255  
FXUS65 KPIH 231958  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
158 PM MDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
WEAK IMPULSE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MIXED WITH  
HEATING INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER  
ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM HOLBROOK AREA EAST TO THE WYOMING  
BORDER. CUR.SHORT TERM...WEAK IMPULSE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE  
MIXED WITH HEATING INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
TO LINGER ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM HOLBROOK AREA EAST TO  
THE WYOMING BORDER. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY IN  
WESTERN UTAH HEADED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND,  
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE  
EXPECTED. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST  
WILL HELP INCREASE THE FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN A HEALTHY DOSE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGER  
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THESE PASS OVER ANY RECENT BURN SCARS FLASH  
FLOODING MAY RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE SOME 10 DEGREES ON  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT WITH  
HUMIDITIES RAPIDLY RISING IT WILL FEEL MUGGY OVER ALL THE REGION.  
VP  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LINGERING AFFECTS FROM  
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CONTINUED  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND, EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S WITH DRYING  
CONDITIONS. ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  
VP  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MAIN AIRPORT LOCATIONS WILL SEE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW  
MID-DAY. THOSE FLYING ALONG THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER FROM MALTA INTO  
WYOMING EXPECTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VIRGA AND ERRATIC  
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT CONVECTION TO  
BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45  
MPH.  
VP  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ZONE 413 THROUGH  
THIS EVENING ALONG A DISTURBANCE THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN WYOMING  
SOUTHWEST INTO NEVADA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HAVE  
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON-9PM MONDAY FOR ZONES 425 AND 427  
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP OVER SW IDAHO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND TRACK EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CABLE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW  
WINDS TO 45 MPH. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG FOR OTHER  
AREAS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE  
GREATER THAN ISOLATED. CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE WEDNESDAY.  
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST (2-2.5X CLIMATOLOGY) TUE-WED  
SO 'WET' THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET, WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRENDING  
INCREASINGLY DRY FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE SALMON-CHALLIS.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE EACH DAY AS A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.  
AD  
 

 
 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ425-427.  
 

 
 

 
 
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