915  
FXUS62 KFFC 010755  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
255 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015  
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA REVEALS A STRONG 1040MB WEDGE  
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH AXIS INTO THE UPSTATE OF  
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING  
TEMPERATURES VERY CAREFULLY TONIGHT AS -RA AND DZ BEGIN TO PUSH  
INTO THE WEDGE AT THIS HOUR. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD...THE RTMA ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME TEMPS RIGHT AROUND  
FREEZING BUT SINCE THEN HAVE SEEN SOME SLIGHT WARMING AS WINDS  
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS OPPOSED TO NORTHEAST. NOT READY TO CALL IT  
QUITS JUST YET ON THE ADVISORY AS THERE COULD BE SOME COLD POCKETS  
LEFT IN THE VALLEYS WHERE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE BUT MAY BE ABLE  
TO LATER THIS MORNING BASED ON TRENDS.  
 
OTHERWISE...AS TEMPERATURES RISE THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES JUST A  
POP FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SO FAR...HIRES REFLECTIVITY  
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE NAMDNG5 HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH  
THIS EVENT. REMAINS A LOW QPF BUT HIGH POP SCENARIO AND HAVE  
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS  
MORNING WITH A LARGE SWATH OF LIKELY TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE  
ATLANTA METRO. AGAIN...MUCH OF THIS WILL BE LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN  
DRIZZLE WITH MEAGER QPF BUT SHOULD MEASURE NONETHELESS. IN  
CATEGORICAL AREAS...ENOUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FALL TO ALLOW FOR UP  
TO A TENTH OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE WEDGE REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN  
NATURE AND IS DISSIPATED BY LATE THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS  
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AT THIS SAME TIME WITH LIKELY POPS  
FOR THE NW CORNER WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH  
NW GEORGIA. NOT MUCH SOUTHWARD PUSH EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS  
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS MOVING MORE WEST TO  
EAST. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN SAME NORTHERN ZONES FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 
DEESE  
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
WARM PATTERN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION TO START  
OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES STRONG  
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
AMPLE MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT  
WAVES EJECTING FROM THE DEEP TROUGH. HOWEVER THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL  
FORCING AND THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE TIMING ANY OF THESE  
TRANSIENT MID/UPPER FEATURES LEADS ME TO KEEP POPS CHANCE AT BEST  
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. STRONG SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS  
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA  
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  
INSTABILITY IS WANING SOME AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN BUT IS HIGH ENOUGH  
WHEN COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS TO KEEP US  
ON OUR TOES FOR AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION RIGHT NOW. GFS...AND TO A  
LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO BRING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR INTO  
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE KEEPING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING AND  
FILLING SOME AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH I AM STILL A BIT LEARY THAT THE  
BEST COLD AIR WILL MAKE TOO BIG OF AN INTRUSION INTO THE AREA VS  
GETTING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. I HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE  
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF THE PAST FEW RUNS AND AM INCLINED TO  
CONTINUE THAT TREND IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS  
ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND IN FLATTENING THE FLOW ACROSS THE  
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH.  
 
20  
 

 
 
AVIATION...  
06Z UPDATE...  
LATEST PLOT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS IFR ACROSS  
MOST OF SOUTH GEORGIA MOVING INTO THE CSG AND MCN PORTIONS OF  
MIDDLE GEORGIA WITH ALL MVFR TO THE NORTH OF THIS. ALONG WITH THE  
IFR IS A GOOD DEAL OF -RA AND DZ ACROSS THE AREA. ALL THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO AFFECT THE ATL TERMINALS LATER THIS  
MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR TO IFR FOR MOST ALL OF THE DAY NOW AS  
LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON IMPROVEMENT. COULD BE  
A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS EVENING AS EDGE ERODES AND NEXT  
FRONT APPROACHES BUT PROSPECTS FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT LOOK LOW.  
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD FOR SUN NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCE OF SEEING  
REDUCED VSBY AS WELL WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING VLIFR POSSIBLE.  
WILL HOLD TAFS AT LIFR FOR NOW AND EVALUATE AGAIN WITH NEXT TAF  
SET.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON VLIFR POTENTIAL SUN NIGHT.  
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
DEESE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 45 43 46 46 / 80 50 30 50  
ATLANTA 48 46 49 49 / 60 40 40 40  
BLAIRSVILLE 49 44 47 43 / 60 60 60 40  
CARTERSVILLE 48 45 47 46 / 60 50 50 40  
COLUMBUS 53 48 51 51 / 50 30 30 30  
GAINESVILLE 46 44 47 45 / 70 50 50 50  
MACON 49 45 48 48 / 60 40 30 30  
ROME 48 45 48 45 / 40 60 60 40  
PEACHTREE CITY 48 45 48 48 / 60 40 30 30  
VIDALIA 50 49 52 52 / 50 40 30 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...HALL...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...  
UNION...WHITE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEESE  
LONG TERM....20  
AVIATION...DEESE  
 
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