932  
FNUS73 KOAX 230931  
FWSOAX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FARM CREEK PWA...POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY CONSERVATION BOARD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
431 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON MARCH 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A  
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LIKELY. SOME CLEARING, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL  
INCREASE TEMPERATURES. VERY LOW FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE  
CLEARING MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AND  
SOGGY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 38 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (34500-65800 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........99 99 99 86 79 77  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD  
TEMP............42 45 49 55 61 66  
RH..............67 72 71 65 60 56  
20 FT WIND......SE 12 SE 14 SE 15 S 16 S 16 S 16  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 30 30 30 30  
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1500 1600 2000 2000 1700  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 30 S 32 S 35 S 37 S 38 S 36  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/100035 40 49 63 66 53  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-28100 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM  
SKY (%).........80 77 77 77 83 87  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
TEMP............67 63 60 60 60 58  
RH..............54 59 66 69 73 78  
20 FT WIND......S 14 S 12 S 12 S 13 S 12 S 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 25 30 25 20  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 500 200 300 300 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 30 S 29 S 29 S 26 S 24 S 21  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 4 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/100028 11 5 6 5 1  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 30 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 13 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 7  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4400-44100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (37500-76500 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO  
FAIR (21200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........91 94 91 80 81 83  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
TEMP............56 57 61 65 67 66  
RH..............83 79 72 65 59 59  
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SE 9 SE 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1700 2900 3400 3500 3200  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 S 26 S 30 S 25 S 21 S 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 44 73 75 63 38  
 

 
FORECASTER...KERN  
REQUESTED BY...CHAD GRAEVE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1704986.0/OAX  
.EMAIL CHAD.GRAEVE@POTTCOUNTY-IA.GOV  
 
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