541  
FXUS62 KCAE 100128  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
828 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A  
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE  
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE  
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER  
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING SNOW  
FLURRIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN  
AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 0130Z. NO ACCUMULATION OR  
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG THE  
NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS AT LANCASTER AND CHERAW  
CURRENTLY 10 DEGREES WHEREAS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AT  
NEWBERRY AND WINNSBORO DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND  
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  
ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME  
TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA  
LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE  
TEENS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W  
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED  
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED  
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE  
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO  
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO  
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER  
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.  
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A  
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION  
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS  
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.  
 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR  
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH  
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.  
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH  
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-  
063>065-077.  
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-  
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.  
 

 
 

 
 
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