770  
FXUS62 KFFC 280126  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
926 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016  
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY  
FEEDING THIS STORMS, BUT OVERALL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT A  
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM.  
 
HAVE UPDATED THE POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 726 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016/  
 
UPDATE...  
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE THE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NW GA.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADARS ALL SHOW A FRONTAL  
TROUGH SAGGING INTO WEST AND NORTH TN WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WELL SOUTH OF THE  
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND INTO NORTH AL. LOCAL RADARS  
SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NE GA... AND THIS  
ACTIVITY WAS INITIALLY TERRAIN INDUCED... BUT NOW IS DEVELOPING  
ALONG THEIR OWN OUTFLOWS. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MORNING SOUNDING  
SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY /3500 J/KG OF CAPE/ AND MOISTURE /1.7+  
PW'S/ WITH NO CAP. THIS COUPLED WITH A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT  
WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING... WITH SOME OF THESE PULSE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO  
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON STORMS... EXPECT THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO  
SAG TOWARD NORTH GA THIS EVENING... AND THIS WILL JUST SERVE TO HELP  
KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT  
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTH GA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER  
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE  
FRONT SAGS TOWARD ATLANTA AREA BY SUNRISE. COULD SEE SCATTERED  
CONVECTION FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA IN THE MORNING WITH INITIAL  
DAYTIME HEATING... ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE LINGERING FRONT IS  
MEANDERING... AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BE AROUND THE ATLANTA METRO  
AREA. THEN THE FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL GA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...  
SHIFTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES THERE WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING  
INTO NORTH GA. MODELS SHOW THE DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO  
CENTRAL GA TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH  
GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT HIS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT  
ANYWHERE CONSIDERING HOW UNSTABLE THE AIR MASS IS. THE GREATEST  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND  
MIDNIGHT... BUT STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT  
SAGGING INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT. SPC SHOWS JUST GENERAL THUNDER ON  
TUESDAY... AND THE GREATER STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL GA  
DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING... SO THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE GREATER  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.  
 
OTHERWISE... WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR  
TEMPS... AND INCREASED POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS NORTH GA THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THEN ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.  
 
39  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  
 
BDL  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. H5 TROUGH OVER  
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE  
MAIN FLOW AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LONG TERM...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE CWA OVER  
THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF  
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY.  
 
17  
 
AVIATION...  
00Z UPDATE...  
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING NW GA SHOULD BEGIN TO  
IMPACT ATL BTWN 00Z AND 01Z. THE LINE IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOW, SO  
HAVE EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP BY AN HOUR. MODELS DIVERGE ON  
WHETHER IFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP, SO HAVE LIMITED THE LOW CLOUDS TO  
FEW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW,  
BUT SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO THE EAST SIDE.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 72 87 69 92 / 90 50 20 20  
ATLANTA 74 88 71 91 / 100 50 20 20  
BLAIRSVILLE 67 84 63 85 / 100 30 20 10  
CARTERSVILLE 70 88 65 90 / 100 40 10 10  
COLUMBUS 74 90 72 91 / 60 60 40 20  
GAINESVILLE 72 84 69 90 / 100 40 20 20  
MACON 72 92 71 92 / 40 60 40 30  
ROME 71 89 67 91 / 70 30 10 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 71 88 67 91 / 100 50 20 20  
VIDALIA 73 93 74 90 / 20 60 60 40  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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