895  
FXUS62 KFFC 181432  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING AND THE AREA IS OFF TO  
A QUIET START. A QUICK SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MAKE IT SLIGHTLY  
FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. GIVEN ITS  
PRESENCE ACROSS THE CWA...IT IS EXPECTED TO THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR  
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING PEAKS.  
CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AND AREAS SOUTHWARD. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE CSG TO MCN VICINITY AND  
SOUTHWARD...THO MAY NEED TO SHOW HIGHER POPS CLOSER TO ATL METRO  
WHERE HI-RES CAMS STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY.  
 
KOVACIK  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 715 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TRANQUIL MORNING AND SHOWER  
ACTIVITY ABATING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO  
SINK SOUTH THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR WORKING IN  
ITS WAKE. FOCUS WILL DECIDEDLY BE IN THE CSG TO MCN AREAS AND  
POINTS SOUTHWARD WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS  
OF 2 INCHES AND THERE IS INSTABILITY NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD  
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER  
ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE MAINLY HEAVY RAINERS WITH CONTINUED WARM MID  
LEVEL TEMPS.  
 
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE TRANSITION ZONE NEAR THE ATLANTA  
METRO AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND DOES THIS  
SHUT OFF POPS COMPLETELY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DOUBT PWS WILL  
DROP OFF, STILL COULD SEE 1.75 IN VALUES WHICH SHOULD BE  
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED POPS AT A MINIMUM. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL  
BY THE NAMNEST WHICH SHOWS ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG I20 AFTER 18Z.  
 
AS WEAK LOW FORMS ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY FOR THU, THIS WILL ALLOW  
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN BACK NORTHWARD. CUTOFF FOR LIKELY POPS WILL  
ROUGHLY BE OVER THE SAME ZONE BUT MID RANGE SCATTERED POPS WILL BE  
MUCH FURTHER NORTH ALONG I85. SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALONG  
THE TRANSITION ZONE OVER NORTH GA, SO MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR  
SLIGHTLY INCREASED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  
 
DEESE  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED,  
ESPECIALLY THE BEGINNING AS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL  
PATTERN EVOLVES. BY FRIDAY, REGION COMES UNDER INCREASING  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS EASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DEEPENS. SATURDAY  
STILL APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT  
WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW DRIVING A SURFACE COLD  
FRONT INTO THE STATE. MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND  
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS COMBINE WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT FOR WHAT  
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED, STRONG TO SEVERE  
CONVECTION.  
 
SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS  
SYSTEM, HOWEVER PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN  
U.S. AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP  
CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
20  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z UPDATE...  
 
JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEAL  
WITH THIS MORNING THUS FAR FOR MOST SITES. STILL HAVE MOISTURE  
AFFECTING CSG AND RESULTING IN SOME IFR CIG. MORE ISOLATED REDUCED  
CIGS CURRENTLY AT RYY. OTHERWISE, BEST TSRA CHANCES TODAY WILL BE  
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CURRENT PROB30 LOOKS ON TARGET FOR  
CSG AND MCN. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED ON DRY SOLUTION FOR ATL  
TERMINALS AND HAVE INSERTED VCSH IN THERE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY  
LATEST NAMNEST MODEL RUN. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO 340 BY  
AFTERNOON BUT ANTICIPATE ATL TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE FOR WIND  
DIRECTION INITIALLY UNTIL SWITCH TO EAST SIDE AT 09Z.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
 
MEDIUM ON TSRA CHANCES.  
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
DEESE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 90 72 87 71 / 30 30 40 30  
ATLANTA 91 74 88 72 / 30 30 40 30  
BLAIRSVILLE 86 65 82 67 / 20 20 30 30  
CARTERSVILLE 91 70 89 71 / 10 10 40 30  
COLUMBUS 92 75 91 74 / 60 30 60 30  
GAINESVILLE 89 71 86 70 / 20 30 40 30  
MACON 91 73 89 73 / 60 40 60 40  
ROME 91 69 90 71 / 10 5 30 20  
PEACHTREE CITY 91 72 89 71 / 40 30 50 30  
VIDALIA 91 74 88 73 / 60 50 70 50  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEESE  
LONG TERM....20  
AVIATION...DEESE  
 
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