676
FXUS62 KFFC 091025
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IN THE FORMER ADVISORY AREA...CURRENT
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS POINT TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS EXCEPT HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES...AND
COMBINED WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR SLEET.
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AND COLD
FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY NARROW AND NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY. I EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AT A MINIMUM. I DO
NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH
SOILS ARE STILL NEAR SATURATION AND SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL
LIKELY SEE A SMALL TO MODERATE RISE.
MODELS SHUT OFF ALL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...
BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS PARTING SHOT OF LIGHT WINTRY
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA WEDNESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOME PRETTY CHILLY WIND
CHILL NUMBERS...BUT CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP US ABOVE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
COOL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AFFAIR FOR
NOW. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE WILL SEE WITH THE
FAST MOVING...AND WEAK...SHORT WAVE THE GFS AND ECMWF SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS STILL DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR SOUTH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW PAINTING LOW QPF NUMBERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. I HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW IN FOR NOW...BUT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES DO NOT SUPPORT HOLDING ON TO THE ...OR SNOW... WORDING
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MODELS KEEP THROWING OCCASIONAL...BRIEF...PERIODS OF LOW CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST AL TRACKING EAST TODAY. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING
GA THIS MORNING...ENDING AROUND 00Z. NO THUNDER EXPECTED. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR THIS MORNING AS RAIN APPROACHES AND REMAINING IFR
DURING THE DAY. CEILINGS IMPROVING AFTER 00Z. VISIBILITY 3 TO 5SM IN
RAIN...LOCALLY LOWER. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10KT...BECOMING
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20KT GUSTING TO 35KT AFTER 21Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 45 26 45 24 48 / 80 20 10 5 5
ATLANTA 46 25 44 25 48 / 100 10 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 43 25 38 19 43 / 100 20 20 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 45 26 42 23 46 / 100 10 10 5 5
COLUMBUS 50 29 49 27 51 / 90 10 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 43 26 43 24 46 / 100 20 10 5 5
MACON 53 26 48 26 51 / 70 10 5 5 5
ROME 44 25 42 25 45 / 100 20 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 47 27 44 23 48 / 100 10 5 5 5
VIDALIA 58 34 51 29 54 / 80 20 0 5 5
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
20/41
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