878  
FXUS65 KPIH 171857  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
1257 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM  
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS AROUND MACKAY, ASHTON HAVE RECEIVED  
ANYWHERE FROM .75 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST 48 HOURS. SOME  
STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE NOT VERY FAR BELOW BANKFULL. THE FORECAST  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING CALLS FOR  
ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE SAWTOOTH  
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED.  
CURRENTLY THERE IS A DRY SLOT THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO  
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ADDED  
TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. THE MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS BEGIN THIS EVENING  
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY, WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW  
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE  
SATE BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THIS CHANGING WIND PATTERN, THE FOCUS  
OF PRECIPITATION CAN SHIFT TO DIFFERENT FACING SLOPES OF THE  
TERRAIN, GIVING MANY AREAS A SHOT AT SOME RAIN, JUST NOT EVERYBODY  
AT THE SAME TIME. LATEST MODEL RUNS FAVOR SOME HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING  
OVERNIGHT AROUND MACKAY AND CLAYTON AREA. A SECOND AREA IS FAVORED  
NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS AROUND DUBOIS, SMALL, MONIDA PASS. BOTH AREAS  
ARE UNDER THE FLOOD WATCH. RS  
   
LONG TERM
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL MOVE  
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE  
MODELS HAVE SOME REAL GAPS IN CONTINUITY AND WITH EACH OTHER NOW,  
MAKING IT HARD TO TREND THE FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. THE BEST  
CHANCES STILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WE  
LOOK TO EVENTUALLY STARTING DRYING OUT IN ABOUT 7 DAYS OR SO. KEYES  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM, BUT LOWERED  
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. KEYES  
 

 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR IDZ018-019-032.  
 

 
 

 
 
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