305  
FXUS62 KCAE 261015  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
615 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL  
MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WEEK, THOUGH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID TO  
LATE NEXT WEEK, AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, POSSIBLY TROPICAL,  
COULD INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. AT  
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS KEEPS THE  
CWA IN A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN. MODELS DO INDICATE  
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE-SIDE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,  
WHICH COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY AID IN A  
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT  
APPEARS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THOUGH, MORE ALONG  
THE PIEDMONT. PLAN ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY  
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
NORTHEAST PROMOTING ONSHORE FLOW. THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE  
APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA, SO CONTINUED TO  
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH  
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPPER  
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY  
BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING  
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THEREFORE,  
CONFIDENCE REGARDING IF AND HOW THIS DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE  
FORECAST NEXT WEEK IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR  
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH  
POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT, WHILE SURFACE  
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE CSRA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT  
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS  
WILL PICK UP FROM THE EAST AGAIN AFTER 15Z WITH GENERALLY SHALLOW  
MOISTURE AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE MAY BE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND  
FOG ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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