988
FXUS65 KPIH 071032
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
332 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT PERHAPS LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ABOVE THOSE LEVELS. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GK
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THRU WED AS A NEW UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT. ISOLD
SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CEN MTNS ON TUE...MAINLY ON WINDWARD
SLOPES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY WED AS THE UPPER
TROF MOVES INLAND. THE GFS HAS THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE FCST
AREA ON WED. PRECIP DIMINISHES IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THU AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
FCST AREA MTNS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GEN
AGREEMENT THRU WED...BUT DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE TROF TO THE WEST THRU THURSDAY. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER SW ID BY FRI MORN. THE GFS HAS A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER NV. THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE A STRONGER CASE FOR PRECIP ON FRI.
WILL BE KEEPING LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN MTNS ON FRI...BUT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER
TROF THRU ON SAT...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NRN MTNS. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A TROF INTO THE AREA ON SAT...
BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE. TEMPS WILL STAY COOL THRU THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. HEDGES
AVIATION
SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU THE CEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TODAY...AND TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTN. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSUN THIS MORNING.
LIFR CIGS/FG WILL REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. HEDGES
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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