644  
FXUS62 KCAE 242342  
AFDCAE  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
742 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE  
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS  
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER  
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. DRY SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. KEPT OVERNIGHT  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS A WEAK TROUGH  
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE QUITE  
LIMITED...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF NEW  
ENGLAND. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT WARMING  
TREND. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON COOL MET MODEL BIAS  
LAST FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-  
RANGE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT  
THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH  
AMPLIFIES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN STATES. LATEST GFS  
ENSEMBLE BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY AND WARMING AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AHEAD OF THE  
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 04Z.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION. LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS 09Z-12Z...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE  
ATTM.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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