540  
FXUS62 KCAE 212350  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE  
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MIXING OVERNIGHT  
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECT  
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS  
CONSISTENT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY  
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY  
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY  
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A  
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.  
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE  
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING  
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR  
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING  
BRINGING A FEW STRATO-CU TO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS  
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SKIES  
BECOME CLEAR. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT  
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE  
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
 
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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