624  
FXPQ60 PGUM 220759  
AFDPQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
600 PM CHST THU FEB 22 2018  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE  
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS EARLY THIS EVENING. COMBINED  
SEAS WERE MAINLY 5 TO 7 FEET AT THE BUOYS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF GUAM, BETWEEN YAP AND  
KOROR WAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD. CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTH AND  
NORTHEAST SIDE ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH CONVERGENCE INTO THE SYSTEM  
HAS GENERATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWER'S WERE MORE  
NUMEROUS EARLIER AND WILL DECREASE EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY  
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER AWAY.  
 
GENERALLY, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES  
EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME  
INCREASED CLOUDS ON SATURDAY, BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO  
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTH SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND EAST SWELL WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, THE EASTERLY SWELL  
MAY BUILD A LITTLE. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 8 FEET WITH A  
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS HAVE SURGED ACROSS THIS AREA INTO CHUUK  
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR POHNPEI, KOSRAE AND MAJURO THRU THIS WEEKEND. SATELLITE  
SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN  
MAJURO AND 10N, BUT VERY DRY WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N.  
 

 
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AT 5N139E  
THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALSO, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS  
ARE SURGING ACROSS CHUUK STATE, AND ACROSS YAP STATE TOWARD PALAU.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL CHUUK  
STATE, AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR YAP AND KOROR.  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AT KOROR, YAP AND  
CHUUK THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, THEN MODERATE TRADES AND DRIER WEATHER  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...NONE.  
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NIERENBERG/SIMPSON  
 
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