080  
FXUS62 KCAE 272326  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
726 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH  
FRIDAY. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR  
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A  
STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR  
ADVECTION OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE  
DEE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT AREA INTO THE EVENING. COULD  
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS  
AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY  
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT  
WITH SOME FOG IN THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY....WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA).  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND  
A WEAK CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER  
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE  
SE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE AND  
OLD SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH TO GRADUALLY DRIFT  
NORTH INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH LATEST MODEL  
RUNS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING WITH MOISTURE INCREASE...AND  
MAINLY RELEGATING BEST MOISTURE TO THE S AND W FA...AND  
MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE N FA...AS SURFACE HIGH  
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN  
CAROLINAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING  
CENTERED TO OUR E AND SE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE  
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY. SO...WILL MAINTAIN TREND TOWARDS  
INCREASING POPS.  
 
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR  
WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E AND SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME  
PERIOD WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST  
FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT TO A LOW END  
HURRICANE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT DRIFTING TO THE NORTH OR  
NE THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING IMPACT  
FOR OUR FA...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT  
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS  
AND FOG LATE. STRATUS IS FAVORED INSTEAD OF FOG BECAUSE OF WIND.  
USED THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE TIMING OF MVFR AND IFR  
CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT DURING THE  
DAY. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM MOS TIMING BECAUSE THIS GUIDANCE  
DID BETTER THE PREVIOUS DAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY  
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
99  
 
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