117  
FXUS62 KFFC 300752  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
352 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
   
..SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND  
STATES BEGINNING TO BRIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND  
WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WILL MOVE INTO  
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING  
FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE  
DRIZZLE. NOT YOUR TYPICAL COOL SEASON CAD THOUGH AS THIS ONE WILL  
HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE PUNCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW  
CLOUDS LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF  
1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
WILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A FOCUS ALONG THE  
WEDGE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP.  
 
MEANWHILE...STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW TO  
IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF PRECIP COVERAGE  
FOR NW SECTIONS PRIOR TO 00Z AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE.  
DEFINITELY A SPLIT JET PATTERN WITH ONE JET STREAK ACROSS THE TN  
VALLEY AND THE OTHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. CONCERN WITH THIS  
WOULD BE A SPLIT IN PRECIP AS WELL WITH FAR NORTH GA GETTING GOOD  
COVERAGE AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT AREAS IN THE MIDDLE  
LACKING.  
 
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THIS WILL BE MORE TIED TO SEVERE  
POTENTIAL AND LESS TO DO WITH OVERALL COVERAGE AND WILL CONTINUE  
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AREAWIDE. SO SPEAKING OF THE SEVERE  
POTENTIAL...MODELS STILL NOT ALL THAT BULLISH WITH THE INSTABILITY  
AND KEEP IT IN THE TWO DISTINCT NORTH AND SOUTH AXIS REFERENCED  
ABOVE. DID GO HOWEVER 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS  
TODAY AND BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...WOULD EXPECT HIGHER  
INSTABILITY VALUES THAN WHAT MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT. SHEAR  
CERTAINLY WONT BE AN ISSUE WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF 850MB FLOW TO AID  
IN STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ON THE COLD AIDE AS  
WELL WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SO  
WEIGHING THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND WOULD  
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW  
PORTIONS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS MEANINGFUL A THREAT AS AREAS WEST OF  
HERE.  
 
DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH...ACTIVITY COULD BE WELL  
WEST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING FRI. THIS WOULD KEEP THE SECONDARY  
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL GA FRI AFTERNOON TO A  
MINIMUM. FOR NOW HAVE GONE LOW END SCT OVER THE THESE AREAS GIVING  
A NOD TO SLOWER MOVING NAM BUT COULD BE THAT FRI AFTERNOON IS  
CLEARER THAN GRIDS CURRENTLY REFLECT.  
 
DEESE  
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER RETURNS JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND WITH  
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE  
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY NEARING 80 IN NORTH  
GEORGIA AND WELL INTO THE MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.  
 
THE TRANQUIL WEATHER COMES TO A QUICK END AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN REVS  
BACK UP. BY LATE SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN CLOSE BEHIND. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL  
FOLLOW A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. THE GFS BRINGS  
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON  
MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE  
CENTER OF THE LOW. REGARDLESS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A  
CONCERN DURING THE MONDAY TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD OR  
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WRAPAROUND  
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LARGELY DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT THE BREAK IN  
STORMINESS WILL AGAIN BE BRIEF AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.  
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE  
AREA, THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING.  
NONETHELESS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURNING BY THE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.  
 
RW  
 

 
 
AVIATION...  
06Z UPDATE...  
 
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TAF SET MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. IT STILL ARRIVES IN AHN AS  
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE  
REMAINING TERMINALS. VFR CIGS FOR MOST OF TODAY AT THE TAF SITES  
IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIMING WILL BE  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE 04Z  
FOR ATL AND ADDED SOME WIND GUSTS TO THE PROB30 GROUP. THIS PROB30  
GROUP WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A TEMPO LATER TODAY.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING.  
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
DEESE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 83 59 76 51 / 40 80 60 5  
ATLANTA 83 58 74 52 / 30 90 40 5  
BLAIRSVILLE 75 54 67 46 / 40 100 50 5  
CARTERSVILLE 82 56 72 49 / 40 100 30 5  
COLUMBUS 85 60 77 54 / 20 90 40 5  
GAINESVILLE 80 57 72 51 / 40 100 50 5  
MACON 86 61 78 53 / 20 70 60 5  
ROME 82 55 72 48 / 60 100 30 5  
PEACHTREE CITY 83 57 75 50 / 30 90 40 5  
VIDALIA 87 64 82 57 / 40 50 40 5  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEESE  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...DEESE  
 
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