432  
FXUS62 KCAE 271136  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
636 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND  
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS  
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND A SERIES OF  
FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE  
NORTHWEST...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOWER CLOUDS  
DISSIPATING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR  
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BUT A BAND OF  
CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE  
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP  
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK BUT AS THE CLEARING OCCURS THEY SHOULD DROP  
A BIT. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDED SOME  
FOG TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.  
 
BROAD CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY AND  
TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES  
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH...THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.  
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL  
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID  
40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. DRY  
WEATHER TONIGHT AND LOWS AGAIN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S AND LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER NEW  
ENGLAND AND RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT WITH CAD WEDGE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE SHALLOW  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT  
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE  
REGION. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REMAINING OPERATIONAL  
MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN  
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY AND LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF SOME  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME  
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN  
THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  
 
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50  
BUT WILL BE CUTTING THOSE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO DEVELOPING  
WEDGE CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER  
30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE PERSISTENT  
COLD WEATHER WE HAVE ENDURED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO A  
WARMING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL  
ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND PUSH A  
FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES  
ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WE SHOULD SEE QUITE THE WARM UP. NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS SURGE INTO THE 70S. THE  
WEATHER MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WAVES OF  
ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW IMPACTING THE REGION BUT THESE  
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT HANDLED  
WELL BY THE MODELS SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE  
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE  
ENTIRE TIME.  
 
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS  
THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY ON  
WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG...WARM  
AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY CREATING  
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE OBSERVED IN  
QUITE A WHILE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE  
FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. IN  
FACT...CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD  
SEVERE WEATHER BUT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LINGERING SCT TO BKN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASES  
GENERALLY AROUND 040. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO FOG  
POSSIBLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM.  
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NW WILL SHIFT EAST  
SLIGHTLY TODAY. N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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