340  
AXGM70 PGUM 220048  
DGTGUM  
PMZ172-PMZ181-060200-  
CHUUK-MAJURO-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
1045 AM CHST THU JUN 22 2017  
 
...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN  
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER INTO  
EARLY FALL. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE  
INTENSITIES. IN AUGUST...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS  
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN MICRONESIA  
AND PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.  
 
VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE  
WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS WELL. THE REST  
OF MICRONESIA NORTH OF 8 DEGREES NORTH HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL  
BUT HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAIN TO AVERT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE  
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI...KOSRAE...  
NUKUORO...AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAVE HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL  
PRIMARILY FROM AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  
 
THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES  
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS FINALLY STARTED  
TO SET UP...BUT THE SET-UP IS ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN NORMAL. THESE  
WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING SPRINGTIME AND  
EARLY SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. THEY ALSO  
HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL PATTERNS OVER AND AROUND THE MAIN ISLANDS  
OF MICRONESIA.  
 
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR  
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS IS IN SHORT-  
TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).  
ALSO...KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE ATOLLS AND NEARBY ATOLLS ARE IN SHORT-  
TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). SATELLITE IMAGES DURING  
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWED PATCHY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF  
EASTERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
ON APRIL 24..THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS  
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...AND THIS  
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF JUNE  
 
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...  
EXTREME DROUGHT IS AFFECTING UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND WESTERN  
ATOLLS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN  
DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N TO 10N SUCH  
AS WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...LIKIEP...AILUK...AND  
ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL SUFFER FROM CONTINUED DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...  
WOTHO...MALOELAP...UJAE AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR ALL OF THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH MAY WAS RELATIVELY DRY FOR  
MAJURO...ARNO...AILINGALAPLAP...NAMU AND JALUIT...THESE LOCATIONS  
HAVE HAD ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL UP TO MAY TO AVERT A DROUGHT.  
 
CHUUK STATE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...  
POLOWAT AND FANANU AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN  
CHUUK CHUUK STATE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RECENTLY BUT REMAIN  
ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL 0 OF 4). MEASUREMENTS AT THE WESTERN  
ISLAND OF POLOWAT OF CHUUK STATE HAVE BEEN LOW FOR SOME TIME. WE  
SUSPECT AN EXPOSURE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN GAUGE SINCE WE HAVE NOT  
RECEIVED ANY FEEDBACK ON IMPACTS FROM THE WESTERN ISLANDS.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE  
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH SUMMER...  
AND CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS MIGHT  
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER. CONFIDENCE ON THE COMPUTER MODEL  
OUTPUT HAS IMPROVED OVER THAT FROM THE SPRING. EASTERN MICRONESIAN  
ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE STILL EXPERIENCING EXTREME DROUGHT...BUT  
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TUTT HAVE STARTED MOVING TOWARD  
THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA.  
 
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...  
 
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUN JUN %  
(1-20) NORMAL  
 
WOTJE 0.08 4.48 0.99 5.23 1.14 4.19 3.74 112  
UTIRIK 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.38 0.50 2.49 20  
AILINGALAPLAP 12.75 7.39 7.76 9.82 2.82 5.59 7.29 77  
JALUIT 9.94 13.50 11.23 9.58 2.33 2.49 6.91 36  
MAJURO 17.65 7.59 13.07 10.36 4.93 6.84 7.29 94  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.44 5.20 5.96 5.49 109  
FANANU 7.27 2.58 5.82 3.50 6.33 5.49 6.91 79  
ONUON 4.50 3.27 6.83 5.60 3.47 3.45 7.23 48  
POLOWAT 3.98 2.63 2.66 3.04 4.51 1.78 7.20 25  
WENO CHUUK 11.37 8.27 15.74 7.15 9.41 5.71 8.14 70  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL  
MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY MORE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING  
ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...  
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS  
WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP...  
MALOELAP AND OTHER NEARBY ATOLLS/ISLANDS RECENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS  
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS BUT INDICATE AN IMPROVED RAINFALL PATTERN IN  
THE COMING DAYS.  
 
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)  
COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES  
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO  
WOTJE) SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10  
DAYS.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...  
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)  
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES  
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.  
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER  
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.  
 
HALL ISLANDS NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON...  
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS MAY RECEIVE  
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES  
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IF THAT RAINFALL DOES OCCUR...IT WILL HELP  
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR THE HALL ISLANDS...BUT THE AREA STILL  
REMAINS DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE ISLANDS OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN  
CHUUK STATE WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY WITH SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1  
TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE MONITORED.  
 
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE WELL-MAINTAINED AT ALL LOCATIONS SINCE  
PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE  
THURSDAY 6 JULY 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED  
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER  
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO  
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT  
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC  
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/  
 
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...  
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AREAS ARE FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE  
MARIANA ISLANDS...BETWEEN 20N AND 10N. WATCH AREAS CONTINUE SOUTH  
AND WEST OF 25N160E...INCLUDING PALAU...AND YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI  
STATES AND FARTHER ALONG THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF 5N FROM 160E TO BEYOND  
THE DATE LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT  
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE  
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH  
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM   
..UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE
 
THE WEATHER  
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL  
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM  
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...  
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-  
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
 
GUARD/SIMPSON  
 

 
 
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