303  
FXUS62 KFFC 021441 AAB  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1041 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD  
COVERAGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS  
OUT THERE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE ONLY  
MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.  
 
11  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/  
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS ON TAP BOTH TODAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY IS A GOOD INDICATION OF WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. SIMILAR REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
CONUS WITH DECENT GULF MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND AND BEST DYNAMICS  
STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITHIN THE LARGELY  
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A  
LINGERING WEAK LEE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...OROGRAPHIC  
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTH...AND ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS  
STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH OVERALL CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE BOTH  
AFTERNOONS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH  
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS MAIN THREATS. NAM  
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC UP TO 700/650 MB. SHOULD BE DECENT CAPE  
EACH DAY. PATCHY FOG LIKELY EACH MORNING IN AREAS THAT SEE  
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS.  
 
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN LOW  
90S FOR MOST AREAS AND LOWS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
BAKER  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED  
EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  
 
WEAK TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT  
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS  
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS  
ALOFT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 
A WEAK FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND. WITH  
SUCCESSIVE RUNS...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF  
THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GA  
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GA BY LATE  
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
NLISTEMAA  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z UPDATE...  
/ISSUED 751 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/  
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CU FIELD THIS  
AFTERNOON IN 4-6 KFT RANGE AND SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SCT DECK  
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED  
TEMPO GROUP. HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT  
ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS. INITIAL CALM TO LIGHT VRB WINDS BECOMING  
SW TO WEST 7 KTS AND UNDER.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON TSRA TIMING.  
HIGH ALL ELSE.  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 95 70 94 72 / 40 30 40 20  
ATLANTA 92 73 90 74 / 40 30 40 20  
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 68 / 40 30 40 20  
CARTERSVILLE 93 68 91 71 / 40 30 40 20  
COLUMBUS 95 74 92 75 / 40 30 40 20  
GAINESVILLE 91 71 90 73 / 40 30 40 20  
MACON 94 71 93 73 / 40 30 40 20  
ROME 93 68 92 71 / 40 30 40 20  
PEACHTREE CITY 92 69 90 70 / 40 30 40 20  
VIDALIA 94 74 94 74 / 40 30 40 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...11  
LONG TERM....17  
AVIATION...11  
 
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