755
FXPQ50 PGUM 041902
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
502 AM CHST SUN MAY 5 2024
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES REIGN OVER THE MARIANAS WITH THE WORST OF IS NEAR
SAIPAN. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET TO THE FAR WEST.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AND ARE GENTLE.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, A FEW TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST FEW TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH INCREASE OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MAJOR CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST WAS THE MORE ROBUST TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST
MODEL RUN SUGGEST THAT THE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WAS A TAD OVER
ZEALOUS, SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE DROPPED FOR THE OVER NIGHT FORECAST.
MARINE
A NORTH AND EASTERLY SWELLS ARE REIGNING OVER THE REGION. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN SWELL WILL
INCREASE. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT IS THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE. SURF IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE 9 FOOT MARK ON NORTH FACING REEFS AND THE 12 FOOT
MARK ALONG EAST FACING REEFS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK THEN GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CAUSING CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY SHOWERS
MAINLY BETWEEN 1N AND 7N ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KOSRAE STATE AND
SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE, AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR BUTARITARI. ASCAT
ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION AT ABOUT 1.5N161E; EMBEDDED IN
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) THAT EXTENDS MUCH FARTHER WESTWARD
PAST SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE. MAJURO REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE SO FAR,
WHILE KOSRAE HAS BEEN LOW-END SCATTERED. A WEAK TROUGH HAS CROSSED
THE DATE LINE AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
REPEAT: THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI, SUCH AS WOTJE, AND ISLANDS
NORTH OF 7N ARE DRY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE WEEKEND
AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS, AS THE CONVERGENT TRADE FLOW
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH NEXT WEEK, SOME OF THESE ISLANDS MAY START TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY GREATLY ON POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS,
WITH SOME LIKE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SHOWING ABOUT 1.30 INCHES, WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT ABOUT 4.3 INCHES, WHILE THE
GFS SITS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FEET AND PERHAPS UP TO 8 FEET IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE
EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND PALAU
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KOROR; MAINLY BETWEEN 7N AND 3N FROM
135E TO 140E. ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET)
MEANDERS WESTWARD FROM WELL SOUTH OF CHUUK ALONG 1N TO 3N PAST FAR
SOUTHERN PALAU TO BEYOND 130E. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INTRODUCED FOR KOROR TODAY JUST BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THEIR SOUTHEAST. YAP REMAINS IN A DRY TRADE-WIND
FLOW. MODELS INDICATE UNSTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
PALAU AND SOUTHEAST YAP STATE, AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT TIMES THIS WEEK, AND POSSIBLY MOVING NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO
HOPEFULLY GIVE THE YAP AND ULITHI AREAS A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WITH COMBINED SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MODELS SHOW A NORTH SWELL ENTERING THE REGION BY MIDWEEK AND
THAT MAY CAUSE ELEVATED SURF ALONG THE NORTH SHORES.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
MICRONESIA: SIMPSON
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