396  
FXUS62 KCAE 181037  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
637 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY  
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, AS SOME DRIER  
AIR WILL ENTER NORTHERN AREAS. THE FRONT WILL SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER  
SOUTH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
AREAS. AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH INCREASING  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO  
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ENTER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND  
REDUCE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH  
WESTERN NC INTO CENTRAL TN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH  
THIS MORNING AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA  
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PUSHING EAST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME  
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, BY MID  
AFTERNOON, STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AGAIN YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS  
AND EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION TO INITIATE.  
 
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LOWER  
CHANCES TO THE NORTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE  
REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW BUT CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT, WHEREAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO ABUNDANT  
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOW STORM  
MOTION FAVORS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE FRONT WILL SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY, WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL FA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER ENERGY INDICATED THURSDAY AS  
OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REGIME IN BETWEEN  
UPPER TROUGHINESS OFFSHORE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE  
SOUTHERN FA, WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THERE PER MODEL CONSENSUS.  
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH UPPER  
ENERGY MOVING NE FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST. A  
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT,  
SHIFTING MOISTURE AND FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. BEST POPS  
WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH  
GFS AND EC INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO CUTOFF TO OUR NORTH SAT/SUN.  
BEST MOISTURE INCREASE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY, ALONG WITH AN  
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN PLAY FOR  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS/EC INDICATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS  
NEAR OUR REGION BUT SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARDS TO  
EXTENT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, WILL  
CONTINUE TO BLEND LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ONGOING FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR TAF FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION  
AND WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THICKER  
HIGH CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME MVFR  
FOG TO DEVELOP AT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE  
AN HOUR OF POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT CAE/CUB. SOME IFR STRATUS HAS  
DEVELOPED AT OGB AS WELL SO WILL CARRY THAT THROUGH 14Z THEN  
BRING CIGS BACK TO VFR.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES THEN  
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED  
CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IMPACTING OGB/AGS/DNL  
SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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