251  
AXGM70 PGUM 200110  
DGTGUM  
PMZ181-030200-  
MAJURO-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 20 2017  
 
...THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN  
MARSHALL ISLANDS BUT SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED...  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER INTO  
EARLY FALL. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE  
INTENSITIES. IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER  
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE  
WESTERN MICRONESIA AND PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.  
 
VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE  
WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN  
REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE REST OF  
MICRONESIA HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAIN TO AVERT DROUGHT. MOST OF THE  
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI...KOSRAE...  
NUKUORO...AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAVE HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL  
PRIMARILY FROM AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  
 
THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES  
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS BEGUN...BUT THE  
PROCESS WAS ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN NORMAL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING  
DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING EARLY TO MID SUMMER RAINS TO  
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE HAVE RECENTLY  
BENEFITED FROM THOSE RAINS.  
 
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR  
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS IS IN SHORT-  
TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). WOTJE  
ATOLL AND NEARBY ATOLLS ARE IN LONG-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT  
LEVEL 2 OF 4). KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS HAVE IMPROVED TO A RATING  
OF D-NOTHING.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
ON APRIL 24...THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS  
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...AND THIS  
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF JUNE.  
 
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...  
SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-  
WIND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EXTREME  
DROUGHT IS AFFECTING UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ATOLLS  
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN  
THE COMING WEEKS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. ISLANDS ALONG  
AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND  
ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM  
DROUGHT. SOME PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...  
WOTHO...MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE AND LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS.  
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...  
JALUIT AND AILINGLAPLAP...AND THESE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO HAVE HAD  
ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL INTO JULY TO AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE  
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE FALL.  
CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEAR EQUAL CHANCE FOR A CONTINUATION  
OF ENSO-NEUTRAL OR A TRANSITION TO EL NINO BY OCTOBER. ANY 2017 EL  
NINO SHOULD NOT BE STRONG. CONFIDENCE ON THE COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT  
HAS IMPROVED OVER THAT FROM THE SPRING. EASTERN MICRONESIAN ISLANDS  
NORTH OF 10N ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DROUGHT...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES IN THE TUTT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST AND  
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA.  
 
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...  
 
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL JUL %  
(1-18) NORMAL  
 
WOTJE 0.08 4.48 0.99 5.23 1.14 8.86 4.75 190  
UTIRIK 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.38 1.60 0.98 36  
AILINGALAPLAP 12.75 7.39 7.76 9.82 2.82 9.45 6.32 70  
JALUIT 9.94 13.50 11.23 9.58 2.33 5.41 5.81 86  
MAJURO 17.65 7.59 13.07 10.36 4.93 13.03 7.23 104  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.44 5.20 10.80 4.32 78  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL  
MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING  
ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...  
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)  
IS EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND  
A HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH  
OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE NEAR ONE INCH DURING THE  
NEXT 5 DAYS AND UP TO TWO INCHES THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST  
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4  
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE  
NEXT 10 DAYS.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...  
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)  
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES  
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.  
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER  
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE  
THURSDAY 3 AUGUST 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY  
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL  
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO  
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT  
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC  
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/  
 
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...  
CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT AND WARNING AREAS HAVE EXPANDED FROM THE  
PHILIPPINES TO NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. WATCH AREAS EXTEND  
FARTHER NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20N AND 30N TO THE DATE LINE AND BETWEEN  
5N AND 5S TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THIS INCLUDES CHUUK...POHNPEI AND  
KOSRAE STATES AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE  
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT  
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE  
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH  
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM   
..UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE
 
THE WEATHER  
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL  
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM  
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...  
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-  
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
 
SIMPSON/GUARD  
 

 
 
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