985  
FXUS62 KFFC 271101  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
701 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 346 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE QUICKLY TO  
THE SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY  
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH  
ALOFT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES  
RIDING THE TROUGH WILL CROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THIS, THERE  
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT (THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC  
EFFECTS) TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY  
MID TO LATE MORNING. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT DO  
EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS ENERGY. THE TROUGH WILL  
EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN  
CLEARING SKIES BY THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR  
MASS IN PLACE AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT (WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR  
ASCENT), FEEL COVERAGE WOULD BE EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER, IF WE DO  
SEE THE RETURN FLOW DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT, THEN  
PERHAPS IT WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
 
STILL ANTICIPATE PLEASANT TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...STILL  
BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP TO  
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  
 
26  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM TREND FOR THIS MODEL RUN. STILL  
LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A RAPID  
RETURN FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FAR WEST CENTRAL GA AFTER  
06Z THURSDAY...INCREASING POPS AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.  
MODELS STILL HINTING AT A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN  
GULF ACROSS GA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE OUR AREA REMAINS  
IN AN UNSTABLE MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH  
DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE  
WEEKEND MAY HELP PUSH A FRONT INTO TN. SO...LIKELY POPS LOOK  
REASONABLE FOR NORTH GA ON SATURDAY AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT.  
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
41  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z UPDATE...  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES  
ARE THE WIND SHIFTS FOR THE METRO TAF SITES. BASED ON THE LATEST  
HIGH RES. GUIDANCE, SURFACE OBS AND VAD WIND PROFILE, WE WILL  
LIKELY SEE MORE NNW WINDS THAN NNE THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES  
APPEAR THAT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND AN UPPER  
LEVEL IMPULSE EXITING, THAT WE SHOULD SEE WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT  
TO THE NNE DURING THE EVENING. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15KTS. MEANWHILE, CIRRUS  
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  
ANTICIPATE SOME DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP. CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WIND SHIFTS FROM NNW TO NNE.  
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
26  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 85 63 86 67 / 5 0 10 5  
ATLANTA 84 65 86 69 / 5 0 5 10  
BLAIRSVILLE 77 55 80 62 / 20 0 5 5  
CARTERSVILLE 83 59 87 68 / 5 0 5 10  
COLUMBUS 88 68 89 72 / 5 0 10 20  
GAINESVILLE 82 62 84 67 / 10 0 10 5  
MACON 88 65 89 70 / 5 0 10 10  
ROME 84 59 87 68 / 5 0 5 5  
PEACHTREE CITY 85 62 87 68 / 5 0 10 10  
VIDALIA 88 69 89 71 / 20 10 10 10  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM....41  
AVIATION...26  
 
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