216
FXUS65 KBOI 042043
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ONCE AGAIN STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND
INCREASE AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. STRONG WINDS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD FAR BEYOND THE LOCAL VICINITY OF THE
STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE KNOWN AS OUTFLOW WINDS...SO BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY WINDS EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT NEAR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE IN THE TREASURE OR MAGIC VALLEYS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...RESULTING IN
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO
FAR WILL BE TOMORROW...AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...COMBINED WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR TOASTY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SWEPT EASTWARD
TOMORROW...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE HITS MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND REDUCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
INTO THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S FOR THOSE FOLKS THAT
HAVE BEEN IN THE 90S FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE DRY AIR
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND...TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
ACROSS EAST/CENTRAL OREGON AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO WESTERN IDAHO. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPPER
RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACNW COAST WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIMIT MOISTURE FROM THE SW.
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER CELLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IN SE OREGON WILL RESULT IN
LESS CONVECTION. MAIN AVIATION THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/BB
AVIATION.....JS
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