF  
THE LOWER MID-WEST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST  
COAST TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...MAINLY  
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP  
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE DAY  
SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS. GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT  
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP...WITH READINGS IN THE  
UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE MAIN FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND  
SHOULD MOVE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY  
NIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN SO...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE  
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  
 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO  
SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP  
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WHICH SHOULD  
RESULT IN SOME QUITE PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE  
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD  
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND KEEP  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN BRINGING  
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
EARLIER FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED. VFR EXPECTED TODAY.  
WEAKENING FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
TERMINALS TODAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SUN.  
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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