659  
AXGM70 PGUM 280307  
DGTGUM  
PMZ181-120200-  
MAJURO-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
1245 PM CHST THU SEP 28 2017  
 
...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS FINALLY GETTING  
NEEDED RAINFALL RELIEF..FINAL DROUGHT STATEMENT...  
 
SYNOPSIS...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR WILL GIVE WAY TO  
LA NINA OR LA NINA-LIKE CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS OF  
THE YEAR. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH  
INDICATING THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS COULD SOON DEVELOP AND LAST AT  
LEAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. SINCE THE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK  
OR MODERATE...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE RATHER MINOR. TRADE WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT  
SHOULD VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES THROUGH THE  
FALL. SHORT PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND  
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY AFFECT WESTERN MICRONESIA AND  
BRIEFLY PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA IN EARLY TO MID OCTOBER.  
THE LAST EPISODE AFFECTED THE MARIANA ISLANDS DURING 8-10 SEPTEMBER  
AND IT WAS WEAK.  
 
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN NORMAL  
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT UTIRIK. THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD  
PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL UPPER  
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS PERSISTED AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE  
AREAS OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.  
 
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR  
SHOWS THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS REMAINS AT SHORT-  
TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT STATUS (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).  
ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE LIKELY AT THE  
SAME EXTREME DROUGHT LEVEL. ALL OF THESE ARE IMPROVING. WOTJE AND  
NEARBY ATOLLS HAVE IMPROVED TO A RATING OF D-NOTHING. KWAJALEIN  
RECEIVED 5.60 INCHES OF RAIN ON 10 SEPTEMBER. KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY  
ATOLLS REMAIN IN A RATING OF D-NOTHING.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS... SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW  
WEEKS SHOWED PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND MORE PERSISTENT TRADE-  
WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.  
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK... RONGELAP...  
BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND SHOULD SEE  
IMPROVED RAINFALL IN OCTOBER.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE  
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS COULD TRANSITION TO LA NINA  
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING  
THIS TRANSITION...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE NEARLY EQUAL FOR REMAINING  
IN THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN.  
 
SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...  
 
AUG (1-30) SEP SEP SEP %  
(1-27) NORMAL NORMAL  
WOTJE 1.26 12.11 6.27 193  
UTIRIK 4.59 3.80 8.83 43  
AILINGALAPLAP 6.20 9.28 8.78 106  
JALUIT 5.22 6.68 8.77 76  
MAJURO 13.00 19.71 10.83 182  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 6.28 20.90 9.80 213  
 
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL JUL %  
(1-31) NORMAL  
 
WOTJE 0.08 4.48 0.99 5.23 1.14 8.86 5.55 124  
UTIRIK 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.38 1.60 1.74 36  
AILINGALAPLAP 12.75 7.39 7.76 9.82 2.82 9.45 7.91 70  
JALUIT 9.94 13.50 11.23 9.58 2.33 5.41 8.56 73  
MAJURO 17.65 7.59 13.07 10.36 4.93 13.03 12.52 105  
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.44 5.20 10.80 6.91 68  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE SUN IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR  
NOW. THUS...A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER WILL MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MARSHALL  
ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN  
SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...  
 
ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON  
THE 5-DAY AND 10-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ONE MODEL INDICATING AS  
MUCH AS 100 PERCENT MORE RAIN THAN THE OTHER. RAINFALL FOR AREAS  
NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) IS EXPECTED TO BE  
ABOUT ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0  
INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (BUT NORTH  
OF 8N)KWAJALEIN TO AILINGALAPLAP TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE ABOUT 1.5 TO  
2.0 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND FROM 1.75 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE  
NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL  
ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.  
 
NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...THE CORAL BLEACH WARNING AREA OVER  
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A CORAL REEF BLEACHING  
WATCH AREA. THE AREA FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN STILL REMAINS AT THE  
HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL (2). NORTHERN CHUUK AND YAP STATESS HAVE BEEN  
ADDED TO ALERT LEVEL 2. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS  
WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FINAL DROUGHT  
INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR  
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION  
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO  
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT  
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC  
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE  
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH  
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM   
..UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE
 
THE WEATHER  
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL  
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM  
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...  
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-  
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
 
GUARD/W. AYDLETT  
 

 
 
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