057  
FXUS62 KFFC 301928  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH  
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL  
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK  
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS  
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...  
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL  
PRODUCERS.  
 
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA  
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE  
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG  
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY  
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY  
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR  
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.  
 
RW  
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED  
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY  
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN  
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY  
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN  
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY  
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD  
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW  
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH  
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A  
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY  
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION  
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...  
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD  
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED  
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF  
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY  
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
39/16  
 
AVIATION...  
18Z UPDATE...  
 
STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT  
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED  
ADDRESSING THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS  
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND NORTHWEST THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME DEVIATION TO AN EASTERLY  
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE  
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
RW  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 74 91 70 93 / 30 10 5 20  
ATLANTA 74 90 71 90 / 30 10 5 20  
BLAIRSVILLE 64 85 61 85 / 20 10 0 10  
CARTERSVILLE 70 90 66 91 / 20 10 5 10  
COLUMBUS 75 93 73 92 / 30 30 20 30  
GAINESVILLE 73 88 71 90 / 30 5 5 10  
MACON 75 94 73 93 / 40 40 20 30  
ROME 69 90 66 91 / 20 10 5 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 72 90 69 91 / 30 20 5 20  
VIDALIA 76 93 74 92 / 40 50 40 50  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....16  
AVIATION...RW  
 
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