933  
FXUS62 KCAE 040719  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW  
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN  
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH  
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S  
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.  
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT  
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE  
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING  
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO  
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH  
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON  
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER  
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER  
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER  
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS  
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN  
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE  
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS  
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH  
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR  
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME  
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF  
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH  
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST  
15 TO 20 KNOTS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY  
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.  
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE  
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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