838  
FXUS62 KCAE 202342  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
742 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN  
PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND  
THE FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN  
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF GA WILL  
SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE  
CLOUDINESS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS MOSTLY  
CLEAR. SHOWERS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AND EXPECT  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH  
A FEW OUTLYING LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY. UPPER CUT OFF LOW  
AND SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT NE IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY  
SUNDAY...AND SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY  
ROLL THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH  
WITH NO LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC OR GULF TAP PROVIDES LIMITED MOISTURE FOR  
THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LIFT  
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THOUGH MAINLY JUST TO OUR  
NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CANT BE RULED OUT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER  
POSSIBLE MAINLY S FA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT DURING TIME OF BEST  
DIURNAL HEATING. BLENDED A VARIETY OF MODEL SOURCES FOR POP GRIDS  
USING LOCAL TOOL...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
FA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MON NT. LAST SUB 60  
READING AT COLUMBIA WAS 57 ON JUNE 2.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE. E CONUS UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO RAPIDLY  
LIFT NORTH LEAVING BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE E GOMEX...WITH  
UPPER HIGH BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. SURFACE HIGH  
CENTER TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE...RIDGING DOWN INTO OUR  
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES UPPER CUT OFF LOW TO  
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY  
WEST...RESULTING IN A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR OUR REGION LATE WEEK  
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF  
MOISTURE INCREASE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING  
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.  
GENERALLY BLENDED ONGOING FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT  
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AFTER 12Z. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS  
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY  
DAYBREAK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE AND BY 02Z WILL BE LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE...THEN INCREASE TO WESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS FROM 15Z  
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT  
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION  
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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