230  
AXGM70 PGUM 140058  
DGTGUM  
PMZ181-280200-  
MAJURO-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
1100 AM CHST THU SEP 14 2017  
 
...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS GETTING SOME  
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RELIEF BUT STILL DRIER THAN EXPECTED...  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE  
YEAR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE LA NINA OR LA NINA-  
LIKE CONDITIONS THE LAST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR...BUT THE IMPACTS  
SHOULD BE RATHER MINOR. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN  
MICRONESIA THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT SHOULD VACILLATE BETWEEN  
WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES. DURING LATE AUGUST THROUGH SEPTEMBER  
AND EARLY OCTOBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN MICRONESIA AND  
COULD PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA. ONE SUCH WEAK EPISODE  
AFFECTED THE MARIANA ISLANDS DURING 8-10 SEPTEMBER.  
 
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY BUT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS  
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT UTIRIK AND  
WOTJE. NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...BUT LIKE THE REST OF  
MICRONESIA...THESE ISLANDS HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT  
DROUGHT. JALUIT HAS BEEN RATHER DRY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
IT.  
 
THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES  
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS  
INTENSIFIED...INDUCING LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.  
 
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR  
SHOWS UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM  
ITS SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT STATUS (DROUGHT  
LEVEL 4 OF 4) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).  
ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE LIKELY AT THE  
SAME EXTREME DROUGHT LEVEL. WOTJE AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN LONG-  
TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). WOTJE DID RECEIVE 3.10  
INCHES OF RAIN ON 6 SEPTEMBER. KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN  
A RATING OF D-NOTHING.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...  
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION AND  
MORE PERSISTENT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN  
MARSHALL ISLANDS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK...  
RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND  
WILL SEE IMPROVED RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER. WHILE WOTJE HAS BEEN  
DRIER THAN EXPECTED...RAINFALL IS IMPROVING.  
 
OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...  
MALOELAP...UJAE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS BUT FUTURE RAINFALL  
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE  
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST TO THE END OF THE  
YEAR. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL  
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SOME INCREASED PROBABILITY OF A DEVELOPING LA  
NINA PATTERN. EARLIER...MODELS SUGGESTED A DEVELOPING EL NINO  
PATTERN...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING.  
 
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...  
 
AUG (1-30) SEP SEP SEP %  
(1-13) NORMAL NORMAL  
WOTJE 1.26 5.08 3.25 156  
UTIRIK 4.59 2.53 4.58 55  
AILINGALAPLAP 6.20 2.95 4.55 65  
JALUIT 5.22 3.10 4.72 66  
MAJURO 13.00 5.00 5.01 100  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 6.28 10.08 4.72 214  
 
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL JUL %  
(1-31) NORMAL  
 
WOTJE 0.08 4.48 0.99 5.23 1.14 8.86 5.55 124  
UTIRIK 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.38 1.60 1.74 36  
AILINGALAPLAP 12.75 7.39 7.76 9.82 2.82 9.45 7.91 70  
JALUIT 9.94 13.50 11.23 9.58 2.33 5.41 8.56 73  
MAJURO 17.65 7.59 13.07 10.36 4.93 13.03 12.52 105  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.44 5.20 10.80 6.91 68  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
THE SEASONAL MOVEMENT OF THE SUN WILL RANGE FROM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD  
IN LATE AUGUST FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF MICRONESIA TO DIRECTLY OVERHEAD  
IN MID-SEPTEMBER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MODERATE THE ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY  
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND  
MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...  
COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE  
VARIABLE. RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO  
UTIRIK) ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES THROUGH THE  
NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (BUT NORTH OF 8N)KWAJALEIN  
TO AILINGALAPLAP TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE TWO TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES  
FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL  
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...  
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)  
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES  
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.  
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER  
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE  
ISSUED 28 SEPTEMBER 2017. AT THAT TIME WE WILL RE-ASSESS THE NEED  
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL  
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION  
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO  
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT  
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC  
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/  
 
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...  
THE SEVERITY OF CORAL REEF BLEACHING ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS  
LIKELY BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY BY RECENT MONSOON FLOW AND BY THE  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT BECAME TYPHOON TALIM. DESPITE THIS...THE  
AREA FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN STILL REMAINS AT THE HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL  
(2). NORTHERN CHUUK AND YAP ISLANDS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALERT LEVEL  
2. OTHERWISE...CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT LEVEL 1 INCLUDES MOST OF  
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MICRONESIA . A BLEACH WARNING  
EXTENDS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE  
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT  
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE  
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH  
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM   
..UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE
 
THE WEATHER  
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL  
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM  
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...  
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-  
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
 
GUARD/M. AYDLETT  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab GU Page Main Text Page