363
FXUS62 KFFC 090317 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008
UPDATE
UPDATING POPS AGAIN FOR TRENDS. POCKETS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MEANDER ABOUT. THE GULF SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MACON APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN SWEPT
OUT...SO WILL DROP POPS OUT OF THAT PART OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE GA...SC...AND THE NC MOUNTAINS.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY 12Z WED ALLOWING THE NORTHERN GULF RIDGE TO BUILD IN. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL GET
INTO MORE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE
GFS LOOKS TO HAVE INITIALIZED VERY WELL WHEN COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
WV LOOP. A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND THEN BACK IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. THERE ARE A
FEW LITTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED/THU BUT
THEY MAINLY MOVE ACROSS TN/KY. THEY WILL KEEP GA UNDER A NICE AREA
OF MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCE POPS IN THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ALSO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE WED WILL MAKE ROOM FOR THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING IN GOOD ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP A
NICE CAP ON THE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITIES AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT THIS RIDGE
WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. THE SHORTWAVES THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE TN/KY AREA THU WILL SINK SOUTH INTO GA FRI/SAT
BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF CHANCE POPS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST SHOWS A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT HINTS AT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED OR BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND
1 THOUSAND FEET AT SUNRISE. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW
5 MILES IN HAZE OR FOG OVERNIGHT OR AT SUNRISE UNLESS ONE OF THE
AIRPORTS RECEIVES A LOT OF RAIN THIS EVENING. BY 14Z WE SHOULD AGAIN
SEE A ROUTINE SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CUMULUS FORMING AROUND
NOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 71 92 70 89 69 / 30 30 20 50 30
ATLANTA 71 89 71 87 69 / 30 30 20 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 66 84 66 82 66 / 30 30 50 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 68 90 68 86 67 / 30 30 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 71 91 74 90 73 / 30 40 20 40 30
GAINESVILLE 70 87 70 87 69 / 30 30 40 50 30
MACON 71 93 72 93 72 / 30 40 20 40 30
ROME 71 92 71 88 68 / 30 30 50 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 69 89 68 86 69 / 30 30 20 40 30
VIDALIA 70 92 71 91 72 / 30 40 20 40 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
01/15
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