267  
FXPQ60 PGUM 140854  
AFDPQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
654 PM CHST TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS EARLY THIS  
EVENING. THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING  
OBSERVED ON RADAR. COMBINED SEAS ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A CIRCULATION NEAR 10N149E WILL PASS SOUTH OF GUAM. IT WILL MOVE  
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THEN MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT HAPPENS TO IT FROM  
THERE. THERE ARE SEVERAL SOLUTIONS WITH THE PATH OF THE LOW, BUT  
THE CONSENSUS WANT TO BRING SOME KIND OF CIRCULATION CENTER,  
HOWEVER DISORGANIZED NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE MARIANAS.  
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE STRONGEST EFFECTS LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND  
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE  
LOW AND EVEN IF THERE ARE ONE OR TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS.  
REGARDLESS, IT APPEARS WIND WILL INCREASE AND IT WILL BECOME  
BREEZY ON THURSDAY AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OF 15 TO  
25 WERE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AND MAY BE NEEDED LONGER. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH  
CONFIDENCE IS MIXED. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY. MODELS  
HOVE YET TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  
SOME GUIDANCE ALSO WANTS TO HAVE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES FOR  
THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS TIME TO SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EAST WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH BY THURSDAY, IN RESPONSE TO  
A CIRCULATION THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF GUAM AND THEN TO THE WEST  
AND NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO FRESH  
AND LIKELY TO STRONG AS THE MONSOON INCREASES BY FRIDAY. A SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF  
ADVISORY AND WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE NECESSARY AT A POINT DURING THE  
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO  
BECOME HIGH.  
 

 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
SATELLITE SHOWS THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS  
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF 10N. A MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE  
REGION AND WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE MAINLY  
NORTH OF POHNPEI, KOSRAE AND MAJURO TODAY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  
SLOWLY DEVELOPING WEST OF CHUUK SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE THE MONSOON  
TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD, AND A RELATIVELY DRY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO  
RETURN THIS WEEKEND FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA.  
 

 
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (INVEST 99W) NORTHWEST OF CHUUK WILL BE THE  
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE COMING DAYS. WET MONSOON FLOW HAS BEEN  
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS  
IN EFFECT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND YAP, AND  
SEA CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR KOROR. MODELS DIFFER QUITE  
A BIT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF 99W, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE  
SLOW MOVING SO INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK, YAP AND  
KOROR WHILE THE DISTURBANCE IS NEARBY. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY  
MOVE AT LEAST A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS  
WESTERN MICRONESIA BY THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...NONE.  
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NIERENBERG/SIMPSON  
 
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