531  
FXUS62 KCAE 181803  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
103 PM EST WED JAN 18 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE  
AREA TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE  
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE  
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THIS AFTERNOON: CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT  
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL MAINLY BRING  
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER. CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL  
REMAINS SMALL, AND HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. BOTH THE  
LOW AND MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY, AND THIS HAS HELP  
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARMING. TEMPERATURES  
HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO NEAR OR PAST RECORD HIGHS. WITH READINGS  
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. BELIEVE WIND WILL  
REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CONDITIONS  
STILL BREEZY.  
 
TONIGHT: THE FRONT SHOULD BE DIFFUSE AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO  
PARTY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES MAY HELP SUPPORT FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY  
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS DISPLAYED BECOMING DEEP THURSDAY NIGHT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE  
FRONT MAY LINGER FRIDAY, BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME SHALLOW  
BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS  
POPS CATEGORICAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS  
CROSS TOTALS IN THE MIDDLE 20S ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND  
GFS WHICH KEEP SURFACE-BASED LI VALUES ABOVE ZERO THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEPICTS WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY  
FRIDAY, BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER  
FEATURE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW. FOLLOWED THE  
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY  
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE  
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE GFS AND  
ECMWF SHOW THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
MODELS DEPICT A 40- TO 50-KNOT H85 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
FRONT. THE HIGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OF THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORT  
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE  
CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  
INSTABILITY AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. DRYING  
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS  
AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE MOST CONSISTENT WITH  
HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WAS ALSO CONSISTENCY  
WITH VERY LOW POPS TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD  
IS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. VFR CLOUDS  
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE  
DAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THEN  
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. SKIES SHOULD BECOME  
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE  
THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA FOR JANUARY 18TH  
IS 77 LAST SET IN 1952. THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AT AUGUSTA  
IS 80 SET IN 1928.  
 
SO FAR TODAY, COLUMBIA HAS REACHED 80 DEGREES. AUGUSTA HAS  
REACHED 80 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL RISE SLIGHTLY AT BOTH  
SITES, SO RECORD REPORTS WILL BE SENT OUT LATER ON THIS EVENING  
ONCE THE HIGHS HAVE OFFICIALLY BEEN REACHED.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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