388
FXUS65 KBOI 091037
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
335 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...A POTENT
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIGHT
PRECIP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...BELIEVE OUR ZONES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID MATCH MEDFORD HOWEVER ON OUR WESTERN FLANK
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
EXCLUDED FOG FROM TODAYS FORECAST BASED ON THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND ALSO THE ABSENCE OF ANY STATION REPORTING
FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THINS OR ERODES TO SOME EXTENT WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP DRY
LAYER ABOVE. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FLOW MAY LEAD
TO A BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEDNESDAY AND MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE
SHOWN THIS TREND IS THE CURRENT GRIDS. AS ALWAYS IN LOW CLOUD
SITUATIONS WITHOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION...MAX TEMP FORECASTS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF SKY COVER.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LONGWAVE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN U.S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES. FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS
STILL TIMED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR SE OREGON ZONES AND AFTERNOON
FOR SW IDAHO AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SECOND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY BRINGING GREATER QPF
AMOUNTS /UP TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN SW ID MTNS/. MINOR AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT STORM TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SUN/MON WITH
EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL ID ZONES SEEING BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP.
AVIATION
VFR WITH WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL STRATUS OVER SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO WILL ERODE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF KBNO-KBOI-TWF LINE THROUGH
THE DAY. AREAS THAT BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON COULD DEVELOP IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOWER FOG/STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM....DG/BB
AVIATION.....DG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page