480  
AXGM70 PGUM 260611  
DGTGUM  
PMZ181-GUZ001>004-030200-  
MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
400 PM CHST THU APR 26 2018  
 
...RAINFALL RECOVERING TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL AND MARIANA  
ISLANDS...  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL  
IN MAY AND REMAIN IN ENSO-NEUTRAL THROUGH SUMMER WITH A TREND TOWARD CONTINUED  
ENSO-NEUTRAL OR WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE FALL. MORE SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY  
FALLEN OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF  
DRY WEATHER MAY STILL OCCUR...BUT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD BEGIN  
TO MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC  
TROUGH. THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL HELP BRING SPRING AND SUMMER  
RAINS BACK TO NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.  
 
SATELLITE AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL  
DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND MARSHALL ISLANDS IN THE COMING  
DAYS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS OVER NORTHERN YAP STATE AND THE  
REPUBLIC OF PALAU BUT THE REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL.  
 
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES THAT  
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED AT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS...THEY REMAIN CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY DO-L (LONG-TERM DROUGHT  
LEVEL 0 OF 4) AND RECOVERY CONTINUES AT A SLOW PACE. GUAM...SAIPAN...TINIAN AND  
ROTA HAVE IMPROVED FROM MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4)  
TO ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM DRYNESS DROUGHT LEVEL 0 OF 4) AND RECOVERY  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...  
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY HAVE OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA  
THE LAST FEW DAYS. UTIRIK AND WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND  
ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK  
ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS RECENTLY. RAINFALL SHOULD  
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL.  
 
OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED  
FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU... MILI...JALUIT AND AILINGALAPLAP AND THESE LOCATIONS  
HAVE HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL TO AVERT ANY DROUGHT IMPACTS.  
 
MARIANA ISLANDS...  
 
GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS(CNMI)...  
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS  
SO THAT GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE NO LONGER IN MODERATE DROUGHT BUT  
ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY. THERE MAY STILL BE SHORT PERIODS OF DRY  
WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEKS BUT THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN RAINFALL SHOULD  
DOMINATE.  
 
IN PARTICULAR FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WAS GREATER  
THAN USUAL EARLIER IN THE YEAR. VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES SHOULD GRADUALLY  
IMPROVE NOW AND SOME WELLS NEAR THE COAST MAY NEED MORE TIME TO RECOVER. GUAM  
AND THE POPULATED CNMI ISLANDS HAD A SEVERE WILDFIRE SEASON BUT NOW THE  
WILDFIRE DANGER LEVEL HAS IMPROVED.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE SEASONAL AND FAVORABLE PATTERN AND  
RECENTLY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.  
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS STILL INDICATE THAT THE  
CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN  
MAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER.  
 
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...  
 
JAN FEB MAR NORMAL %NORMAL APR NORMAL %NORMAL  
(1-31) 1-28) (1-31) (1-31) (1-31) (1-25)(1-25) (1-25)  
 
UTIRIK 3.56 0.61 8.50 2.44 348 3.50 2.55 137  
WOTJE 4.37 2.00 10.61 2.03 522 6.71 2.93 229  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 14.46 4.20 15.55 3.56 437 7.61 5.17 147  
MAJURO 15.76 8.29 22.54 7.55 299 9.81 8.03 122  
SAIPAN 2.97 2.25 0.93 1.93 48 8.09 1.93 419  
TINIAN 3.94 2.29 0.94 2.40 39 8.79 2.26 389  
ROTA 2.24 2.39 1.55 3.05 51 7.03 3.88 181  
GUAM AP 0.94 2.68 1.40 2.77 51 6.80 2.98 228  
WOLEAI ATOLL 14.45 2.72 6.32 8.20 77 9.59 7.03 136  
YAP 11.64 8.44 12.29 5.34 230 3.80 4.77 80  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS AND MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEASONAL  
PATTERNS. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL IN  
THE COMING WEEKS.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN...  
SATELLITE AND OBSERVER REPORTS SHOWED THAT RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES FELL  
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS PAST WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE  
MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND NEAR-NORMAL RAINFALL  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE YEAR.  
 
RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) IS EXPECTED  
TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. RAINFALL OF 2 TO  
4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS THROUGH 10 MAY.  
 
ISLANDS SOUTH OF 10N NOT INCLUDING MAJURO...  
RAINFALL WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH AND AREAS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO  
WOTJE WILL RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT WEEK WITH VARIABLE  
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 10 MAY.  
 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO...  
RAINFALL FOR MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL  
BE SUBSTANTIAL AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES UNTIL 3 MAY AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM  
TODAY UNTIL 10 MAY.  
 
THE MARIANA ISLANDS...  
   
GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
 
 
THE WEATHER WILL STILL BE DRY AT TIMES...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE COMING WEEKS. GRADUALLY IMPROVING RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANAS.  
 
RAINFALL FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO  
ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS UNTIL 10 MAY. RAINFALL FOR ISLANDS FARTHER  
NORTH OF SAIPAN WILL BE FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS UNTIL 3 MAY AND THEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH 10 MAY.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
DROUGHT RECOVERY WILL REQUIRE MORE TIME IN SOME AREAS...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE  
BEEN IMPROVING AND THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR  
THIS EVENT. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR  
YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE  
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT  
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...  
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE  
CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/  
 
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...  
THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE SOUTH OF 10N FROM 130E TO 170E. THIS  
INCLUDES SOUTHERN PALAU AND PARTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. SEE  
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP FOR  
MORE INFORMATION  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO  
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND  
SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE  
AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND KOROR PALAU. ALSO THE USAID  
SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM  
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232  
HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV  
(LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
 
GUARD/SIMPSON/LANDER  
 

 
 
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