885  
FXUS62 KCAE 231138  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH  
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE  
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST  
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE  
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS  
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.  
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM  
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE  
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR  
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS  
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.  
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO  
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR  
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE  
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST  
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE  
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING  
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS  
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS  
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK  
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY  
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS  
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE  
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE  
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE  
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER  
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE  
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH  
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO  
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.  
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER  
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS  
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL  
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING  
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO  
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO  
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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