470  
FXUS62 KFFC 292351  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
751 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...  
 
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY THE ATL METRO AND  
POINTS NORTHWARD...THIS IS CERTAINLY THE LOCATION FOR THE MOST  
CONCENTRATED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AND IN FACT...THE  
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS BEARING THIS OUT AS A DECENT CLUSTER OF  
STORMS CONTINUES FROM WALKER AND CATOOSA EASTWARD TO  
MURRAY...GILMER AND FANNIN. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BUILD  
SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT ALSO  
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING  
SOUTHWARD. MAY BUMP UP POPS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER TO  
LIKELY BUT OTHERWISE THE VERY NEAR TERM IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO  
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.  
 
GIVEN CONTINUED MARGINAL CAPE AND AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL CARRY SOME  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE VERY LATE EVENING HOURS BUT CLEAR OUT  
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NEAR UNIFORM TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT  
WITH LOWER 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.  
 
THE MOISTURE AXIS THAT IS AFFECTING NORTH GA TODAY SHIFTS OVER THE  
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF GA FOR SATURDAY TO INCLUDE BOTH COLUMBUS AND  
MACON. SOME DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTH WHERE PW VALUES DIP TO  
1.50 INCHES ACROSS ATLANTA BUT ALREADY RECOVERING TO 1.75 INCHES  
BY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR NW. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL  
PORTIONS BUT MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY WARM WITH -5C AT 500MB. SO  
ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...OVERALL STRENGTH OF  
STORMS WILL REMAIN BENIGN. EXCEPTION MAY BE THOSE EXTREME NW  
COUNTIES WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS DO DECREASE TO AROUND -7C LATE IN  
THE DAY PERHAPS LEADING TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO.  
 
WILL AGAIN BE A CLOSE CALL FOR 90 DEGREE DAYS AT ATL FOR SAT BUT  
RIGHT NOW HAVE A SOLID 92 IN THERE FOR SAT.  
 
DEESE  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH  
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO TN VALLEY. THIS  
FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THROUGH  
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD HELP ENHANCE OUR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE  
INSTABILITIES SUGGEST MOST AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS SHOULD  
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... BUT WITH ADDED UPPER SUPPORT... CANNOT  
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY PARTS  
OF NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THE  
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TX  
BUILDS EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY LESSON OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES A  
BIT... STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT  
AT LEAST A 30-40 PERCENT POP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH 20-  
30 PERCENT WARRANTED OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HELP HOLD  
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND... THEN EXPECT  
ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM UP INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HIGH  
PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST.  
 
39  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
CONTINUED TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH OR TSRA AT SEVERAL  
NORTHERN TAF SITES AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING.  
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT MVFR  
AFTER 12Z. IFR CIGS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.  
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH  
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PROB30 FOR  
20-00Z FOR ATL TO AHN AND SOUTHWARD. EXPECT THIS TO TRANSITION TO  
A VCSH RATHER THAN A TEMPO. WEST WINDS WILL BE 6 KT OR LESS  
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 7-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS  
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.  
 
31  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 73 95 73 94 / 30 20 20 40  
ATLANTA 74 92 75 91 / 30 30 30 40  
BLAIRSVILLE 67 87 67 85 / 40 20 20 50  
CARTERSVILLE 71 91 72 90 / 30 20 20 40  
COLUMBUS 75 95 75 94 / 20 40 40 30  
GAINESVILLE 72 91 73 90 / 30 20 20 40  
MACON 74 96 74 95 / 20 40 40 30  
ROME 71 92 72 91 / 30 30 20 40  
PEACHTREE CITY 72 93 72 92 / 30 30 30 40  
VIDALIA 75 98 76 96 / 10 40 40 30  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...31  
LONG TERM....41  
AVIATION...31  
 
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