584  
FXPQ60 PGUM 260651  
AFDPQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
317 PM CHST FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE  
WIND PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS SHOW SEAS  
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOT MUCH CHANGED FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. A RATHER BENIGN  
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS  
STILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT  
THIS IS NOT LOOKING VERY LIKELY BASED ON WHAT IS SEEN UPSTREAM ON  
SATELLITE. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SATURDAY, THOUGH PATCHY CLOUDINESS IS MORE  
LIKELY. OTHERWISE, THE MARIANAS WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER DRY WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET FOR  
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, YET THE BUOYS STILL SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 2  
AND 4 FEET. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO THE 4 TO 6 FEET LEVELS OVER  
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS  
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE FALLING TO GENTLE.  
 

 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
THE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOSRAE, SOUTH OF MAJURO WITH PATCHES  
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF POHNPEI. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE THE PRODUCT  
OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH ASCAT DID DEPICT A SURFACE TROUGH  
SOUTH OF MAJURO. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BLENDING WITH THE TRADE-WIND  
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE WHOLE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. EXPECT  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO  
TONIGHT WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING AT MAJURO THROUGH  
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PUSH  
ACROSS POHNPEI SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE  
MOVES OVER THAT AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
EASTERN HALF OF MICRONESIA AS MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF SHOWERS  
BREAKING UP BY SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF SHOWER WILL BE PRESENT  
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
FORECAST.  
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS  
THE WESTERN HALF OF MICRONESIA. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED  
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF  
CHUUK WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND TRADE-WIND  
CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THIS AREA PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA  
MOVING SOUTH OF PALAU SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF  
PALAU, BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TOUGH WILL KEEP SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT  
PALAU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  
 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER CHUUK BY SATURDAY NIGHT  
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
THAT LOCATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...NONE.  
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
KLEESCHULTE/ZIOBRO  
 
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