971
FXUS62 KCAE 091854
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WILL THICKEN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S BY 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO OTHER MODELS.
WILL BASE FORECAST ON GFS SOLUTION. SIGNIFICANT RAIN APPEARS ON
THE WAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO OUR AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL
GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
RAIN AND CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
60S. WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE TS REMAINING WELL TO
THE SOUTH...FEEL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF IDA WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A
MOSTLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
FRONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
AS TROPICAL STORM IDA APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING.
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY AFTER 10Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BECOMING MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ANTICIPATED BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY. SEE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z UNTIL THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO LAMP GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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