569  
FXUS62 KFFC 072333 AAA  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016  
   
EVENING UPDATE
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AS CURRENT FORECAST  
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING  
INTO FAR NW GA TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /39  
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
 
/ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/  
 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE  
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY...  
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH  
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL  
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR  
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY  
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW  
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE  
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT  
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR  
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST  
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY  
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT  
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS  
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF  
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION  
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW  
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.  
 
ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN  
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW  
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED  
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.  
 
BAKER  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER  
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN  
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF  
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY  
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA  
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL  
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH  
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.  
 
41  
 
/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...  
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP  
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH  
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH  
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID  
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY  
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE  
FLOW.  
 
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH  
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY  
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL  
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING  
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE  
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT  
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE  
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A  
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO  
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE  
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL  
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN  
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE  
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE  
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.  
 
EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL  
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF  
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE  
FORCING...THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.  
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN  
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO  
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON  
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE  
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE  
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES  
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL  
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  
 
NLISTEMAA  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z MON.  
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR MID LEVEL CIGS BY 18Z MON ALONG  
THE A CHANCE OF SPOTTY -SHRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR MID LEVEL CIGS  
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUE WHEN MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK IN ALONG  
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-  
7KTS WILL BACK MORE WEST BY 06-09Z MON... AND REMAIN MAINLY WESTERLY  
ON MON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS BY 18Z WITH OCNL  
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON VFR CIG.  
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.  
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.  
 
39  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 35 52 28 39 / 5 40 40 10  
ATLANTA 37 50 29 36 / 10 30 30 20  
BLAIRSVILLE 31 43 23 30 / 20 60 60 50  
CARTERSVILLE 34 49 27 35 / 20 40 40 20  
COLUMBUS 35 54 31 42 / 5 20 20 5  
GAINESVILLE 36 49 27 34 / 10 50 50 20  
MACON 34 56 30 43 / 5 30 30 5  
ROME 34 48 27 35 / 20 40 40 20  
PEACHTREE CITY 34 51 28 37 / 10 30 30 10  
VIDALIA 36 58 33 46 / 0 20 20 5  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR  
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...  
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAKER/39  
LONG TERM....41  
AVIATION...39  
 
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