084  
FXUS62 KFFC 032345 AAA  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016  
 
...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT  
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA  
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW  
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF  
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40  
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL  
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING  
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND  
FIELD.  
 
POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE  
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD  
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY  
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS  
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER  
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  
 
FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS  
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW  
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND  
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE  
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND  
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.  
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT  
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT  
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA  
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR  
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39  
 
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/  
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO  
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE  
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND  
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A  
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.  
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD  
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER  
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE  
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY  
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A  
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
41  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.  
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD  
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 5K TO 7K FT. A BREEZY NW WIND WILL  
PREVAIL.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS  
16  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 54 74 51 67 / 20 10 20 10  
ATLANTA 55 71 52 65 / 20 20 20 10  
BLAIRSVILLE 49 66 45 58 / 10 40 50 20  
CARTERSVILLE 51 71 49 65 / 10 30 30 10  
COLUMBUS 57 75 56 69 / 20 5 10 5  
GAINESVILLE 54 70 50 63 / 10 20 20 10  
MACON 57 76 53 70 / 40 5 10 5  
ROME 51 72 48 66 / 10 40 40 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 52 72 50 67 / 20 10 20 5  
VIDALIA 62 78 57 71 / 60 10 5 5  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAKER/16  
LONG TERM....39  
AVIATION...BAKER/16  
 
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