334  
FXUS66 KOTX 182339  
AFDOTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA  
439 PM PDT MON JUN 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL IMPACT THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SLOW MOVING AND  
WET THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE  
80S TO LOW 90S AND THEN MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TONIGHT: UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY IN  
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. WRAP  
AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
EAST. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
NORTH ID AND INTO SPOKANE COUNTY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE  
PALOUSE INTO SHOSHONE COUNTY AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE HRRR HAS  
BEEN PERSISTENT ALL DAY IN SHOWING PRECIP STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH  
AS THE ID/CANADIAN BORDER AND DOWN THROUGH SPOKANE THIS EVENING.  
HAVE INCREASED OUR CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN  
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXCEPT FOR  
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PULLMAN, WHERE RAIN WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL  
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRETTY WARM...IN  
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: UNSETTLED WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY GROWS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER AN INCH ARE FORECAST. WE ARE IN  
BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND STORM MOTION FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP  
WILL BE VERY SLOW. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN  
IMPACT AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND AREAS  
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS TO LOOKOUT PASS.  
 
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY: A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE  
REGION AND BRING SOME STRONG ENERGY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UP  
INTO NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THUR  
MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD  
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADDED  
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN WA (UP TO THE SPOKANE AREA) AND THE SOUTHERN ID  
PANHANDLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A  
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THAN ANY OTHER DAY THIS  
WEEK AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALMOST ALL  
LOCATIONS HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. (THE ONE  
EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND WENATCHEE) PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL  
REMAIN HIGH WILL VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE  
AGAIN BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOOKED AT THE  
HAIL THREAT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE  
FORECAST. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MAY BE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT LARGE  
HAIL. THIS ISN'T A TYPICAL STRONG WIND PATTERN EITHER. THE ONLY  
STRONG WINDS I COULD SEE HAPPENING IS IF THEY DEVELOP OUT OF THE  
HEAVY RAIN FALLING WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW, OUR MAIN IMPACT  
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, BUT THERE  
IS ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN, THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT  
IS A RATHER QUICK MOVER, AND THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  
NORTHERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ID PANHANDLE AND THEN A DRY  
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHERE  
THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE WINDS AND NOT PRECIP. BUT A LOT CAN  
CHANGE WITH THE MODELS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAFS: A BAND OF RAIN FROM SANDPOINT TO WALLA WALLA WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO KCOE, KPUW  
AND KLWS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCOE, BUT AT KPUW AND  
KLWS MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TOO LOW AT KLWS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF, BUT I  
DID PUT A LOW CIG IN THE KPUW TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AT  
KEAT AND KMWH. RJ  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SPOKANE 58 80 59 84 61 82 / 70 10 10 10 10 50  
COEUR D'ALENE 57 78 56 84 59 81 / 70 20 20 10 10 60  
PULLMAN 55 74 55 81 59 78 / 90 50 40 10 10 60  
LEWISTON 60 78 59 87 64 84 / 90 40 40 10 10 60  
COLVILLE 58 84 57 87 58 86 / 10 10 10 20 10 50  
SANDPOINT 57 79 54 82 57 80 / 40 20 10 10 10 60  
KELLOGG 52 73 52 80 57 78 / 70 50 30 20 10 60  
MOSES LAKE 58 87 60 91 63 90 / 20 10 10 10 20 20  
WENATCHEE 62 87 66 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 10  
OMAK 61 87 62 90 61 89 / 0 10 10 40 20 30  
 

 
   
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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