734  
FNUS73 KDMX 041004  
FWSDMX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HAYFIELD FIRE...MAHASKA CO DISPATCH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
504 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 CDT ON AUGUST 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED.  
 
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY  
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON DRYING OUT THE FUELS AS  
MIXING OCCURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 80% EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30 PERCENTS BY MIDDAY INTO THIS  
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THIS  
SPOT LOCATION.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1200-34000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (72500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING,  
THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (165600 KNOT-FT)  
IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(107700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 16 TO  
22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
SOUTH 26 TO 33 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING  
DECREASING TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........21 26 25 25 24 23 25 32 38 43 44 44  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............68 68 72 77 82 85 87 90 91 91 91 89  
RH..............78 81 73 64 56 50 46 41 38 37 38 41  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 12 13 15 16 17 18 18 18 17 16  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 14 16 18 21 22 24 28 28 28 26 24  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10  
EYE LVL WND GST.6 8 10 11 13 13 14 17 17 17 16 14  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 12 16 22 26 30 32 33 33 30 23  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6  
SDSPL KT-FT/10001 2 7 18 34 73 118 166 194 212 211 108  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1200-34400 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........46 43 33 24 18 16  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............87 82 76 74 72 70  
RH..............43 53 66 69 71 73  
20 FT WIND......S 15 S 12 S 8 S 8 S 9 S 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.23 10  
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 9 S 7 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5  
EYE LVL WND GST.14 6  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 6 S 8 S 9 S 10 S 12  
HAINES INDEX....6 6 5 5 5 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/100034 1 2 2 2 3  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2400-32500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (54800-96800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(125300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (89700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 24  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........19 18 24 34  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............69 79 90 94  
RH..............78 62 45 40  
20 FT WIND......S 8 SW 12G14 SW 12G15 SW 10G14  
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5 SW 7G8 SW 7G9 SW 6G8  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 SW 17 SW 22 SW 24  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5  
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 20 76 153  
 

 
FORECASTER...ANSORGE  
REQUESTED BY...MAHASKA CO DISPATCH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1814061.0/DMX  
.DELDT 08/04/18  
.EMAIL SHERIFF@MAHASKACOUNTY.ORG,JROBINSON@MAHASKAEMA.COM  
 
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