541  
FXUS62 KFFC 181146  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
646 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017  
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 431 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH IN THE  
MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE SW US AND S. PLAINS WITH NUMEROUS VORT  
MAXES ROTATING ABOUT. A COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS IN/OH...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA  
AND A BUILDING...DIABATICALLY-INDUCED...SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO  
THE WEST. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE  
APPALACHIANS SW INTO NW GA AND AL/MS.  
 
FOR TODAY...DYNAMICS FROM NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD HELP  
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH  
GEORGIA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE  
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. AS THE FRONT PUSHES MORE INTO THE  
STATE...LOW TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S.  
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT  
TODAY AND IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY BECOMES MUCH  
MORE ISOLATED AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT FROM PARENT SYSTEM ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARGUING FOR  
SUBSIDENCE AS IT BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LACK OF  
APPRECIABLE MUCAPE /WARM MID LEVELS/ WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF  
THUNDER TODAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...KEPT TEMPS WELL-ABOVE NORMAL  
ONCE AGAIN AS AIRMASS REMAINS STAGNANT. POSITION OF THE FRONT  
TODAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORTH GA HIGH TEMPS...THINKING FRONT  
WILL STALL BETWEEN ATL AND MCN...WITH FAR NORTH GEORGIA SEEING THE  
DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BY DAY'S END AS WEAK SFC HIGH  
SETTLES IN. LOOKING AT HIGHS LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL.  
 
TONIGHT: WEAK POST FRONTAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CREEP A LITTLE  
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA...POSSIBLY DOWN TOWARDS ATL AS FRONT  
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 40S  
NORTH TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING  
SHOULD KEEP MOST EVERYONE DRY OVERNIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY: NEAR DAYBREAK...SFC HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDGE DOWN THE  
MOUNTAINS AND CREATE A WEAK WEDGE. THIS SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THE  
DRIER AIR INTO E CENTRAL GA...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THE WEDGE  
WILL MAKE IT. IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE  
ACROSS THE GULF STATES AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ARKLATEX REGION IN  
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ACROSS S PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW STALLED  
BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT /KEEPING HIGH TEMPS WARM  
AGAIN/. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA AT THE END OF THE  
PERIOD...BRINGING A NICE BATCH OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE  
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.  
 
KOVACIK  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
NO BIG CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF  
WAVES WILL AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT  
SHOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT  
HOWEVER INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY EXISTING DAYTIME CLOUD  
COVER. THIS SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THERE MAY BE A  
BRIEF BREAK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IMPULSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES  
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS  
ANS ECMWF DIFFER ON SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER  
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.  
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER  
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 40S BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
41  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z UPDATE...  
ONLY SITE REMAINING VFR THIS MORNING IS AHN...REST OF SITES  
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG. CURRENTLY THINK FOG/LOWER  
VSBYS WILL ONLY AFFECT CSG AND MCN. OVERALL EXPECT THESE  
CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY  
IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY VFR THIS  
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS MORNING AND REMAIN  
ELEVATED BETWEEN 7-12KTS. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE  
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE A LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK MOVES IN  
THURSDAY MORNING TO MAINLY CSG AND METRO ATL SITES. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY  
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY 5-10KTS.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
HIGH ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.  
MEDIUM ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
KOVACIK  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 73 47 65 53 / 30 10 20 80  
ATLANTA 70 53 68 57 / 30 10 40 80  
BLAIRSVILLE 62 44 60 49 / 30 10 60 90  
CARTERSVILLE 64 48 66 55 / 30 10 50 90  
COLUMBUS 74 56 72 59 / 20 10 40 80  
GAINESVILLE 66 49 63 53 / 30 10 30 80  
MACON 74 53 72 58 / 20 10 20 80  
ROME 63 47 66 55 / 30 20 60 90  
PEACHTREE CITY 71 48 68 56 / 30 10 40 90  
VIDALIA 76 56 73 59 / 20 10 10 60  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KOVACIK  
LONG TERM....41  
AVIATION...KOVACIK  
 
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