032  
FXUS62 KCAE 300245  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE  
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL  
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL  
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH  
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE  
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED  
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH  
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL  
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN  
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A  
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL  
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE  
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE  
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM  
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS  
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT  
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE  
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD  
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING  
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND  
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR  
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT  
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN  
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH  
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON  
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE  
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH  
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO  
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON  
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH  
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN  
HOURS.  
 
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA  
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT  
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE  
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG  
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE  
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR  
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH  
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER  
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT  
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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