705  
FXUS62 KCAE 300851  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
451 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SC COAST  
NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON THIS MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS  
WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
TD BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS  
AND CSRA THROUGH TODAY AS IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.  
MORNING RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY  
OF CHARLESTON/GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES  
TO FEED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE UP INTO EASTERN NC. BUT  
ADDITIONAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MIDLANDS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT  
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT SOME  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. BEST  
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE  
REGIONS. FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...TOWARDS THE CSRA POPS  
WILL BE LOWER. BY TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING FURTHER OFF  
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO PUSH NORTHEAST  
ALONG WITH THE THE LOW. GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO  
CONSENSUS. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CSRA WITH MORE  
SUN/LESS RAIN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE PEE DEE.  
TONIGHT...HAVE ONCE AGAIN STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT  
LOWS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL  
TREND WITH ANY RAINFALL AS REMNANTS OF BONNIE ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NC. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN  
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO  
GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN  
ASSOCIATED WITH BONNIE WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME WEAK RIDGING  
WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
THEN FOR THE WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST/PLAINS STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE  
CONTINUED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS TO PRODUCE A CUTOFF LOW AS THE  
SRN SECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWS AND CUTS OFF. EXPECT A DIURNAL  
PRECIP TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
FRONT MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION...EXPECT AND INCREASING CHANCE OF  
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY CLOSE TO  
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH READINGS GENERALLY AT OR  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE CENTRAL SC  
COAST, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE UP THE COAST.  
CURRENT RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE CSRA, AGS/DNL, WITH  
MVFR CIGS JUST NE/E OF CAE/CUB, WITH IFR AT OGB AND POINTS EAST.  
TRENDS SUGGEST CONTINUED VFR FOR AGS/DNL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR  
POSSIBLE AT CAE/CUB, AND CONTINUED IFR CIGS AT OGB THIS MORNING.  
GRADUAL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING COULD  
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION, APPEARING TO MAINLY FAVOR  
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA. FOR NOW, WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR  
CAE/CUB/OGB. THREAT OF FOG OR CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY AFTER 06Z.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND CIG  
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THURSDAY. BETTER CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...77  
NEAR TERM...77  
SHORT TERM...77  
LONG TERM...77  
AVIATION...99  
 
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