602  
FXUS62 KFFC 221915  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT  
TERM...PRODUCING HOT TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVE DEARTH OF  
CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DID CONTINUE WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET TO  
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POPPING UP  
IN THE HEAT AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.  
 
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY  
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT  
INDICES. AS A RESULT...ONE MORE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM  
NOON TO 8PM SATURDAY FOR SOME CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE HEAT  
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES. IF POSSIBLE  
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND CHECK ON  
ELDERLY NEIGHBORS IN THESE AREAS.  
 
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA  
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING  
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR  
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COVER  
THE REST OF THE AREA AS ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH  
THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME  
BRIEFLY STRONG...WITH A STORM OR TWO REACHING SEVERE LIMITS NOT OUT  
OF THE QUESTION.  
 
RW/31  
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  
 
BDL  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF  
THE EXTENDED AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT  
PUSHES IN FOR SUNDAY AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF POPS APPEAR TO BE  
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST...RIDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND  
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THIS AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ECMWF  
AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AND ARE BASICALLY SHOWING NO PRECIP. AT THIS  
POINT...CANNOT COMPLETELY FOLLOW GUIDANCE AND WITH A WEDGE LIKE  
SITUATION AND IT BEING SUMMERTIME HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS. THE  
OTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS SHOWS  
BASICALLY NEAR ZERO CAPE...BUT AGAIN WITH IT BEING  
SUMMERTIME...HAVE LEFT IN ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE DAYTIME. WILL  
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF ITS  
NECESSARY TO BACK OFF ON THUNDER. SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR  
THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE  
OF RAIN/THUNDER FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.  
 
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY COMPARED  
TO SATURDAY...A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  
GEORGIA COULD STILL CREEP INTO THE MID 100S FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES.  
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE  
80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.  
 
11  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z UPDATE...  
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT  
BUT NO LOW STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. VCSH SUFFICES FOR ISOLATED  
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING AT MANY LOCATIONS. SAME DIURNAL SCT CU  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PROB30 -TSRA INCLUDED TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR  
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR ATL WITH BEST CHANCES 18-22Z. WINDS SHOULD  
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT. PORTIONS OF EASTERN GA  
MAY SEE BRIEF NNE WINDS MID-MORNING SATURDAY.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IMPACTING KATL TOMORROW...HIGH  
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
RW/31  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 72 99 73 89 / 5 30 30 60  
ATLANTA 76 95 76 90 / 5 30 20 60  
BLAIRSVILLE 68 89 68 83 / 10 30 30 60  
CARTERSVILLE 70 95 72 91 / 5 30 20 60  
COLUMBUS 77 99 77 95 / 5 20 20 60  
GAINESVILLE 74 93 74 86 / 5 30 30 60  
MACON 73 100 74 93 / 5 20 20 60  
ROME 70 96 73 92 / 10 20 20 60  
PEACHTREE CITY 70 96 73 91 / 5 20 20 60  
VIDALIA 76 100 75 93 / 5 20 20 50  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...  
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...  
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...  
MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...  
SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...  
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...  
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...  
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...  
MACON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...  
PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...  
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...  
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...  
WILKINSON.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RW/31  
LONG TERM....BDL  
AVIATION...RW/31  
 
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