639  
FXUS62 KFFC 041853  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED  
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.  
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS  
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE  
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS  
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF  
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES  
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE  
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT  
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.  
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA  
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY  
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP  
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE  
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.  
 
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
NLISTEMAA  
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST  
GUIDANCE.  
 
BDL  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS  
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN  
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD  
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER  
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END  
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING  
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE  
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES  
ARE PLANNED.  
 
DEESE/01  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z UPDATE...  
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS  
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS  
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE  
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 69 84 69 86 / 50 60 40 50  
ATLANTA 70 81 69 84 / 60 60 40 50  
BLAIRSVILLE 63 76 63 79 / 60 60 50 50  
CARTERSVILLE 68 80 68 84 / 70 60 40 50  
COLUMBUS 72 85 71 87 / 60 60 40 50  
GAINESVILLE 68 80 68 83 / 60 60 50 50  
MACON 71 88 70 88 / 30 60 40 50  
ROME 68 81 68 85 / 70 60 40 50  
PEACHTREE CITY 69 82 69 85 / 60 60 40 50  
VIDALIA 73 92 72 89 / 30 60 40 50  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...  
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...  
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...  
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...  
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...  
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH  
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...  
WILKES.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA  
LONG TERM....BDL  
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA  
 
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