272  
FXUS62 KFFC 181138  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
735 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017  
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...CYCLONIC  
FLOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED  
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN ON-GOING INTO SOUTHERN TN THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH GA TODAY. THIS  
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND IT SHOULD BE  
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK  
LIMITED TOWARD CENTRAL GA TODAY SO THE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE  
LOW CHANCE RANGE. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA THE FRONT WILL GET...HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT  
WITH SHOWING DRYING INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SO POPS DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY  
LOOKS A BIT MORE STABLE AND DRIER FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA...HOWEVER  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LINGER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED MAINLY FOR CENTRAL GA ON SATURDAY. NO BIG  
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXCEPT SOME GRADUAL LOWERING OF DEW POINTS  
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
41  
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY  
MORNING, WHICH ALLOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP JUST EAST  
AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT STALLING WEAKENED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST  
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE  
WEEK. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THE  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY  
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION, THE BULK OF ANY  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE  
PATH OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS  
THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AND SURFACE HIGH  
SHIFTS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP. EXTENDED  
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW NORTH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKENING FRONT AGAIN MOVES THROUGH PORTIONS OF  
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SHOWING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A BLEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THE  
ECLIPSE (MONDAY) LOOK TO STAY STEADY AN HOUR BEFORE THE MAXIMUM  
OBSCURITY (BETWEEN 1PM-2PM), THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES UP TO 30  
MINUTES AFTER MAX OBSCURITY (3PM). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THE ECLIPSE. THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE  
LESS FOR THOSE UNDER CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. THIS DROP IN  
TEMPERATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ATWELL  
 

 
 
AVIATION...  
12Z UPDATE...  
 
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. A FRONT  
SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH GA TODAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE A TRIGGER  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THINK THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH IN THE TAF SITES.  
WINDS REMAIN ON WEST SIDE TODAY.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF FRONT.  
 
41  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 92 71 92 70 / 40 20 20 5  
ATLANTA 90 72 91 73 / 30 20 20 5  
BLAIRSVILLE 84 63 87 64 / 40 10 10 5  
CARTERSVILLE 90 69 91 69 / 30 10 10 5  
COLUMBUS 94 75 94 75 / 40 30 30 5  
GAINESVILLE 89 70 91 71 / 40 10 10 5  
MACON 94 74 94 72 / 40 30 30 5  
ROME 90 68 92 69 / 30 10 10 5  
PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 92 70 / 30 20 20 5  
VIDALIA 96 76 94 75 / 40 30 50 10  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...41  
LONG TERM....ATWELL  
AVIATION...41  
 
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