662  
FXUS62 KCAE 220202  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1002 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL  
INTERACT WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE/WED  
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER OF THE NORTHERN  
MIDLANDS AND ALSO IN EASTERN GEORGIA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO  
DIMINISH AND SHIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NORTHERN  
MIDLANDS BY MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER, SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CSRA MAY  
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND  
ISENTROPIC LIFTING WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC  
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.  
 
THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/GA WILL CONTINUE TO  
MEANDER NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS  
TO THE CSRA AROUND DAWN TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES OFFSHORE OF  
THE CAROLINAS WITH TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEPER  
MOISTURE APPEARS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF COASTAL  
REGION TUESDAY. AIR MASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  
ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPEARS WEAK GUIDANCE POPS SUGGEST  
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2  
INCHES CONTINUES THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE A  
TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
CONVECTION MAY BE MORE LIMITED LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS  
THE WEST AND NORTH CWA WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
BUT STILL FAVOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN WEAKLY TO  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  
 
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WITH WEAK UPPER LOW STILL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, A  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONGER  
RANGE MODELS STILL TRYING TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK  
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT IN REGARDS  
TO ANY POTENTIAL TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED  
WEST TO WEST COAST FLORIDA. GEM MODEL IS SIMILAR TO ECMWF WITH A  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE  
BOTTOM LINE REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION IS A CONTINUED  
SOMEWHAT WET PATTERN WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION  
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO  
HAVE AN EFFECT ON TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST  
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
LIGHT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
SUGGESTS CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS ADD  
CONFIDENCE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. A 15 TO 20 KT  
LOW LEVEL JET SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED BUT STILL  
SOME FOG POTENTIAL IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT OGB GIVEN THE HIGHER LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG EASTERN SC AND AT FOG-PRONE AGS.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AROUND DAYBREAK AS A WEAK  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD, STRETCHING INTO EASTERN  
GA. ADDED VCSH TO THE AGS AND DNL TAFS BEGINNING 13Z. DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE  
PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT PERIODS  
OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,  
MOST LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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