703  
FXUS62 KFFC 271134  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
634 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015  
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING ARE EITHER FREEZING OR  
WILL BE THERE SHORTLY. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT ARE PRODUCING AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS  
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW PATCHES  
OF SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE OCCASIONALLY OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR  
NORTH GA THIS MORNING... AND THIS TREND MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST GA AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TODAY.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA  
THIS MORNING AS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE FREEZES. ALTHOUGH NOTHING  
WIDESPREAD IS EXPECT... THIS POTENTIAL EXIST... AND THEREFORE WILL  
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS POSTED THROUGH 9 AM FOR THIS  
BLACK ICE POTENTIAL. A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH  
GA MAY NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE MORNING... SO EVEN IF THE  
ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM... IT DOES NOT MEAN THIS  
THREAT HAS COMPLETELY ENDED. ALL INTEREST IN NORTH GA SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  
 
OTHERWISE... WHERE CLOUDS OCCUR THIS MORNING... EXPECT A GRADUALLY  
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST GA  
WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER... EVEN OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE  
TO TRAVERSE THAT AREA. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL ZONES ON  
WEDNESDAY AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION  
PATTERN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
WITH ALL AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. A SLIGHT  
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY UNDER AMPLE  
SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING WINDS.  
 
39  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/  
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN  
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN  
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT  
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE  
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE  
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR  
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL  
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.  
 
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE  
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A  
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE  
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE  
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF  
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE  
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING  
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF  
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST  
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF  
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC  
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE  
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS  
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME  
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/  
FUELS HAVE BEEN TOO WET RECENTLY...THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH WINDS  
MAY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FIRE  
DANGER CONCERN. HOWEVER IF FUELS DRY ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY...THEN  
A HIGH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND  
CENTRAL GEORGIA GIVEN THE FORECAST AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 20-25  
PERCENT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES WITH THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z UPDATE...  
MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CURRENT MID LEVEL  
CIGS WILL SCATTER AROUND 18-19Z TODAY... AND REMAIN SCATTERED IN  
COVERAGE THRU MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
OVERNIGHT AND ON WED. CURRENT WNW WINDS AROUND 7-8KTS WILL VEER MORE  
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 22-  
25KTS BY 15-17Z TODAY. NNW WINDS AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT AND ON WED. MODELS ARE INDICATING WINDS MAY SWING OVER TO  
NE SOMETIME AROUND 18Z WED.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF SCATTERED CIGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
39  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 49 27 52 30 / 10 5 0 0  
ATLANTA 49 30 51 34 / 10 5 0 0  
BLAIRSVILLE 41 24 50 29 / 20 5 0 5  
CARTERSVILLE 48 27 51 31 / 10 5 0 5  
COLUMBUS 54 32 56 34 / 10 0 0 0  
GAINESVILLE 46 28 50 33 / 10 5 0 0  
MACON 54 29 55 31 / 10 0 0 0  
ROME 49 27 51 31 / 10 0 5 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 51 27 52 31 / 10 0 0 0  
VIDALIA 54 32 54 32 / 5 5 0 0  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...  
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...  
MURRAY...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...  
WHITFIELD.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...39  
LONG TERM....BAKER  
AVIATION...39  
 
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