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FXUS65 KPIH 152017
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2008
DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY.
RESULTING IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE. BOTH 12Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW THIS. WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MTNS TUE THRU WED. THE TWO
MODELS DIVERGE DRASICALLY BY THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING RIDGING AND
THE ECMWF SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE FCST AREA. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO STAKE A POSITION...SO WILL CARRY ONLY LOW MTN POPS ON
THU...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. HEDGES
AVIATION
SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE AREA TODAY. WAVE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT AND ALONG WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. TREND FROM HERE ON OUT IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. KEYES
FIRE WEATHER
TREND TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER/DRIER WEATHER
CONTINES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VALLEY HIGS WILL JUMP INTO THE 70S
AND 80S WITH WITH AFTN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS FOR TYPICALLY DRIER LOCALES EXPECTED WITH POOR RH RECOVERY AT
NIGHT IN MID SLOPE AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON TIMING OF
RIDGE BREAKDOWN BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE AREA WILL BE AT THE EARLIEST TUES. KEYES
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.
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