758
AXPQ20 PGUM 032115
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
715 AM CHST SAT MAY 4 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) HANGS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR IN
WESTERN MICRONESIA, ENTERING THE REGION AT 3N130E, PASSING
THROUGH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS ROUGHLY CENTERED AT
1N131E, 3N139E, AND 1N150E, BEFORE CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 151E.
MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE,
MAINLY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A SERIES OF TRADE-WIND TROUGHS ARE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN
MICRONESIA, STEMMING FROM THE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NET,
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG THE AXIS AND WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TRAILING THESE FEATURES. THIS SPANS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF PALAU, YAP, AND CHUUK STATES. IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG A TROUGH BETWEEN
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. AN AREA OF SHEARED, MODERATE TO DEEP
CONVECTION IS FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND NORTH
KIRIBATI, WHERE A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF TRADE-CONVERGENCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
A SHORT SEGMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AT
25N139E, NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, AND EXITS THE REGION AT 25N150E.
A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALONG AND
WITHIN 150 MILES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
..DISCUSSION
A MODERATELY ACTIVE TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH VARIOUS
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS PROPAGATING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE NET IN WESTERN MICRONESIA.
THE SERIES OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE NET ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT A BROAD
CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NET AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NET AND THE TRAILING
TRADE-CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF MICRONESIA NEXT WEEK.
THE STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS,
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE REGION.
IC
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