114  
FXUS62 KFFC 231948  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014  
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN FROM  
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR  
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE TO  
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RETURN MOISTURE BEGINNING  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE  
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...MAINLY  
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT  
AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS  
AT THIS TIME. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.  
 
41  
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES  
TO UPDATE CURRENT GRID THINKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...COVERAGE IS  
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING  
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEXT BIG  
RAIN PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS  
STILL SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH  
GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...  
 
31  
 

 
 
/ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/  
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE MID  
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA  
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA  
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN  
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES  
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES  
INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A  
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO  
STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY  
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE  
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME  
PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR.  
STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL  
OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU  
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.  
 
01  
 

 
 
AVIATION...  
18Z UPDATE...  
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 18KT...DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO  
NORTHEAST BY 10Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE  
MORNING.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.  
 
41  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 48 78 58 81 / 0 5 20 30  
ATLANTA 51 76 60 78 / 0 5 20 30  
BLAIRSVILLE 43 73 54 74 / 0 5 50 40  
CARTERSVILLE 44 77 58 78 / 0 5 40 30  
COLUMBUS 53 81 60 81 / 0 5 10 20  
GAINESVILLE 49 73 59 77 / 0 5 40 30  
MACON 49 81 59 83 / 0 5 10 20  
ROME 44 77 57 78 / 0 5 50 30  
PEACHTREE CITY 44 79 57 79 / 0 5 20 20  
VIDALIA 56 81 62 83 / 0 5 10 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...41  
LONG TERM....31  
AVIATION...41  
 
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