592  
FXUS62 KFFC 220235  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH  
BUT A FEW COULD LINGER ALL NIGHT.  
 
41  
   
PREVIOUS
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST  
OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY  
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSER TO THIS UPPER LOW. WHILE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, SOME  
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALABAMA BY TUESDAY  
MORNING, PWS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH PWS  
OF 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS MOISTURE  
SURGING INTO THE AREA, EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TO BLOSSOM BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AND WIDESPREAD  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE  
SOUPY AIRMASS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE ANTICIPATED, AND A  
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH  
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
RW  
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL  
LATE IN THE PERIOD GIVEN SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL/UPPER LOW COMING  
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL GULF COAST.  
 
AT START OF THE PERIOD, REMNANT OF WEAK UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO  
WESTERLIES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE STILL  
TRAPPED UNDER LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN  
GULF OF MEXICO. FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO NORTH GA WED/THURS PROGGED  
TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS INTO RIDGE WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES WELL  
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER  
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THURS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS POINT THOUGH 12Z GFS DOES SHOW A SMALL BUT  
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER OVER SOUTHERN AL 00Z FRI. NOT SEEING THIS IN  
OTHER MODELS SO SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN GFS FORECAST BEYOND  
THIS POINT. EITHER WAY, BOTTOM LINE IS SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION  
LIKELY WED THRU FRI.  
 
BY FRIDAY, MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP CIRCULATION OVER THE  
SOUTHERN GULF AND BRING IT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS  
WEEKEND. 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS FASTER MOVING INLAND EARLY SUNDAY  
BUT EC MUCH FURTHER WEST OVER LA/MS COAST AND GFS OVER FL WEST  
COAST. 12Z GGEM SLOWER BUT ALSO ON FURTHER WEST TRACK. WILL HAVE  
TO MONITOR THIS LOW CLOSELY. NHC CURRENTLY INDICATING 20PCT CHANCE  
OF TS FORMATION BUT THOSE WILL LIKELY RISE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS  
CONTINUE.  
 
IRREGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OR INTENSITY OF THIS LOW, GA WILL BE ON  
THE WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.  
SATURDAY COULD BE THE WETTEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT WITH  
DEEP MOISTURE (PW ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE) AND STEADY  
MOISTURE ADVECTION, ANY DAY COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
SNELSON  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH THIS  
EVENING. EXPECT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN COVERAGE...BUT A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY  
08-10Z...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS  
AND TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS  
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-10KTS.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.  
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
41  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 66 80 66 84 / 30 60 60 50  
ATLANTA 67 79 68 83 / 30 70 60 50  
BLAIRSVILLE 62 75 62 80 / 30 70 60 40  
CARTERSVILLE 66 80 66 84 / 30 70 60 50  
COLUMBUS 68 82 69 85 / 50 70 60 60  
GAINESVILLE 65 77 66 82 / 30 70 60 50  
MACON 68 82 68 85 / 40 70 60 60  
ROME 66 81 66 85 / 30 60 50 40  
PEACHTREE CITY 66 80 66 83 / 40 70 60 60  
VIDALIA 70 83 69 86 / 40 60 40 60  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...41  
LONG TERM....SNELSON  
AVIATION...41  
 
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