330  
FXUS62 KCAE 261030  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE  
NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST  
THROUGH TONIGHT. A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART  
OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE  
WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS HELPED CAUSE  
AREAS OF STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD  
DISSIPATE THIS CLOUDINESS LATER THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING AND SHALLOW  
MOISTURE. FORECASTED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART  
BECAUSE OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFUSE  
FRONT. A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY ALSO HELP SUPPORT A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE  
RECENT BIAS AND UPPER RIDGING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE  
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING  
CONTINUING TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, STRONG  
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INTO A DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH  
SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS  
SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE  
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION CLOSER TO  
DEEPER MOISTURE. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP. THE  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TUESDAY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT  
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT  
DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD  
OF UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS  
TUESDAY AND CHANCE DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS SUPPORTS  
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING IFR/MVFR STRATUS  
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP  
AFTER 14Z AND STRATUS MIXES OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO  
RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER, BUT  
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY.  
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE REGION.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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