959  
FXUS62 KFFC 160455  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1155 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2017  
   
UPDATE FOR AVIATION
 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SCATTER AND CLEAR ACROSS NORTH  
GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO DROPPING QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS.  
SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES  
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE,  
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.  
 
RW  
 

 
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...  
 
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM. CURRENTLY...RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE ROCKY MTN STATES WHILE  
BROAD TROUGHING EXITS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY. AS  
FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN LATITUDES...A SLOW  
MOVING CLOSED LOW IS MEANDERING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. AT THE  
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STATES IN THE  
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE CENTRAL  
GULF.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...PACIFIC  
MOISTURE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE  
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MID  
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO FUMBLE AROUND WESTERN MEXICO. MOST OF THIS  
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME VIRGA SHOWING  
UP ON LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY. CONSENSUS IS THAT A VORT RIBBON STEMMING  
FROM NORTHERN STREAM CYCLONIC ENERGY WILL HELP PUSH OUT THE MAJORITY  
OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES FROM NW TO SE. SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT  
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE SOUTH. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN  
SFC HIGH AND BAROCLINIC RESPONSE OF SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST  
WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING  
TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA.  
 
FOR SATURDAY...PESKY MEXICO CLOSED LOW WILL BE KICKED INTO WESTERN  
TX AS A DIGGING TROUGH DIVES INTO THE S CA/BAJA AREA. THIS WILL  
INDUCE A SHORT WAVE/DIABATIC RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MAKE  
FOR FAIRLY MILD TEMPS AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE NOTICEABLY. ALTHOUGH  
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS  
VALLEY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL THE  
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...WILL STAY DRY AND MILD  
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY ON THE RISE.  
A QUIET SHORT TERM THEN GIVES WAY TO AN ACTIVE LONG TERM.  
 
KOVACIK  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
 
THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON KEEPING RUN-TO-RUN  
CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS WITH EACH OTHER FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH  
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE AXIS AND POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE INFLUENCES  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEY AT LEAST BOTH AGREE ON SOME LESS  
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY SO HAVE TAKEN THUNDER CHANCE OUT THEN,  
THOUGH INCLUDE IN PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL GA FOR MON/TUE. WILL  
CONTINUE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS STARTING  
FROM THE NW SUNDAY THEN OTHER AREAS THRU TUES, THEN LIMIT TO  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. ODDLY ENOUGH THEY  
BOTH AGREE ON THE RETURN OF A BROAD SW GULF MOISTURE FETCH BY  
FRIDAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
FOLLOWS...  
 
BAKER  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017/  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AS A TRANSITION ONE AS HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MID  
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY  
TRANSITION THE NIL POPS EARLY SAT NIGHT INTO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES  
LATE SUNDAY. GIVEN MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILE, WOULD ACTUALLY SEE A  
LARGE AREA OF PREDOMINANT SHOWERS BUT THIS IS A GOOD START THIS  
FAR OUT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE, IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE  
SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED  
INSTABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER  
CHANCES IN THE GRIDS.  
 
WITH BROAD TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED, WOULD  
EXPECT DISTURBED PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK ALTHOUGH MODELS  
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST  
WHICH KEEPS A ZONE OF LIKELY POPS IN TRANSITIONING SOUTH OF THE  
REGION BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  
 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON TAP INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE  
HOLIDAY WITH MODELS ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT.  
DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT, RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ALL OVER  
THE PLACE AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.  
 
DEESE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z UPDATE...  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST VARYING  
HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT W-N BECOMING WSW OR LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION AFTER 00Z.  
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
BDL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 51 29 55 36 / 0 0 0 5  
ATLANTA 44 29 55 38 / 0 0 0 5  
BLAIRSVILLE 32 21 53 31 / 0 0 0 10  
CARTERSVILLE 37 25 53 35 / 0 0 0 10  
COLUMBUS 48 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 5  
GAINESVILLE 41 28 54 37 / 0 0 0 5  
MACON 52 28 57 36 / 0 0 0 5  
ROME 39 23 54 34 / 0 0 0 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 45 28 56 36 / 0 0 0 5  
VIDALIA 59 33 58 38 / 0 0 0 5  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...BDL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page