039  
FXUS62 KCAE 290230  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE ISOLATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE BETTER CHANCE  
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND  
OFFSHORE. BEST DYNAMIC TONIGHT REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.  
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES PUSHING ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN CSRA, AND THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THIS COULD  
BRIEFLY BRUSH THE EXTREME WESTERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER, MAJORITY OF  
THE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARM. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL  
JET TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP, AND LOW-LEVELS MIXED.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A  
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION AS A FEW  
SHORTWAVES SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK ON  
FRIDAY...SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN  
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE CHANCES  
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING  
OVER THE WEEKEND. THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...INCREASED  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE  
VICINITY SHOULD BE A MUCH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAN THE  
AREA HAS SEEN IN AWHILE. CHANCE POPS MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAK COLD ADVECTION NOTED FRIDAY  
ALTHOUGH MAY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SLIGHT DECREASE IN  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL  
FOR LATE JULY. ALSO OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE  
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS  
MAIN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL U.S. AND TROUGH  
LINGERS ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SUPPORT  
A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION AND  
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING PROMOTES CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED EACH DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A  
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.  
 
MODELS INDICATE A 30 TO 35 KT LLJ TONIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW  
LEVEL MIXING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY SW AROUND 5 KTS THROUGHOUT  
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRY AIR WILL PREVENT FOG/STRATUS  
FORMATION.  
 
FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS A FEW  
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL US. INCREASED  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WILL  
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED  
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVELS SUGGESTS ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE WEAK AND ISOLATED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW  
THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES. EXPECT W/WSW  
WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 KTS. LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER GUSTS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CAPPED THE TAFS AT 20 KTS GIVEN THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT MAY BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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