529
FXPQ60 PGUM 101131
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
931 PM CHST FRI OCT 10 2008
UPDATE
RADAR HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO FILL IN WITH SHOWERS THE FIRST
FOUR HOURS OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...UPDATED TO REDUCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AS TROUGH MAY STILL COME THROUGH AS PROGGED...JUST A
BIT LATER AND THEREFORE PERHAPS A BIT SHORTER IN DURATION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 630 PM CHST FRI OCT 10 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
THE MORNING QUIKSCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARIANAS
AT ABOUT 153E AT 20Z. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...AND
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF GUAM...EXTENDING OUT
TO THE EAST.
DISCUSSION...
BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
FOR THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
UKMET APPEARS TO TRUNCATE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND KEEPS
EVERYTHING SOUTH OF GUAM THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
MOVING IN TONIGHT...AND LATEST INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS ARE THAT
THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE
MOVED EVERYTHING FORWARD 12 HOURS AND NOW HAVE SCATTERED TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...BOTH GFS AND UKMET HINT AT ANOTHER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SAME WEAK
TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHOWERS NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT NOT YET
READY TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF MAJURO AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THIS EVENING. QUIKSCAT AND
925MB ANALYSIS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THE ITCZ IS NICELY
SITUATED SOUTH OF MAJURO EASTWARD AND THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
WHICH ACTS LIKE A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF KOSRAE. CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND WILL NOT IMPACT
MAJURO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FCST WATERS. IN
POHNPEI...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEST-MOVING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
POHNPEI TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. KOSRAE WILL BE MAINLY QUIET DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO SAIL
INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LAYER OF LOW TO MID-CLOUDS EAST OF
CHUUK ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CHUUK BY SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND TSTMS SOUTH OF GUAM HAVE MOVED ACROSS YAP THIS EVENING...WITH
MORE BEHIND THIS BULK OF SHWRS TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT. KEPT KOROR
MAINLY QUIET TONIGHT BUT EXPECT WX BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A
DEVELOPING TROUGH FROM THE EAST HEADS TOWARD KOROR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HRS.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
STANKO/CHAN
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