169  
FXUS65 KBOI 240226  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
826 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOUND THIS EVENING WITH  
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WIND  
ALSO NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS  
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
EVENING CHANGES TO FORECAST ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE  
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS, WITH  
GUSTS 30-35 KTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS  
EVENING, DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K  
FEET MSL NORTHWEST 20-30 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS  
EXPECTED SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE  
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BOISE MOUNTAINS, BUT THESE WILL END  
AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE  
WILL BE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MT AND INTO  
WESTERN WY, LEAVING OUR AREA IN RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. IT  
IS ALSO HELPING CREATE MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM  
AROUND MOUNTAIN HOME SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.  
WINDS THERE ARE SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH, AND  
THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT, AND BY MONDAY WE WILL BE UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE  
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING, AND TEMPS  
WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO  
BAKER AND NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTIES MONDAY, RESULTING IN TEMPS  
REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AS SUNDAY OR EVEN COOLING A COUPLE  
DEGREES, BUT FROM ROUGHLY ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST, TEMPS WILL RISE  
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES MONDAY (COMPARED TO SUNDAY). THIS WILL  
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, WITH 70S AND EVEN SOME 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL  
CROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A 10  
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE  
AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER AS THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BACKS INTO  
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE COLD  
FRONT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER, AND ISOLATED  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND  
THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN  
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MILD COOL DOWN ALONG WITH  
SHOWERY, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.  
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD  
(SOUTHWARD), BRINGING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THOSE AREAS. MODELS STILL NOT IN COMPLETE  
AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OR ITS EXITING SPEED, SO PLENTY  
OF UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 5  
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS RECEDING TO JUST A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...KB  
AVIATION.....JDS  
PREV SHORT TERM...SP  
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH  
 
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