631  
FXUS62 KFFC 050731  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
331 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015  
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW...  
THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN EXACT LOCATION OF LOW BETWEEN SHORT  
TERM MODELS...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE  
LOW IMPACTING EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST  
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE  
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP PSEUDO  
WEDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. MODELS..  
INCLUDING HI RES MODELS...CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING /GENERALLY 4 TO 8 PM/. MODELS  
SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT AND EXPECT SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY...THE MAIN ISSUE IS LACK OF  
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS AS FAR AS EXACT LOCATION. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED  
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH BEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL GA. AS FAR AS  
TEMPERATURES GO...WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER MAV IN EAST WITH MORE OF  
A BLEND OF MAV/MET AS WEDGE SETS UP TODAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  
 
ATWELL  
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO GO MORE ZONAL IN NATURE  
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN  
GULF. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY. THE GFS  
HAS THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE CWFA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF  
TURNS THE TROUGH INTO A SHEAR AXIS THAT PARKS ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN  
GA. THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER AND STRONGER TROUGH PROGGED VS THE GFS.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS ON THROUGH LATE MONDAY.  
HOWEVER...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY TUESDAY. A LEE TROUGH  
SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE  
WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A FRONT APPROACHING THE CWFA LATER  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT TO SOUTHERN GA BEFORE  
STALLING IT OUT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT STALLING/BECOMING  
DIFFUSE ACROSS NORTHERN GA.  
 
NLISTEMAA  
 

 
   
AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS...MID LEVEL CIGS...050...WILL MOVE INTO  
THE AREA AS NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS PREVAIL AT 5-10KTS. SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY 18-24Z.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS  
 
ATWELL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 85 68 83 69 / 40 30 30 20  
ATLANTA 87 70 84 71 / 40 40 40 20  
BLAIRSVILLE 80 64 80 64 / 50 20 40 20  
CARTERSVILLE 89 68 86 68 / 30 20 40 20  
COLUMBUS 91 71 88 72 / 40 40 40 20  
GAINESVILLE 84 69 82 69 / 40 30 30 20  
MACON 90 69 86 70 / 50 40 30 20  
ROME 90 68 87 69 / 30 20 30 20  
PEACHTREE CITY 87 68 84 69 / 40 40 40 20  
VIDALIA 89 71 86 71 / 40 40 40 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ATWELL  
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA  
AVIATION...ATWELL  
 
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