378  
FXUS62 KGSP 171824  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
224 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, AS A WEAK FRONT COULD REACHES THE AREA.  
MUCH COOLER WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN  
RETURNING BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE  
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE  
EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE  
STORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT AS THE SHOWERS DEPART.  
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER  
WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS  
THURSDAY AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT  
ONLY GSP WILL THREATEN A RECORD HIGH WITH AVL AND CLT HAVING MUCH  
HIGHER RECORDS, BOTH SET IN 1896.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY: CONTINUING WITH A RATHER UNEVENTFUL SHORT  
TERM. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE A WEAK RIDGE SLIDING OFF THE COAST AT THE  
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, REPLACED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING  
THE AREA, OR AT LEAST ATTEMPTING TO. BY FRIDAY, IT'S POSSIBLE THE  
WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EXTEND INTO THE CWA AND AT LEAST BRING A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE PROBLEM IS THE EXTREMELY DRY BL.  
MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERTED-V EXTENDING FROM 800MB TO  
THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE IS MINIMAL INSTABILITY, ANY PRECIP THAT  
DOES DEVELOP ALOFT WILL FALL INTO A VERY DRY LAYER AND EVAPORATE.  
VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF THIS, BUT IF THE LAYER CAN BECOME  
MORE SATURATED, MEASURABLE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD  
BE SMALL WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY WORTHWHILE AMOUNTS BEING IN  
THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH  
FOR THIS. AS FAR AS CONVECTION, THE GFS SHOWS BETTER INSTABILITY BUT  
ALSO HIGH AMOUNTS OF DCAPE. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL FORCING  
AVAILABLE WITH INTERMITTENT DPVA ACROSS THE CWA. CAN'T RULE OUT AN  
ISOLATED STORM BUT WITH THE HIGHER DCAPE, QUICKLY DECAYING STORMS  
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS WITH ANY OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, FLOW ALOFT  
TURNS MORE QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY TEMPS  
WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY, AS THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY WILL BRING  
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY: OUT WEST, AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN AND  
CONTINUES THE DRY SPELL. A STRONG SFC HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL  
CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND TURNS WINDS N/NE AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES  
EASTWARD. MODELS SUGGEST AN IN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING AND KEEP TEMPS  
MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE COULD TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING  
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY. BY THE START OF THE WORK  
WEEK, A LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE  
DIVERGES ON THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A SPLIT TROUGH DIVING  
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WHERE THE  
EURO HAS MINIMAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW. EITHER WAY, THIS WOULDN'T  
BE A SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND IF IT DEVELOPS, COULD BRING  
SOME RAINFALL. HOW MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS THE LOW COULD  
REMAIN ELUSIVE. BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS  
AMPLIFIES, TURNING FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE NW. CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THE  
AREA MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF PRECIP.  
OVERALL, THE PATTERN KEEPS A MILD AND TAME LOOK. WINDS SHOULD BECOME  
MORE W/SW ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS  
TO BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S. TEMPERATURES DROP FOR  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S FROM THE N/NE SFC FLOW. LOWS  
APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MONDAY  
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS AT THE  
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO FREEZING BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL MINOR  
FROST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO  
THE EVENING, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING LOWER THAN LOW VFR AT THE  
TAF SITES. LOW VFR IN SHRA, AND POSSIBLY A TSRA, LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ALSO IN PLACE INTO EARLY  
EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY OR CIG IN ANY HEAVIER  
SHOWER. VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING  
SHOWERS. THAT SAID, MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY AT  
KAVL. LIGHT W TO NW WIND AND SKC FOR THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND PERIODIC  
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP FROM THU NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE  
REMAINS LOW.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
RECORDS FOR 04-18  
 
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE  
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW  
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------  
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905  
1891  
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001  
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905  
1967  
 
 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CP  
NEAR TERM...RWH  
SHORT TERM...CP  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...RWH  
CLIMATE...  
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