755  
AXGM70 PGUM 200220 CCA  
DGTGUM  
PMZ172-PMZ181-040200-  
CHUUK-MAJURO-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
1205 PM CHST THU APR 20 2017  
 
...THE EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN  
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL JUNE AND SEASONAL  
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
MONTHS. VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS NORTH OF 8N TO WAKE ISLAND FROM THE  
DATE LINE WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS...MOST OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...THE REPUBLIC  
OF PALAU AND MOST OF THE US-AFFILIATED MICRONESIAN ISLANDS SOUTH OF  
8N SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.  
 
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR  
STILL INDICATES THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS ARE IN SHORT-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).  
ALSO...KWAJALEIN ATOLL ALONG WITH LOCAL COMMUNITIES...ESPECIALLY  
ENEBOUJ AND EBADON ARE IN SHORT-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL  
1 OF 4). SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED A FEW  
SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...  
EXTREME DROUGHT IS AFFECTING WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN ATOLLS. THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL  
ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY...BUT THE FAR NORTHERN  
MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND ISLANDS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI  
AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...MALOELAP...  
LIKIEP AND AILUK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THESE AREAS.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE  
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH JUNE...AND  
CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP  
AS EARLY AS JULY OR AUGUST. BUT...THE SKILL OF THE COMPUTER MODELS  
IS NOT SO GREAT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND SHOULD IMPROVE BY JUNE.  
ISLANDS NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME DROUGHT  
AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE DURING THE COMING WEEKS.  
 
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...  
 
DEC JAN FEB MAR APR APR APR  
(1-19) NORMAL % NORMAL  
 
WOTJE 1.50 0.08 4.48 0.99 0.61 2.22 27  
UTIRIK 1.99 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.90 00  
MAJURO 11.77 17.65 7.59 13.07 5.57 5.86 95  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 10.36 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.14 3.93 80  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION  
CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET  
AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...  
THE UTIRIK AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY SPOTTY  
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...  
ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP...MALOELAP AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS RECENTLY.  
COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A  
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT  
10 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE  
ONE OR TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND RAINFALL FOR KWAJALEIN ATOLL AND  
WOTJE COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO  
SHOULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK  
HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS AND THAT SYSTEMS ARE  
LIKELY ON AILUK...WOTJE AND MEJIT. EVEN WITH RO UNITS... LOCAL  
VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL  
WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS  
ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.  
 
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE WELL-MAINTAINED SINCE PASSING SHOWERS  
COULD AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE  
THURSDAY 4 MAY 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED  
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER  
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND  
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...  
 
NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM  
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.  
 
THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/  
 
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...  
THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN  
PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION  
SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT  
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE  
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH  
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY  
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES  
AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE  
NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA  
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...  
 
WFO TIYAN GUAM  
3232 HUENEME RD  
BARRIGADA GU 96913  
PHONE: 671-472-0946  
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
 
SIMPSON/GUARD  
 

 
 
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