127  
FXUS62 KCAE 310233  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MID TO  
LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER  
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST  
TONIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE TN/GA/AL BORDER WILL BUILD INTO  
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE INDICATED  
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S WHICH ARE  
NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN  
STATES...RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EARLY TUESDAY WILL SLIP  
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. FRONT  
HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO  
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SO TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. MOS POPS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS IN  
THE CSRA REGION ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES  
MODERATE AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD  
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. EAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP AND  
SOME CLOUDS MAY ADVECT INLAND. GUIDANCE MAY BE A TAD WARM DUE TO  
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE  
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS  
MOISTURE ALONG WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT/ISENTROPIC LIFT  
SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE  
COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT  
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...NAM  
MODEL MOST UNSTABLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.  
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING  
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS  
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.  
 
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR  
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN  
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
DRYING SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
 
THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN/COOLER BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR  
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AN INVERSION WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 7 KNOTS  
AROUND 15Z...THEN INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 11 KNOTS  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DRY  
AIR IN PLACE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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