765  
FXUS62 KFFC 010118  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
918 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
HYBRID WEDGE AND MOISTURE OVERRUN IS ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE  
PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER  
CHANCE AND SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA WHICH IS  
NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE WRF-  
NMM HAS DONE BEST. WEDGE AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIKELY  
ALLOWED FOR EVAP COOLING FROM PRECIP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN  
TEMPS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN  
OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES IN NORTH GA. DID NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS  
WHAT WAS TRENDING SINCE SOME LOCATIONS MAY HOVER WITH LACK OF  
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME  
SPOTS NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND FARTHER NORTH RECEIVED  
NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE FROM SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHOWERS EARLIER SO  
THESE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE KEPT CLOSE EYE ON WITH FURTHER PRECIP  
FOR ANY EXACERBATED THREATS TO FLOODING. CANNOT JUSTIFY OTHER  
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE  
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN  
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE  
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN  
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.  
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF  
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS  
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL  
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.  
 
THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC  
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/  
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH  
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA  
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES  
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS  
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL  
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY  
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.  
 
GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS  
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.  
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.  
 
31  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING  
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE  
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.  
 
41  
 
PREVIOUS...  
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT  
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER  
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR  
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE  
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST  
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR  
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL  
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE  
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF  
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK  
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED  
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH  
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY  
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.  
 
01  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
INITIAL VFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME  
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THEN  
CHANCES PICK BACK UP AFTER 06-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF  
FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AFTER 18Z. CANNOT RULE  
OUT TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB30 WITH LATER  
UPDATES. WINDS GENERALLY ENE UNDER 10 KTS. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN  
AREAS OF PRECIP.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.  
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 64 82 68 85 / 60 60 50 60  
ATLANTA 65 82 69 83 / 50 50 40 50  
BLAIRSVILLE 62 75 64 77 / 70 70 50 60  
CARTERSVILLE 63 82 68 84 / 60 50 40 60  
COLUMBUS 70 88 71 87 / 30 40 30 50  
GAINESVILLE 63 78 68 81 / 70 70 50 60  
MACON 68 86 70 86 / 40 40 40 50  
ROME 66 83 68 83 / 60 50 40 60  
PEACHTREE CITY 65 84 68 85 / 50 50 40 50  
VIDALIA 70 90 73 91 / 20 50 30 60  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...31/BAKER  
LONG TERM....01/41  
AVIATION...BAKER  
 
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