211  
FNUS75 KMSO 170051  
FWSMSO  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER CREEK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
651 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 MDT ON AUGUST 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
..FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
 
 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT  
FRIDAY NIGHT...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. A MIX OF DRY AND WET  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 1400. INITIALLY, DRY THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW  
WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING, WET SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE WETTING  
RAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING PROVIDING GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.  
 
   
FRIDAY
 
 
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...60 PERCENT.  
* LAL.................4.  
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.  
* MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.  
* WIND (20 FT)........MIDSLOPES: SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH.  
RIDGES: WEST 7-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.  
* MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12500 FT  
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.  
* HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.  
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.10 INCHES.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER SUNSET.  
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...60 PERCENT.  
* LAL.................4.  
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.  
* MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.  
* WIND (20 FT)........WEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH BECOMING  
DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH AFTER 2200.  
* MIXING HEIGHT.......12500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
* MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.  
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.15 INCHES.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...50 PERCENT.  
* LAL.................2.  
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
* MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.  
* WIND (20 FT)........MIDSLOPES: NORTHWEST 4-7 MPH.  
RIDGES: NORTHWEST 7-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH.  
* MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
* MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 MPH.  
* HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.  
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.04 INCHES.  
 

 
FORECASTER...LUKINBEAL/DICKERSON  
 
REQUESTED BY...SHANE TOSSE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1814633.0/MSO  
.DELDT 08/16/18  
 
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