695  
FXUS62 KCAE 301218  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
818 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A  
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING CHANCES  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH  
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN  
MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL  
GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET  
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS TONIGHT  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-  
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE  
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING  
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES CHANCE POPS.  
EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.  
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR  
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE  
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO  
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE  
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z... THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CAE/CUB/OGB WHICH WILL ERODE  
AND RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH  
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY  
AT CAE/CUB/OGB. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW  
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS  
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET  
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL  
BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
99  
 
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