650
FXUS62 KFFC 071403
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
903 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. A NEW SET OF ZONE
FORECASTS WILL BE SENT TO REMOVE THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 530 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A MID/UPPER HIGH
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
GEORGIA. PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT
HINGES ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
THE MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE WITH THE NAM KEEPING IDA OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A MORE RAPID NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST BY THAT TIME. THE FORMER SCENARIO KEEPS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THE DRIEST...WHILE THAT LATTER/PREFERRED SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEDGE FRONT OVER US AND A
RESPECTABLE OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT OVER AT LEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTH AS WELL ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST KEEPS IDA AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT
ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
RRH
AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SPOTTY FOG AT THE TYPICAL SITES...AHN MCN
FTY...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS 4-7KT
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
AROUND WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND
BACK TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
TDP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 40 75 47 70 / 0 0 0 5 10
ATLANTA 69 48 74 51 70 / 0 0 0 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 66 35 71 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 36 73 46 68 / 0 0 0 5 20
COLUMBUS 73 46 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 5 20
GAINESVILLE 68 43 73 48 68 / 0 0 0 5 10
MACON 72 42 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 5 20
ROME 71 36 75 45 71 / 0 0 0 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 71 34 75 44 69 / 0 0 0 5 20
VIDALIA 73 46 78 52 77 / 0 0 5 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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