210  
FXUS62 KCAE 021431  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1031 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH  
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF  
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD  
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND  
CSRA.  
 
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS  
MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS  
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT 14Z.  
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  
 
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL  
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND  
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL  
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS  
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
 
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE  
TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL  
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND  
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA  
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE  
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS  
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100  
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW  
DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US  
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE  
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT  
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S  
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT CAE/CUB. MORNING FOG/STRATUS  
AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB LIFTING. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY  
16Z.  
 
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR NORTH AND  
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A DRY AND CAPPED  
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. AN  
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH  
POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION  
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOG/STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...  
 
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.  
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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