098  
FXUS62 KFFC 210519  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1219 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017  
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 955 PM EST MON FEB 20 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AS A  
RATHER ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES OUR WAY FROM THE  
WEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE VORT MAXES  
RESIDING WITHIN EXTREMELY ELONGATED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN/TROUGH  
THAT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL U.S. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT  
THE NORTHERN STREAM SECTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY  
EAST THAN THE MORE CLOSED OFF SOUTHERN STREAM SECTION THAT WILL  
AFFECT OUR REGION TOMORROW.  
 
TONIGHT STILL EXPECTING MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. CLOUD  
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL.  
 
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. STILL EXPECTING  
RAIN SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY-MID  
AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL BE ESTABLISHED VIA DCVA FROM ANOMALOUS  
CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS A VERY WEAK SFC WEDGE  
SETS IN ACROSS EASTERN GA AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER AL/MS /ASSOCIATED  
WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW/ PULLS IN GULF MOISTURE. WEDGE STILL  
LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS TOO STABLE FOR APPRECIABLE THUNDER  
CHANCES...THOUGH STILL SEEING SOME MINUTE VALUES OF MUCAPE SHOWING  
UP IN MODELS. NOT IMPOSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD  
OCCUR...BUT COOLER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE  
WEST SO THINK BEST CHANCES WILL STAY CONFINED TO ALABAMA AND AREAS  
WEST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S-MID 70S  
EXPECTED.  
 
FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN WEATHER: ENCOURAGE YOU TO WATCH THE  
PROGRESSION OF THIS CLOSED LOW AS IT TAKES A RATHER UNUSUAL PATH  
ACROSS THE GULF AND BAHAMAS THIS WEEK. IT IS NOT OFTEN YOU SEE  
SUCH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TRACK THAT FAR SOUTH.  
 
KOVACIK  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM EST MON FEB 20 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...  
CWA ENJOYING ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH  
SOME PLACES PACED TO GET NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AS RIDGE-DOMINATED REGIME CONTINUES.  
THIS RIDGE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A HYBRID WEDGE AS THE PARENT SFC  
HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS  
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZED DESPITE THE APPROACH  
OF AN UPPER CUTOFF TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND ITS TRANSLATED SFC LOW  
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF. NAM 295 K THETA SFC INDICATES THE TYPICAL  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE KICKING IN AND RESULTANT INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES  
BY AFTERNOON THEN REALLY FILLING IN AREA-WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
PRECIP SHOULD STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE AT TIMES WITH STORM TOTALS NEAR  
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH BEFORE ALL IS PUSHED EAST OF US IN THE  
EARLY LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY). PROGGED INSTABILITY EVEN FOR THE MOST  
UNSTABLE PARCELS IS CLOSE TO NIL SO KEEPING ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT.  
WHILE TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD LOWER THAN TODAY...THEY ARE STILL FCST TO  
BE ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 60S NORTH TO 70S SOUTH. WILL SEEM  
COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE, LINGERING SHOWERS, AND ENHANCED  
GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE SE.  
 
BAKER  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  
 
BDL  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA.  
THIS FRONT BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON  
THE STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM BUT THEY BOTH SHOW  
IT WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO GA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE  
INSTABILITY WITH IT SO CONTINUING WITH SHOWERS AND NO MENTION OF  
THUNDER. THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM KEEPS INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE  
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE  
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THEN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE  
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO  
THE EASTERN US FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A  
LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY WITH IT SO KEEPING IN THE MENTION OF  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT  
APPEARS TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THINGS  
OUT FOR SUNDAY.  
 
01  
 
CLIMATE...  
 
RECORDS FOR 02-20  
 
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE  
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW  
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------  
KAHN 78 1986 37 2015 57 1991 14 2015  
KATL 78 1986 32 1901 57 2014 16 2015  
1994 1934  
KCSG 80 1986 36 2015 63 1991 21 2015  
1917  
KMCN 80 1991 37 2015 61 1961 18 2015  
1986  
 
RECORDS FOR 02-21  
 
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE  
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW  
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------  
KAHN 76 1981 34 1928 59 1997 13 1885  
1925  
KATL 75 1976 32 1898 62 1997 10 1896  
KCSG 81 1922 40 1901 62 1997 18 1958  
1971  
KMCN 81 1976 40 1904 60 1997 23 1958  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z UPDATE...  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR  
CIGS ADVECTING INTO THE TAF AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIGS  
DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN  
TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST  
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST  
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS.  
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
17  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 70 54 67 54 / 60 90 70 20  
ATLANTA 70 57 67 56 / 80 90 60 10  
BLAIRSVILLE 64 50 62 49 / 80 90 80 20  
CARTERSVILLE 68 54 67 53 / 80 90 70 10  
COLUMBUS 74 58 72 56 / 80 90 30 10  
GAINESVILLE 66 53 63 53 / 80 90 80 20  
MACON 75 59 73 56 / 60 70 30 20  
ROME 68 55 67 53 / 80 90 70 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 71 55 68 53 / 80 90 50 10  
VIDALIA 76 60 74 59 / 10 30 30 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...17  
LONG TERM....01  
AVIATION...17  
 
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