859  
FXUS62 KFFC 282341  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
741 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015  
   
EVENING UPDATE
 
 
A STRONG JET MAX IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS  
THAT IS INVADING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM  
NEAR CARROLLTON SOUTHWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NOTED  
AROUND LA GRANGE... COLUMBUS AND OVER TO CORDELE NOTED. REGIONAL  
RADARS SHOW MAINLY VIRGA OVER AL... SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO  
REACH THE GROUND HERE AS WELL. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER  
THESE SAME AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING... BUT A GRADUAL SHIFT  
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.  
THEREFORE... NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST YET...  
SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZE WARNING AS POSTED FOR NOW. HAVE TWEAKED  
CLOUDS A BIT TO WORD FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY WHERE NEEDED... THEN PARTLY  
CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK  
AT THIS TIME. /39  
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
/ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/  
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST  
DURING THE SHORT TERM. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES  
EXPECTED TO GIVE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING  
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS  
BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BUT NOT CONFIDENT  
ENOUGH TO ADD MORE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO  
WATCH THIS. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM AL MAY AFFECT THE  
TEMPERATURES ALSO...DEPENDING ON IF AND WHEN THEY GET TO THE  
FORECAST AREA AND HOW LONG THEY LINGER. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER  
00Z MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY  
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE  
SOUTHEAST.  
 
 
FIRE WEATHER... A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED  
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRE AT 00Z BEFORE  
ISSUING THE NEXT. FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW  
AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE ON HUMIDITY OR TIME...BUT SEE NO REASON TO  
TRY AND LEAVE THESE AREAS OUT.  
 
41  
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS  
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MINOR DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN  
ECMWF/GFS THEY BOTH AGREE ON TIMING OF FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS  
ARE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST SHOWERS  
MONDAY AS INSTABILITY IS LAGGING THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. BOTH  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AFTER  
TUESDAY...AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS AND MOVES TOWARD  
WEST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN A SHORT WAVE TRACKS  
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH  
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE GOOD GULF MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
BY WEEKS END. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY  
SATURDAY FOR NOW. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.  
 
ATWELL  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORDS FOR 03-29  
 
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE  
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW  
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------  
KAHN 85 1928 47 1959 62 1977 25 1887  
1907  
KATL 84 1989 43 1894 65 1924 25 1887  
1945  
KCSG 89 2007 52 2001 67 1997 32 1955  
1953  
1948  
KMCN 87 1907 47 1926 67 1924 30 1966  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
EXPECTING ATLANTA TAF SITES TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A  
BLANKET OF HIGH MID LEVEL CEILINGS THAT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF  
THE AIRPORTS THRU THE EVENING. CSG WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THRU THE  
EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN THING BEING WINDS SHIFTING FROM  
NW TO EAST BY 12Z SUN... THEN SE BY SUN AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ON  
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 7-9KT RANGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL  
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST SE FLOW TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCT MID  
CLOUDS BY 19-21Z SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BKN MID  
CLOUDS BY 04-06Z MON.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON AND  
LATE EVENING.  
 
39  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 28 59 44 66 / 5 0 40 50  
ATLANTA 32 59 47 66 / 5 5 40 60  
BLAIRSVILLE 23 54 42 61 / 5 5 60 50  
CARTERSVILLE 27 60 46 66 / 5 5 70 50  
COLUMBUS 33 63 48 73 / 5 0 20 60  
GAINESVILLE 28 57 45 64 / 5 5 60 50  
MACON 30 61 45 72 / 5 0 20 50  
ROME 26 60 47 67 / 0 10 70 40  
PEACHTREE CITY 29 60 46 68 / 5 0 40 60  
VIDALIA 34 62 45 71 / 5 0 10 30  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...  
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...  
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...  
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...  
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...  
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...  
JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...  
MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...  
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...  
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...  
TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...  
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...41/39  
LONG TERM....ATWELL  
AVIATION...39  
 
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